April 13 Minor League Report

Buffalo Bisons (3-3)

Games postponed due to rain.  Again.  Is there an echo in here?

New Hampshire Fisher Cats (6-4)

The Fisher Cats rebounded from a horrible pitching night on Friday with a dominant performance by the hurlers against the Binghamton Mets on Saturday culminating in a 6-1 victory.  Starter Ryan Tepera went 6 strong innings, giving up only one unearned run on three hits and two walks while striking out four.  The 25-year-old Tepera is now 2-0 in his two starts for the ‘Cats and is looking strong.  Meanwhile, Fernando Hernandez earned himself an old-fashioned three-inning save, allowing the rest of the bullpen to rest after Friday’s 15 run shellacking by throwing three innings of shutout ball.

Clint Robinson continues to swing a hot bat getting two hits for the Fisher Cats, while the rest of the club made the most of their seven hits and nine walks, scoring six on the Mets.  On the interesting side, Fisher Cats manager Gary Allenson was ejected in the sixth inning but we couldn't find any more information on that before posting.  An excellent example of the Fisher Cats’ patience at the plate was the 6^th inning.  The club scored three runs on one hit, one hit-by-pitch, and four walks.

Hitting:

Kenny Wilson – 1/4, R, BB, K, CS

John Tolisano – 0/4, BB, 2 K

Kevin Pillar – 1/4, R, RBI, HBP, SB

Clint Robinson – 2/5, 2 K

Brad Glenn – 1/3, 2 R, 2 BB, K

Ricardo Nanita – 0/2, RBI, 2 BB,

Kevin Ahrens – 0/2, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

Jack Murphy – 1/2, R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB

Amadeo Zazueta – 1/4, RBI, K

Pitching:

Ryan Tepera – W, 6 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, E

Fernando Hernandez  - S, 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game:  Ryan Tepera

Dunedin Blue Jays (7-2)

Chalk up another victory for the Dunedin Blue Jays as they scored all the runs they needed in the first and second innings while getting a strong start from Casey Lawrence in a 7-3 win over the Lakeland Flying Tigers.  Lawrence threw 6 2/3 innings giving up only two runs on four hits and a walk while Andy Burns continues to swing a hot bat.  I wrote about Burns here back in January as someone to watch, and he has definitely lived up to that label so far this season.  With another three for four night, Burns has brought his batting average up to .389 and hit his first home run of the season.  Also having a great start is 1B Gabe Jacobo.  Jacobo, who turns 26 tomorrow, is a player who (in my opinion) should really be playing at a higher level.  Unfortunately, in remaking their depth at first base this year, there really isn’t much room in AA or AAA with Clint Robinson, Adam Loewen, Luis Jiminez, and Mauro Gomez ahead of him.  All he did on Saturday night is hit another double (his third of the season) and drive in two more runs.  Jonathan Jones is another player making some noise early in the year, hitting his third double and stealing his fifth base of the year Saturday night.

Hitting:

Jonathan Jones – 2/4, 2 R, 2B, RBI, BB, SB,

Jon Berti  - 1/4, R, 2 K,

Andy Burns – 3/4, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI, K

Gabe Jacobo – 2/4, R, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K

Marcus Knecht – 1/4, SB

Matt Newman – 0/4, RBI, K

Pierce Rankin – 1/4

                Peter Mooney PR – 0/0

Aaron Munoz – 1/3, R, BB, K

Nick Baligod – 2/4

Pitching:

Casey Lawrence – W, 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR

Evan Crawford – 1 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

Ajay Meyer – 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game:  Casey Lawrence

Lansing Lugnuts (3-4)

Game postponed due to rain.

-----------------------------------------------------------

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter: @Jaysfromaway

42: A Review

Before I get to my review of 42, the bio-pic of American legend Jackie Robinson that arrived in theatres on Friday, I'll just have some housekeeping to let all you loyal readers know what's coming up in the next few days.

