Baseball Returns

Today's post is partially to remind myself that I'm still out here in baseball land, and partially to get some of the Spring Training excitement out of my system.

I haven't written much lately, mostly because I've been gearing up for the defense of my PhD dissertation (and making subsequent revisions).  With everything about to be finally handed in this week, I'm just about to be ready for baseball overload!

In terms of what to expect from the blog over the coming weeks, here it is.  I'm getting close to being done my 2012 prospect wrap ups (almost finished the writing part, I'll get to posting them by the end of March).

Also, it looks like I'll be heading down to Florida for a week or so of Spring Training, which, I hope, will get me some great content for the blog.

I did think about writing a preview of the coming season and what we can expect/not expect from this revamped 2013 Blue Jays squad, but just about every blogger has pretty much beaten me to it (I've been busy with other things).

While some think the Jays are going to be the "Beast in the East" (like Yahoo!'s Tim Brown), personally, I'm not so sure.  I have a lot of questions about this team.  While we're far deeper than we were last year with a much more balanced team on offense and defense, there are still things that we can't count on.

Questions:

1. Which version of Ricky Romero will show up?
2. Is Melky for real?
3. Who's gonna play second base, and whoever it is, can he hit enough to not wish for Aaron Hill back?
4. Can Jose Reyes stay injury free?
5. Is Jose Bautista's wrist good to go?
6. Is EE for real?
7. Can Mark Buehrle give us another 200 inning season of solid ball?
8. How does Josh Johnson hold up in the AL East?
9. Does Brett Lawrie progress or not?
10. Bullpen pt. 1: Are Casey and Sergio ready for opening day?
11. Bullpen pt. 2: Can Steve Delabar and Esmil Rogers repeat what they did after their mid-season trades last year?
12. Bullpen pt. 3: Who's gonna make the last couple of spots?
13. Anyone remember Adam Lind?
14. Mark Delarosa?  Really?
15. Will Colby Rasmus actually be able to be good.... ever?

So as you can see, there are a lot of questions.  However, I think it bodes well to see that my question about Brett Lawrie is #9.  However, it doesn't bode all that well to think that John Gibbons is talking about batting him 5th in the order.

So here's my biggest concern:  You've got a potentially fantastic top 4 in the order in Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista and Encarnacion IF they all have good years.  But they all have questions about their ability to come back and put up those kinds of numbers in 2013.  Reyes's durability, Cabrera's PED-less body, Bautista's wrist and Encarnacion's one big season all beg the kinds of questions that could make the Blue Jays somewhat less than they are expected to be.

With a 5-9 of Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia, Izturis/Bonifacio, and Lind/Davis, there are a lot of IFs in this lineup.

Only time will answer these questions.

Prospects! part 9: Vancouver Canadians - Pitching

The Ace: Taylor Cole
Top of the Lists: Roberto Osuna
The Big Arm: Daniel Norris

Photo: Sheri Sommerfeld, Vancouver Courier

The biggest thing working against Taylor Cole is his advanced age for Short Season ball of 23.  He was only drafted in 2011 (29^th round) but missed a couple years of development due to a Mormon mission.  According to Marc Hulet (of Fangraphs), Cole has lost quite a bit on his fastball (which is now in the 87-90 mph range).  He has a below average fastball but an above average curveball but absolutely dominated the Northwest League in 2012. The numbers are jawdropping: In 12 regular season appearances and 66 1/3 innings, Cole gave up 6 runs, 36 hits, 17 walks and struck out 57.  ERA: 0.81.  WHIP: 0.80.  Cole will certainly be pitching in full season ball and Hulet gives him a maximum projection (with better fastball command) of a back end starter or middle reliever.