Tomorrow, I'll be down in Buffalo for their double header against Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and I'll be looking forward both to seeing Coca-Cola Field as well as the Bisons actually play this week.  If you're in the Toronto/Buffalo area, you'll know that the weather has not been, um... spring-like, and the fellows down the QEW have not been able to get any games in.

While I'm down at the ball park, I'll be taking notes and hopefully have some great information about the Jays' AAA affiliate for all of you.

Tomorrow and Monday, I'll be working on a couple of things for all of you as well.  I'll try to get my Pitching edition of "Streak or Trend?" up for Monday and I'll also have a wrap up of the first week and a half of Jays' minor league ball on Monday.  This will be a weekly feature that will look at who's hot and who's not, and what's going on with the Jays farm clubs.

Finally, the first edition of the Blue Jays from Away Podcast is in the works.  What I hope to be a weekly feature will involve interviews, and updates on the world of the Blue Jays.  There's lots of stuff going on in Blue Jays Land, from the disastrous Jose Reyes injury to some outstanding performances by Jays prospects.

I'll also be providing a review of Out of the Park Baseball 14 when I've gotten around to playing it enough to have opinions.  As you can see, it's a busy weekend, so that review won't come out for at least a week.

And now, the review.

42 is a difficult film to review for someone like me.  As a serious baseball fan who is interested in the history of the game, I know Jackie Robinson's story.  I know how heroic he and Branch Rickey were.  I know what kind of response he got and the taunting he had to endure in order to stick around.  And I know how difficult it is to make an inspiring story like this without making it sappy and maudlin.

Trying to see this film with fresh eyes, I can see that it accomplishes exactly what it set out to.  It presents Jackie Robinson's story to a new generation of people who may not even know who he was and it dramatizes the story to show him and his wife Rachel overcoming the segregation, marginalization and flat out racism that they faced.

42 also shows the divisions in the Dodgers' clubhouse that the black man's presence sowed.  While some players eventually welcomed Robinson to the team, others could not get over their lifetime of prejudice and were eventually traded away by General Manager Branch Rickey who wanted unity on the team.

Chadwick Boseman was a great choice for Robinson.  Serious and earnest, Boseman portrays Robinson as a man who is tired of accepting the second rate status that the colour of his skin affords him, especially in the deep south where he played often as a member of the Kansas City Monarchs.  A highlight of the film is Robinson's breakdown after being taunted to the brink of his self-control by Philadelphia manager Ben Chapman (played chillingly by Alan Tudyk).  Boseman plays the scene with necessary restraint while he's on the field but explodes in frustration after retreating to the tunnel underneath the stands where he is eventually counselled by Rickey (Harrison Ford).

Playing Rickey, Ford shows more interest in actually acting (that is, in creating a character apart from himself) than he has in years.  Adopting some of Rickey's mannerisms and speech patterns, Ford portrays Rickey as a religious man who truly wants to make a societal change but covers his tracks with stories of wanting to take advantage of the spending power that the Brooklyn's black community had or being able to exploit a "market inefficiency" (to use Moneyball terminology) by tapping the huge reservoir of talent playing in the Negro Leagues.

I found Nicole Beharie's performance as Rachel (Rae) Robinson to be somewhat mannered and forced.  There are actors who have certain facial mannerisms that take me out of the moment: Beharie is a mouth actor.  For every emotion crossing her face, her mouth moves three or four times, making me watch the actor and not the character.

Not that the script really helped her out.  The characters don't really develop in 42.  Robinson is the stoic, serious ballplayer who breaks the colour barrier with the weight of the entire race on his shoulders.  Rachel is his loving, supportive wife.  Rickey is the white innovator.  It's the story that's the biggest selling point here, but it tries to insert a love story on top of Robinson's baseball story.  This love story isn't really a story.  There's no arc to it.  Jackie and Rachel are in love.  He gets his chance to make a secure living in the (white) Major Leagues.  They get married.  They have a child.  At the end of the film, they're still in love.  No real story here, it's just a part of Robinson's life that is depicted the same way throughout the film.  In a film that runs 128 minutes long, this could have been cut back considerably.