Photo: Toronto Sun

If you could pinpoint the fasting rising Blue Jays prospect in 2012, it would no doubt have to be Roberto Osuna (current MLB.com ranking - #3).  Osuna still isn’t 18 years old yet, but has held his own in the Mexican League as a 16 year old (equivalent of AA to AAA) and seriously outclassed hitters in Rookie League Bluefield and Short Season A Vancouver.  John Sickels and Marc Hulet has him as the #2 remaining prospect in the Jays system (Minor League Ball and Fangraphs respectively) and an author on Baseball Prospectus calls him a “Personal Favourite” while Jason Parks’s ranking has him at the #4 remaining prospect.  Why all this love for Osuna (especially after the Jays gave him $1.5 million as an international free agent)?  He only throws with slightly above average velocity (Hulet says 93-95 mph) but features at least 2 other plus pitches (slider and “splitterish changeup”).  In addition to his excellent repertoire, he is already showing incredible command.  I can see Osuna getting piggybacked to start the season in Lansing.  Oh, don’t forget his first appearance in Vancouver this year.  5 innings pitched – 1 hit, 1 walk, 13 strikeout.  Drool away, Jays fans.

Photo: Allen Greene

Looking strictly at the numbers from 2012, Daniel Norris (current mlb.com ranking: #2) had a very rough year which, I think the Blue jays organization is looking at as being a learning experience for their young left-hander in his first year of professional ball.  However, he had a very strong strikeout per 9 inning ratio (9.07 K/9 over 2 levels) and had a very high BABIP of .367 and a very respectable FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate of 3.81.*  Norris turns 20 this April, so his rough first year puts him behind the rate of development that the Lansing 3 had, but it is thought that he is still refining his rough mechanics and when he gains consistency there, his numbers, on the surface, will improve.  Scouts love his stuff -- he throws in the low 90s and has a good changeup that improved a lot during the season.  Once he improves his curveball, he should be one to watch in 2013.  It will most likely take another year with poor overall numbers for Norris's stock to fall. 

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* BABIP is Batting Average on Balls In Play.  It is thought that pitchers have very little control over their BABIP because they don't really control what happens after the ball leaves their hand.  League average is usually around .300 (give or take 10 points), so a .367 BABIP means that he was unusually unlucky.  FIP is read much like an ERA.  The lower the better, and league average is around 4.00 or so.

Prospects! part 8: Lansing Lugnuts - hitting

The Doubles Machine: K.C. Hobson
Disappointment: Kellen Sweeney, Michael Crouse
On the Rise: Dalton Pompey, Andy Burns
Gone, baby, gone: Carlos Perez
The Slugger: Kevin Patterson

Photo: Whitecap Wendy

1B K.C. Hobson posted strong numbers in his third year of pro-ball for the Lansing Lugnuts (and is currently playing winter ball in the Australian Baseball League).  The 22 year old repeated in Lansing for the 2nd full season (with 92 ABs in 2010) and showed tremendous improvement, particularly to his power game.  While he posted a 26 point batting average increase year to year, it was his 100 point SLG increase that made people think that he's figured a few things out.  He almost doubled his doubles output (from 24 to 43, setting a Lugnuts record) and more than doubled his HR totals (from 4 to 10).  He also posted a healthy OBP of .346 in 2012 telling me that he should probably make a move to Dunedin in 2013.

Photo: Laura Truax

Since being a 2nd round draft pick in 2010, Kellen Sweeney has not particularly impressed anyone with his performances.  After 2 years in Bluefield (albeit in only 80 ABs combined), he had a grand total of 1 HR.  Still, the Jays felt he could start in Lansing in 2012 and did so to  a rousing failure.  After 140 ABs posting a .540 OPS (with 0 HRs) in Lansing, he was demoted to Vancouver where he did fare better.  For the Canadians, he hit .229 (although posting a respectable .330 OBP) but still slugged only .397, hitting 5 HR over 245 ABs.  On the bright side, Sweeney will only be 21 for most of the 2013 season and showed quite a bit of improvement in Vancouver throughout the end of the summer with OPSs of .706 and .802 for July and August (respectively). 

Photo: Unknown

Michael Crouse was part of the highly touted trio of talented outfielders in Lansing in 2011.  All 3 had a great season and all three were expected to spend 2012 in Dunedin terrorizing pitching in the Florida State League.  This plan was derailed by the players themselves with all 3 starting off slowly and only Marisnick having what could be seen as a decent year before moving up to AA (and being traded in the offseason).  Following up a 2011 in which he stole 38 bases, had 45 extra-base hits (including 14 HRs) and put up an OPS of .827, Crouse had the worst year of the trio, with a .645 OPS (including a .203 BA) in Dunedin over 202 ABs.  He must have taken his demotion to Lansing hard, because he proceeded to hit WORSE there, with a .598 OPS in 124 ABs.  He struck out a lot and is looking to rebound in 2013.  I can't even speculate as to where he's going to be able to land to start the season.

Photo: Daniel Jarrett/MLB Prospect Portal

Dalton Pompey has risen through the ranks to break into Jays Journal top 30 list, which ranks him at #23 (probably before the trades).  Pompey is a 20 year old toolsy outfielder from Mississauga who, despite limited playing time in 2012 (due to injury), has impressed the team's staff.  Since his stats are pretty much irrelevant (although he had a .292/.442/.441 slash line in 11 games in Vancouver), I'll talk about what scouts say about him.  Most believe that he can make good and solid contact with marginal power (some say 10-15 HRs a year), but it's his speed that makes him stand out.  He already shows an ability to steal bases very efficiently (stealing 5 in 6 attempts last season).  Pompey, finishing the season with 22 ABs in Lansing, will most likely start 2013 there, playing in full-season ball at only 20 years old.  With a good season there, he will be on a lot more top prospect lists in 2014.  Oh, and he's Canadian.

Photo: Larry Hook

Andrew (Andy) Burns was a 2011 draftee and had an underwhelming season, mostly in Vancouver, in 2011, but showed some of that talent clicking in 2012, playing a solid season in Lansing.   In 278 ABs, he had a .248/.351/.464 triple slash line with 9 HRs.  Jays Journal bloggers have been impressed with him, and if he shows some more improvement, he could be a useful high minor leaguer. 

Photo: Larry Hook

The only reason that Kevin Patterson makes this list is that he led the Lugnuts in HRs in his age-23 season.  By a lot.  The next closest batter to Patterson in HRs for Lansing was Hobson who hit 9 fewer dingers in almost 100 more ABs.  Scouting reports say that Patterson may still have trouble with the outside pitch, and his advanced age (he'll be 24 for the 2013 season) means that he's most likely an organizational guy who will play wherever the Jays need a 1B in their organization.

Prospects! part 7: Lansing Lugnuts - pitching

Gone, Baby, Gone: Justin Nicolino, Anthony DeSclafani, , David Rollins, Noah Syndergaard
The Lansing Three Two Guy: Aaron Sanchez
Dark Horses: Javier Avendano, Tyler Ybarra

Photo: Emily Jones/MiLB.com

Aaron Sanchez (current MLB.com ranking* - #1) draws raves from just about everyone.  The tall 20 year old righty throws in the mid-90s and impresses with his secondary pitches.  He has a great curve and decent change.  The big knock is his command and control, as can be seen by his 51 walks in 90 1/3 innings in 2012 to go with his 97 strikeouts.  I don't need to write a lot about Sanchez because you're going to be hearing a lot from him over the next couple of seasons until he reaches the majors.  The Blue Jays were very cautious with the innings totals of Sanchez, Syndergaard and Nicolino and the thought is that the Jays will let them throw more innings (maybe up to 130 or so) in 2012 beginning in Dunedin. 