Another criticism that I have is that he direction and the music score are a little bit ham-handed to unnecessarily call attention to the drama.  Heroic horn melodies underscore the moments that writer/director Brian Helgeland wants to bring tears to our eyes.  The enormity of Robinson's accomplishments and the way that he wins over his teammates by his on-field success are highlighted by Hollywood obviousness.  I'm sure that this film is directed at the wider American public who doesn't have the fanatical interest in baseball that I do, but still, it would bother me even if it was a film about soccer.

I actually don't really mind the fact that Jackie's year in Montreal was simply skipped over in between the time Rachel discovers that she's pregnant and the birth of their daughter and replaced by a title that reads "8 months later."  I get it.  It's an American film about a great American legend. Let's not let a little old (much more progressive) country like Canada get in the way.  It's fine. (But if it's not fine, read here for a great article about Robinson's time in Montreal.*)

The one really annoying thing about this film was the way that I'm sure all baseball films will be made going into the future.  With a digital ball.  When the digital ball flies out of a real actor's hand and a real actor swings a bat and the digital ball goes flying unnaturally, it looks horrible.  Yes, a pitcher pitching to a batter who needs to hit the ball a certain way is probably the most difficult and uncontrollable part of making a baseball movie.  But hey, Mr. Helgeland.  We can tell it's fake.

Charlie Sheen looked like a power pitcher in Major League.  He even admitted to doing steroids while shooting to get his fastball into the mid-80s. The film was edited to look like Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn was a real flame thrower.  While Tim Robbins was utterly unconvincing as a power pitcher in Bull Durham, at least Nuke LaLoosh is actually throwing the ball.  Kevin Costner was certainly passable as a veteran catcher gunning for the minor league career home run title in Major League AND as an aging pitcher in For Love of the Game.

They had real minor leaguers playing the ball players in the movie.  Teach your actors to play, or at least use editing tricks to fool us.  A digital ball is just cheating.

So, all in all, 42 is not a bad film.  Heavy-handed?  Yes.  Too Hollywood for my taste?  Yes.  But it's entertaining, has a charismatic lead, a very good performance from Harrison Ford, and it tells an important story that everyone should know about.  Without baseball's colour barrier being broken, who knows how much longer the civil rights movement might have taken.  The symbol of baseball as America's game being integrated after World War II, where black soldiers had fought and died for their country, was extremely important to the country's psyche.  And it's about time that a major motion picture told that story to contemporary audiences.

----------------------------------------------------------

* Start reading about half way through the article: The Essay.

April 12 Minor League Report

Buffalo Bisons (3-3)

Game(s) postponed due to rain.  Again.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats (5-4)

The Fisher Cats had a 5-1 lead going into the bottom of the fourth inning when nine batters came to the plate and neither Tyson Brummett or Clint Everts could get any of them out.  Tommy Hottovy was the third Fisher Cat pitcher of the inning and managed to get Rhyne Hughes (who led the inning off with a HR) to strike out.  A couple of fielding errors led to the extension of the inning that finally resulted in eleven runs crossing the plate for the Binghamton Mets who won the game by a score of 15-7 when all was said and done. 

While the pitching was off its game Friday night, the hitting was just fine as they scored seven runs on thirteen hits.  Leading the charge was CF Kenny Wilson who is now hitting .361 on the season after a 4/5 night with a double.  2B John Tolisano is also off to a hot start with the bat, htiting .414 after a 3/5 night.  Tolisano and Wilson are both former second round draft picks and have been in the Jays system since 2007 and 2008 (respectively) and  now appear to be breaking out in this young 2013 season.

Hitting:

Kenny Wilson – 4/5, 2 R, 2B, 2 RBI, BB

Kevin Pillar – 2/5, R, 2B, RBI, SB, E

Ryan Schimpf – 2/5, R, 2B, RBI, BB, 2 K

Clint Robinson – 2/6, RBI, K

Adam Loewen – 1/6, 5 K

Kevin Nolan – 0/2, 3 BB, E

Ricardo Nanita - 2/4, R, RBI

Sean Ochinko – 2/5, R, 2B, RBI

John Tolisano – 3/5, R, 2 2B

Pitching:

Tyson Brummett - L, 3 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 HR

Clint Everts - 0 IP (4 batters), 1 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, WP

Tommy Hottovy - 2 IP, 3 H 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Trystan Magnuson - 2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 2 K

Joel Carreno - 1 IP, 1 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game:  Kenny Wilson

Dunedin Blue Jays (6-2)

The Dunedin Blue Jays scored in pairs four times and the outcome was never in any doubt due to the strong pitching from starter Efrain Nieves who, along with Scott Gracey and Dustin Antolin held the Lakeland Flying Tigers to one run on six hits in an 8-1 victory on Friday night.  The hitters slammed four doubles and a triple (3B Andy Burns had one of each) while Gabe Jacobo drove in four runs for the D-Jays. 

Matt Newman, who is taking over a regular role in the outfield with Michael Crouse on the DL upped his batting average to .538 on the season with a 2/3 night while Andy Burns is now hitting .344 after a 3/4 evening. 

Hitting:

Jon Berti  - 1/4, 2 R, BB, K

Peter Mooney –0/3, R, 2 BB, K, SB

Andy Burns – 3/4, 2 R, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB

Gabe Jacobo – 2/3, 2 R, 2B, 4 RBI

Kevin Patterson  - 2/5, 2B, RBI

Marcus Knecht – 0/3, BB, K

Matt Newman – 2/3, 2B, 2 RBI, K

Aaron Munoz - 0/3, BB

Jonathan Jones –1/4, R, K, 2 SB

Pitching:

Efrain Nieves - W, 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Scott Gracey - 2 IP, 2 H, 3 K

Dustin Antolin - 1 IP, K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game:  Andy Burns.  Honourable Mention to Efrain Nieves and Gabe Jacobo.

Lansing Lugnuts (3-4)

Nine innings weren't enough for the Lansing Lugnuts to finish their game Friday night before the rain delayed and caused its suspension after the top of the 12th inning in a 4-4 tie.  The Lugnuts have announced that the game will be resumed at 2:05 pm on Saturday, followed by the regularly scheduled game against the South Bend Silver Hawks.  The team led 4-2 going into top of the 9th of the Lugnuts' home opening when the Silver Hawks scored two runs with two outs of Chuck Ghysels on consecutive doubles followed by a passed ball, a walk and another single.  With the Lugnuts unable to answer, the game went into extra innings. 

The Lugnuts got a second great start from Alonzo Gonzalez, giving him the distinction of being the first Lansing starter to get two consecutive good starts.  He was followed by Wil Browning and Tucker Donahue who combined for three more scoreless innings and following Ghysels, Andrew Sikula and Ian Kadish have combined for 3 1/3 more scoreless.   With the bats, Dalton Pompey is 2/5 while Gustavo Pierre and Carlos Ramirez have a triple each. 

Hitting:

Dalton Pompey –  2/5, 2 R, K

Gustavo Pierre – 1/5, R, 3B, RBI, K, E

Christian Lopes – 0/4, RBI, 2 K, E

Balbino Fuenmayor – 1/4, K

Chris Hawkins - 0/5

Santiago Nessy – 1/5, PB

Kellen Sweeney - 1/3

Carlos Ramirez – 1/4, R, 3B

Jorge Flores – 1/4, RBI, CS, PO

Pitching:

Alonzo Gonzalez - 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 3 K, 1 HR, WP

Wil Browning - 2 IP, 2 H, 3 K, WP

Tucker Donahue - 1 IP, 1 H, 2 K

Chuck Ghysels - 2/3 IP, 3 H 2 R, 1 BB, 1 K

Andrew Sikula - 2 1/3 IP, 0 H, 3 BB, 2 K

Ian Kadish - 1 IP, 2 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game:  

Welcome to Baseball Weekend

It's Friday, and I'm excited.  No, not just because it's Friday, but because a whole group of baseball related activities are converging this weekend.