Photo: Vancouver Sun

Javier Avendano is a name that will be on a lot of lips in 2013.  He had an outstanding season in Vancouver and started the year working out of the bullpen in Lansing to get him in some games early.  Originally signed by St. Louis, the Blue Jays picked him up in the minor league portion of the Rule V draft (much like Gabe Jacobo) and wanted to take a look at him as a starter so they sent him down to Vancouver where he played the role of co-ace with teammate Taylor Cole.  Now 22 (but 21 throughout the season), Avendano throws major league quality heat (around 92 mph) with a changeup, a curve, and a sinker to go with it.  Because he logged quite a few innings in 2012 (108 1/3 between the two levels), Avendano will most likely not have a restrictive limit in 2013 and will probably start in Lansing (although I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a promotion quickly if he continues to dominate).  How dominant was he?  Well, in Vancouver, he posted a 1.27 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, a 30.1% strikeout ratio, and only an 8.3% walk ratio.  This Venezuelan will be on the fast track this year and may join Sanchez in Dunedin by mid-summer.

Photo: WhitecapWendy (taken from www.jaysprospects.com)

In two years since returning from a year off due to family issues, Tyler Ybarra has been making huge strides in his minor league career pitching the entire year in full-season A ball after a 2011 in Bluefield in Rookie ball (bypassing Short-Season A ball altogether).  While seeing a significant uptick in walks in 2012 (against much better competition), Ybarra actually increased his strikeout totals in fewer innings pitched.  Ybarra throws a low-90s fastball and a good slider which generates many of his strikeouts.  He should start 2013 in Dunedin and it will be interesting to see if the 23 year old maintains his success.

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* This is the rank of the player in MLB.com's team Top 20 rankings compiled by Jonathan Mayo.

Black Magic Working Some Voodoo

If reports from Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi are true, Darren Oliver is looking for either more money or a trade to Texas in order to return to baseball in 2013.

The Blue Jays and Oliver reached a deal last season on a contract for $4.5 million for 2012 with a team option for $3 million (with a $500,000 buy out) for 2013.  From what others have written, the front-loading of the contract was at Oliver's request, since he thought he would retire after the season.

What happened?  Well, Oliver was awesome last year.  Really awesome, and this off-season, the market for relievers has exploded (starting with Brandon League's 3-year, $22.5 million contract).  Now, Oliver wants more money to be convinced to spend the season further away from his family.

As many other bloggers have written, Black Magic signed a contract and that Alex Anthopoulos should hold him to it if he's going to play in 2013.

The only new thing that I have to say on this topic is this:  R.A. Dickey.

Dickey is VASTLY underpaid -- even more so than Oliver would be at $3 million.  Dickey is making $5 million in 2013.  A veteran CY YOUNG WINNER is making $5 million bucks.  Even when the Blue Jays take into account the extension he signed (for 2014 and 2015 at around $12 million each), he is STILL underpaid compared to just about everyone else in the free agent market.  Was Dickey asking the Mets to pay market value (as a free agent) for him?  No.  Was Dickey asking the Mets to renegotiate his current 2013 contract?  No.

Oliver appears to be a class act, and he is well within his rights to express his interest in being paid better to come back and pitch.  However, this smacks of a little bit of blackmail ("pay me more, or else"), and really leaves a bad taste in my mouth, so I can imagine how Alex Anthopoulos feels about it.

A contract is a contract.  R.A. Dickey seems to think so, why can't Darren Oliver?

Knuckleball!

It's a busy night for Blue Jays fans, so stay tuned for another blog post shortly following this one.

Earlier this evening, I attended the screening of the new documentary film Knuckleball! at Tall Boys Craft Beer House around Bloor and Ossington in Toronto.  This meet-up, organized by Minor Leaguer at Blue Bird Banter, showed me two things.  1 - How much buzz there is behind the Blue Jays this year, and 2 - How popular the Blue Jays blogging community has become.

The place was pretty packed tonight (exceeding the bar owners' expectations) and R.A. Dickey elicited several cheers a couple of times through the film.

The film itself, produced and directed by Rikki Stern and Annie Sundberg, was an informative and entertaining look at the knuckleball, primarily through the two active pitchers at the time of filming: Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey.