First, I have just downloaded my copy of Out of the Park Baseball 14 (OOTP 14), one of the greatest baseball simulation games there is.  I have been thoroughly addicted to this game since the 2012 version and have been looking forward to some of the new features and improvements that the manufacturer, OOTP Developments, has been promising.  Personally, I prefer playing in online leagues (and that's the only way I play OOTP 13 currently), but taking the new version for a test drive before leagues start to change over is always fun.  I'll be writing up a review when I've had a chance to delve into the game a little more in depth (which will take a week or so).  I know Tom Dakers over at Bluebird Banter has had a review copy for a bit  and he tells me that he really likes it (although I'll probably have to read his review to get his complete take on it).  Me and the other sim baseball nerds are gonna have a fun weekend!

Second, 42 opens this weekend.  Yes, I already have plans to see it this afternoon.  I've been getting all misty eyed at the trailers for months now and have seen that the film has garnered some solid reviews, but I'm trying to approach it without any preconceived notions.  I've heard that the writers/producers/directors sort of jumped over Robinson's very important year in Montreal before he went to Brooklyn for dramatic purposes.  I don't really mind that at this point (not having seen the film yet).  After all, I didn't really mind the changing of Argo's story to make America seem greater.  I mean, I mind, but it's Hollywood.  They're marketing films for Americans, not to depict Canada in a way that makes our country seem better than the US.

Third, I'll be spending all-day Saturday at an umpiring clinic north of Toronto.  I've spent fifteen summers of my life umpiring fast-pitch softball, but I've decided to get into baseball too this year.  After a telephone call to Baseball Ontario, they directed me to my local UICs and, long story short (ok, maybe not so long), I'll be spending Saturday in a classroom listening about rules I already know.  Hopefully they'll cover the things that I really NEED to know, like positioning for umpires on the bases and exactly what the rules are for a balk (don't get me started on the intricate details of softball's "Illegal Pitch").

Fourth, and finally, I'll be heading down to Buffalo on Sunday to take in my first Buffalo Bisons game.  We've been hit with rough weather this week and my original plan to head down this past Wednesday was pre-empted by weather.  I'm excited to head to watch baseball outdoors (although this isn't really the time of year for it) but also to see guys like Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra in action!

So, let the weekend of baseball begin!

April 11 Minor League Report

Buffalo Bisons (3-3)

Game postponed due to weather.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats (5-3)

It was a night of firsts (of the year) in Manchester, New Hampshire as the Fisher Cats pulled off a 3-1 win on Thursday in a close game against the Binghamton Mets.  Deck McGuire had his best outing in a long time, picking up his first win of 2013.  I’m wondering if McGuire made any adjustments for tonight’s game, mainly because he was inducing a lot of swinging strikes and keeping the ball very close to the strike zone, even when he missed (according to Gameday on MiLB.com).  Two more firsts were registered tonight as Adam Loewen, reassigned to AA, and Kevin Pillar each hit their first home runs of the season, providing all of the offense for the Fisher Cats on this night of fantastic pitching.

Roster notes: 1B/OF Adam Loewen and P Tyson Brummett were assigned to AA New Hampshire from AAA Buffalo today.  RP Randy Boone and OF Brian Van Kirk were placed on the DL and RHP Fernando Hernandez was activated off the DL and got into some game action tonight. 