Part of the film was a mini-biography of the two hurlers, while the rest of it followed them through the 2011 season.  Unfortunately, this was a pretty uneventful season and the only drama that this storyline really tapped into was Wakefield's quest for his 200th victory with the Boston Red Sox.  However, the back-stories of both Wakefield and Dickey are so unorthodox that there was certainly interest created by looking at them.

I felt that there could have been a larger focus on the "outcast-ness" of knuckleballers within the baseball community, and although this is a theme of the film, it only seems to come out in interviews with some of the retired guys like Phil Niekro, Charlie Hough and Jim Bouton.  I felt like some of the stories of the older guys and more attention to the history of the pitch itself could have given the film a more compelling narrative, particularly since it ends with Wakefield retiring and passing the torch to Dickey.  I also thought that the directors squandered a magical moment where Dickey visits Hough in California and receives some sage advice that immediately pays dividends on the mound but was glossed over in the film.

The production values were excellent, and having lived in Boston and attended several games at Fenway Park, it was great to see that ballpark presented in all its glory in Hi-Def in the film.

For baseball fans, this is a great look at two of the modern day practitioners of baseball's most bizarre pitch and it definitely it sheds some light on the adversity that they continue to go through being the pitching community's odd men out.

Prospects! part 6: Dunedin Blue Jays - Hitting

MVP: Kevin Pillar
Disappointment: Marcus Knecht
A Great Start: Kevin Nolan

Photo: Unknown

Kevin Pillar was the MVP of the Midwest League with Lansing despite receiving the call-up to play in Dunedin for last 42 games there.  He is also playing in the Arizona Fall League hitting .371 and with an .845 OPS in 62 ABs.  Pillar is a little old for A ball (23) and will most likely make the jump up to AA in 2013.  Most scouts don't think that he has what it takes to make the majors, but that he makes the most out of average tools.  He doesn't have a lot of power or fantastic speed, but has been able to get it done in his 2 years of pro ball.  He hit .322 in Lansing and .323 in Dunedin, but really didn't take very many walks in his first exposure to the A-Advanced level.  Marc Hulet of Fangraphs likes his short swing and compared him to Reed Johnson.  If he has the kind of career that Johnson does, I might be pleasantly surprised.

Photo: Eddie Michels

Blue Jay fans should be tracking Marcus Knecht's career with great interest because he's a hometown boy.  Drafted in 2010 out of an American Junior college, Knecht had 2 great years and was pegged as a rising star, and one of a trio of excellent young outfield prospects in Lansing in 2011.  However, he had a bad year in 2012, hitting only .210 with Dunedin with a .302 OBP and a .389 SLG.  Scouting reports think that his defense isn't all that great, which means that to really put his career together, Knecht really needs to get it done with the bat.  What I found very interesting about comparing his numbers between 2011 and 2012 is that while there was a drop in walks and an increase in strikeout, they are not enormous ones, and he was still hitting for about the same amount of power (ISO* of .179 in 2012 over a .200 in 2011).  One thing to keep in mind is that in the past 2 years, Knecht has faded in the second half.  Basically Knecht's problem in 2012 seemed to be that he just wasn't getting enough hits.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Knecht repeat the level in 2012 and to see him start the year doing much better. 

Photo: Donten Photography

24-year-old SS Kevin Nolan was on his way to an outstanding season for the Dunedin Blue Jays when it all came apart with an injury that struck in July and caused him to miss the rest of the season.  In the end, in 310 ABs, Nolan hit .316/.384/.471 with 23 doubles, 5 home runs and 12 stolen bases.  From seeing some video on YouTube, Nolan has a smooth and quick swing which explains his ability to make solid contact.  Except for his first taste of pro ball in 2009, Nolan has hit pretty consistently all through the minors and he did spend most of the season in 2011 in Dunedin and showed improvement this year. Nolan hasn't shown much over-the-fence power and I don't really know much about his upside, but if he's a good fielder and can continue to hit, he may reach higher minor league levels over the coming seasons.

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*ISO is "Isolated Power" and is calculated by subtracting batting average from slugging percentage.