Hitting:

Kenny Wilson – 1/4, K

Kevin Pillar – 2/4, R, 2B, HR, 2 RBI

Ryan Schimpf – 0/4, 2 K

Clint Robinson – 2/4, CS

Adam Loewen – 2/3, R, HR, RBI, BB, K

Kevin Nolan – 1/4, 2 K, E

Brad Glenn – 1/4,

Sean Ochinko – 0/3

John Tolisano – 1/2, R, BB, CS

Pitching:

Deck McGuire – W, 7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K, WP

Fernando Hernandez – 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 0 K

Chad Beck – S, 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game: Deck McGuire

Dunedin Blue Jays (5-2)

Dunedin played host to a marquee pitching matchup between Yankees prospect, 21-year-old Corey Black and the Jays’ #1 prospect, 20-year-old fireballer Aaron Sanchez, with Dunedin coming out on top 3-2 in 11 innings.  Sanchez proved unhittable through 5 despite throwing primarily fastballs the first time through the order.  He was hitting 97 and 98 mph on the radar gun and it looks like he’s really working on commanding that heat.  Tampa simply waited for him to come out of the game, promptly scoring two runs in the top of the sixth, both charged to rehabbing Evan Crawford who gave up two hits and walked a pair.  The bullpen held fast from then on, with Ajay Meyer, Tony Davis, and Marco Grifantini combining for five scoreless innings while only giving up four hits and no walks over that span. 

In the bottom of the 11^th, the offense almost didn’t get it done with 3B Andy Burns getting thrown out at home with one out.  However, that fielder’s choice left pinch runner Nick Baligod at second base with Gabe Jacobo at first with two outs.  The next batter, Marcus Knecht (who had driven in the D-Jays’ previous run) singled, scoring Baligod from second and finishing up the walk-off victory for the home squad. 

Don’t forget to tune into the Dunedin Blue Jays radio team of Tyler Murray and Patrick Kurish for their great job on the broadcast!  You can find details HERE.

Roster Notes: Evan Crawford was assigned to Dunedin after starting the season in New Hampshire, and OF Michael Crouse, and RP Shawn Griffith were placed on the DL while C Pierce Rankin and OF Nick Baligod were activated from the DL.

Hitting:

Jon Berti  -0/5, K

Peter Mooney – 1/4, R, RBI, K

Andy Burns – 1/5, E

Kevin Patterson – 1/4, BB

                Nick Baligod PR – 0/0, R

Gabe Jacobo – 0/4, BB, 2 K

Marcus Knecht – 2/5, 2 RBI, 3 K

Matt Newman – 1/2, 2 BB

Derrick Chung – 0/3, K

Jonathan Jones –1/3, R, 2B, BB

Pitching:

Aaron Sanchez – 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 K

Evan Crawford – 2/3 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 B, K

Ajay Meyer – 1 IP, 1 H, K

Tony Davis – 1 1/3 IP, 1 H, 2 K

Marco Grifantini – W, 3 IP, 2 H

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game: Aaron Sanchez.  Honourable mentions to Marco Grifantini and Marcus Knecht.

Lansing Lugnuts (3-4)

The "Crosstown Showdown" versus the Michigan State baseball team was postponed to May 1 due to weather.

------------------------------------------------------------

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter: @Jaysfromaway

BJfA New Game: Streak or Trend?

After eight games, we have enough data to make few conclusions, but we can play a fun round of Blue Jays from Away's brand new game: Streak or Trend?  We'll look at some numbers from around the Blue Jays and try to decipher whether they're a streak or a trend.  Today, we play the Hitter's Edition!

A streak is when a player gets unusually hot or cold and things just tend to go one way or another for a period of time before swinging the other way, balancing things out.

A trend is when things go in one direction or another and isn't coming back.  Jose Bautista's conversion into one of the game's elite power hitters in 2010 is a great example.  Looking back, you could see that his September/October 2009 numbers in which he hit 10 HRs in 109 ABs was a harbinger of things to come.

#1: Colby Rasmus.  In Colby's statistics, we have a constellation of contradictory numbers.  Colby has had 29 plate appearances, hit 3 HRs, walked 3 times and struck out 13 times.  This gives him an 10.3% walk rate and a 44.4% strikeout rate.

• The 10.3% walk rate is most likely the most sustainable of his numbers.  While he took fewer walks in 2011 and 2012, Colby's career high (in the majors) is 11.8% in his outstanding 2010 season.  
• The 44.4% strikeout is extraordinarily high and is most likely just a streak.  However, while this figure will normalize to a lower rate, I have a feeling that it won't get as low as it has been in his career.  His major league high strikeout rate was also in his career year of 2010 at 27.7%.  I'd say it settles in at close to 30% this season.
• Colby has had 42.9% of his fly balls leave the park this season.  That's WAY above league average which is about 10%.  His career average is around 11.7% so expect to see this number normalize.

#2: Jose Reyes.  Jose has 13 hits in 32 plate appearances.  He also has 4 walks and 4 strikeouts to go along with two doubles and a HR.  

• Jose's BABIP is .444, clearly an unsustainable figure over the course of the season, but he generally has slightly above average BABIPs (a career .313 rate).  He obviously won't hit .406 all season, but he did put up a .353 BABIP in 2011, and over his career, his batting average has settled in about 20 points below his BABIP, so if he is going to have a comparable figure in 2013, he may just be able to hit about .325-.330.
• Both his walk and strikeout rates of 11.1% are only slightly above his career averages (walk is 7.2%, K is 10.2%).  I think that they'll both drop a little bit, but are pretty projectable. 

#3: J.P. Arencibia.  JPA is hitting .313/.333/.719 with 3 HRs and 13 Ks in 32 PAs.  This gives him a 39.4% K rate to go with a 3% walk rate.  

• Well, I have a pretty good notion that JP's walk and strikeout ratios will normalize.  But when I say normalize, don't expect them to go very far.  His career walk rate is 6.1% and that's actually higher than the 4.8% percent he had last year.  Spring training is definitely not going to encourage any optimism as he only took two walks all spring.  His career K rate is 28.6%, so we should expect it to settle in around the 30% mark.
• On the bright side, JP's HR/FB rating is not as out of whack as Colby's.  JP's coming in at 25% right now (meaning 1/4 of his fly balls are leaving the park).  However, his career average is 15.8%, which is well above league average, and last season his HR/FB rate was 16.5%.  
• JP has always been streaky, meaning that while some of these numbers will certainly line up more with is career averages over time, I have a feeling that they're not too far off where they will end up.

So, Blue Jays fans?  What do you think?  Streak or Trend?  We'd love to see your thoughts in the comments below!

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter: @Jaysfromaway

April 10 Minor League Report

Buffalo Bisons (3-3)

Game Postponed due to rain.

New Hampshire Fisher Cats (4-3)

Ryan Schimpf had the big blow for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats as they get back into the victory column with a 6-3 victory over the Yankees farmhands from Trenton.  CF Kevin Pillar, 2B John Tolisano, and LF Brian Van Kirk all had great days with the bats with multiple hit days in piling the six runs onto the Thunder. Tolisano continues to struggle in the field at second base with his fifth error of the season that led to the Thunder’s third run of the game off Clint Everts in the eighth inning.

Starting pitcher Marcus Walden was pitching well until the fifth inning when he got himself into a jam after getting the leadoff man to ground out.  He then gave up a double, a single, and a walk and skipper Gary Allenson decided to go get the 24-year-old righty.  Matt Wright came on to relieve and gave up a single that scored one before shutting the door with an infield popup and a ground out.  Wright went on to pitch a big two more innings of shutout ball to keep the Fisher Cats on top until he handed it off to Everts and Beck.   Closer Chad Beck struck out three in a row after giving up a walk and a hit to close the game out.

Hitting:

Kevin Pillar – 3/5, 2 R, 2B

John Tolisano – 2/3, 2 R, 2B, BB, E

Ryan Schimpf – 1/3, R, HR, 3 RBI, BB, K

Brad Glenn – 1/3, RBI, BB

Ricardo Nanita – 0/4, 2 K

Brian Van Kirk – 3/4

                Kenny Wilson PR – R, SB

Kevin Ahrens – 1/4, K

Jack Murphy – 1/4, RBI

Amadeo Zazueta – 0/4, K

Pitching:

Marcus Walden – 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 3 K

Matt Wright – W, 2 2/3 IP, 1 H, 2K

Clint Everts – 1 IP, 2 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 0 K

Chad Beck – S, 1 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game: Matt Wright

Dunedin Blue Jays (4-2)

The Dunedin Blue Jays pulled out a squeaker with a run in the bottom of the eighth inning coming off the bat of Gabe Jacobo as his one out triple drove Peter Mooney home to give the D-Jays a 4-3 victory over the Tampa Yankees.  Starter Scott Copeland logged another quality start, throwing seven innings and giving up three runs on seven hits and a walk with four strikeouts.

It was another generally quiet game with the bats as the Jays only managed to get five hits, four of them off Tampa starter Bryan Mitchell, who MLB.com ranks as the 15^th best prospect in the Yankees system this year.  Aside from Jacobo’s two hits, both 3B Andy Burns and RF Matt Newman hit doubles while CF Jonathan Jones stroked the only other hit.

Hitting:

Jon Berti  - 0/4, K

Peter Mooney – 0/2, 2 BB

Andy Burns – 1/4, R, 2B, RBI

Gabe Jacobo – 2/4, 3B, 2 RBI

Kevin Patterson – 0/4, K

Marcus Knecht – 0/4, 2K

Matt Newman – 1/2, R, 2B, BB, K

Derrick Chung – 0/2

Jonathan Jones –1/3, RBI, K

Pitching:

Scott Copeland – 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K

Dustin Antolin – W, 1 IP, 1 K

Blake McFarland – S, 1IP, 1 BB, 2 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game: Gabe Jacobo (a very tough decision today, due to Copeland’s strong start)

Lansing Lugnuts (3-4)

The Lugnuts got blown out 10-1 Wednesday night in the final game of their series with the Bowling Green Hot Rods.  They’ll have until Friday to lick their wounds before continuing their season with their home opener against the South Bend Silver Hawks.  Tonight’s starter, Taylor Cole, coming off an outstanding start in his last outing, couldn't stay out of trouble after a 3-up, 3-down first inning.  The third inning proved to be his undoing: after Cole retired his first batter, Andrew Toles tripled and scored on a ground out.  Cole just couldn’t get that third out as he walked the next batter and gave up four consecutive singles that scored three more runs.  Three pitchers went the rest of the way and all in all, the damage was ten runs for the Hot Rods off sixteen hits and six walks. 

While all that was going on, the hitters only managed six hits of their own, and nothing beyond Gustavo Pierre’s solo home run in the top of the first inning.  Another troubling aspect of Wednesday night’s game was catcher Santiago Nessy committing his sixth passed ball in only his fifth game of the season.  This is definitely something that we’re going to keep an eye on since Nessy’s supposed to be quite strong defensively.  Balbino Fuenmayor’s mini-slump continues as he was hitless for the series against Bowling Green after a fantastic opening series against Lake County.  He has now struck out twelve times in twenty-six at bats while taking only three walks – another troubling trend, if it continues.

Hitting:

Dalton Pompey –  1/4, 2 K

Gustavo Pierre – 2/4, R, HR, RBI, 2 K

Christian Lopes – 1/4, K, E

Balbino Fuenmayor – 0/3, 2K

                Seth Conner PH – 0/1, K

Carlos Ramirez – 1/4, K

Santiago Nessy – 1/4, 2B, K, PB

Emilio Guererro – 0/3, K

Jorge Flores – 0/3

Ronald Melendez – 0/3, 2 K

Pitching:

Taylor Cole – L, 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 2 K, WP

Ben White – 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 2 BB, 2 K, 2 WP

Matt Johnson – 1 IP, 4 H, 3 R

Ian Kadish – 1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K

Blue Jays from Away Player of the Game:  GustavoPierre