The 2012 Blue Jays, part II: Offense

I want to take a look at the season that the Blue Jays had in 2012.  This edition of Blue Jays from Away will look at the  season that the team had with the bats and then look at something interesting that I came across while going over some stats.  

So.  As a team, the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays finished in 4th place in the AL East with a record of 73-89, 22 games behind the 1st place Yankees.

According to fWAR (Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistic), the Blue Jays ranked 11th (out of 14) with 15.8 wins produced by the offense.  This is well below the league leading Angels offense which contributed 37.4 fWAR and not so far above the league worst Indians whose batters contributed 11.9 fWAR.  On the Baseball Reference side (rWAR), the batters contributed 17.8 wins (including their fielding values) which places them 7th in the AL.  When we take the fielding out of the equation for rWAR, the Blue Jays fare much worse, with 13.9 oWAR (offensive Wins Above Replacement) good for 13th in the league.

So the question comes up.  Why was the Blue Jays' offense so bad last year?  Well, when we look at the huge number of injury problems that plagued the team, I think it's kind of an unfair question to ask.  The team's best best hitter whose presence would negate at least one of the real glaring deficiencies (low OBP) spent much of the season on the DL (Jose Bautista).  With other regulars spending extended time on the DL, the Jays had a couple of months fielding a lineup of not-yet-ready-for-prime-time players (aka minor leaguers) and guys who severely underperformed their career averages and expectations (Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus). 

We know the offense sucked last year.  But I'm going to try to develop a theory about exactly WHAT sucked, and how it could get better in 2013.  I must preface this discussion with a disclaimer:  I am not a mathematician.  The guys at Fangraphs and Beyond the Box Score are much more effective at this type of analysis, but I think I've noticed something that bears development perhaps by someone with more time and energy to track down more specific numbers than me. 

I've been looking at two things:  A) Some of the advanced stats and comparisons  between teams that sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference awesomely make available for general consumption, and B) the batted ball data that is also available. 

So, what did they do well (or at least well enough that it was considered above league average)?  Well, the Jays hit for power.  And they didn't hit into that many double plays (4th fewest in the AL with 109 - top was 156, bottom was 95).

What didn't they do well?  They Jays did not did not hit for average or get on base. They posted a .245 team batting average (10 points below the league average of .255), good for 11th in the AL, and they were the second worst team in the AL in OBP with a .309 percentage (league average = .320).  They slugged slightly below league average (.411) with a .407 SLG.  They struck out at above league average pace and walked slightly below it.  

One of things that intrigued me was that the Jays had quite a high Home Run percentage, going yard in 3.3% of all plate appearances (league average (LA)was 2.9%), as well as a high HR/FB percentage at 10% (league average = 8.7%).*  Interestingly, the Jays had a higher percentage of fly balls stay in the infield than any team other than Seattle (16% - LA=14%).  The Jays were close to league average in Ground ball - Fly ball ratio with 0.80 ground balls for every fly ball (LA = 0.82) but were well below the league average in Ground Outs to Air Outs (GO/AO) (which includes line-drives).  League average = 1.07; jays = 1.01.  So the Blue Jays didn't necessarily hit the ball on the ground less than other teams, but a GREATER PERCENTAGE OF THEIR OUTS came from air outs. We can also see that the Blue Jays' BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is well below the league average (Jays=.281; LA=.293).  It is a well known fact that balls hit in the air turn into outs more often than balls hit on the ground, but they go for extra base hits more often.

Can this chunk of statistical noise -- the Fly ball/Ground ball data -- tell us something about the Blue Jays' season?   The team with the highest ratio of GO/AO is the Minnesota Twins, the worst team in the AL (overall), but the #5 offense according to both rWAR and fWAR.  The team with the second highest ratio of GO/AO is the LA Angels (of Anaheim) who by either measure of WAR was the best offense in the league (by far).  The team with the third highest ratio of GO/AO was the New York Yankees.  The Yankees ranked second in both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference versions of batter WAR.  While there may be an indirect correlation between GO/AO ratios and actual run production, there are too many other factors at play to actually connect the dots this simply.  On the other hand, if we look at all of this information, there may very well be a pattern.

So, at least last year, teams that got more ground outs than air outs tended to produce more offense.  The 2012 Blue Jays had several factors that contributed to a sluggish offense:

• They hit for a low batting average.  
• They didn't walk much.  
• They struck out a lot. 
• They hit fly balls as opposed to line drives (which translate better to hits/runs) at a much higher rate than the league average, to go along with a low number of ground balls. 

What does all of this information mean?   Well, first of all, strike outs are pretty bad.  When you strike out a lot, you're vastly limiting the number of at bats that your team has in which to do damage.  By not getting on base a lot (low BA, low walks), the Jays are limiting the options for getting those runners around the bases to score.  Fly balls are a little complicated.  Fly balls produce home runs, which are good, but are much less likely to be productive when they do not leave the park.  By getting a larger proportion of their outs via the air rather the ground, the Jays' limited the possibilities of runners advancing or scoring on these outs. 

  

Additionally, ground balls turn into hits more often than fly balls which would, in turn, contribute to the batting average and on base percentage.   And when fewer men get on base, there are fewer runners scoring on the home runs that the team hits.  According to Baseball Reference, the Jays placed towards the bottom of the league in "Productive Outs" in which runners advanced due to an out occuring.  Could this be related to the ratio of GO/AO?

Unfortunately, these numbers bring up more questions than they provide answers.  Is this tendency to hit fly balls a result of the coaching?  Is it a result of the players themselves?  Is the tenuous correlation between GO/AO perecentage and offensive performance in 2012 just a random occurrence? 

Because of the home run power that the Jays have shown (despite being Bautista-less for half the year), it is my opinion that if the Jays could solve the OBP issue and have a couple of players who hit more ground balls than fly balls, their offense could be among the best in the league. 

It is with this in mind that I submit the following: If the Jays can't find a better option for 2013, Anthony Gose should get the opportunity to play left field and develop at the big-league level.  While I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that he take over for Colby Rasmus in CF in 2013, I think Gose can bring everything mentioned above to the table, and with more development in Spring Training and experience at the big league level, I think he's not far off from being exactly what they need.

Photo: Seth Wenig/Associated Press

I was able to watch Gose a little bit last year (on MLB.tv) and, while I wasn't able to see him really drive the ball, I did see several occasions where he put the ball on the ground and got on base.  When I took a look at his numbers, I was actually surprised by a few things. 

1. His OBP was 80 points higher than his BA.  He took 17 walks in 189 plate appearance - a 9% rate, which was OVER the MLB average of 8%.  This shows a real improvement in plate discipline, despite Gose's well known problems with the strikeout (he struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances last season, with a ML average of 19.8%).  Since Gose is still young (22) and has made progress in several areas of his game throughout his minor league career, I believe that it is reasonable to assume that with experience he will improve his strikeout rate. He may never strike out at league average rates, but he can certainly do better than he has so far.  
2. Despite writers saying that he's not ready for the majors, Gose's OBP was .303 - only 17 points below league average and only 6 points below the team average. When Gose returned to the Jays in September after a demotion, he put up much better numbers.  In fact, in September/October, when he compiled slightly more Plate Appearances than in July/August (97 PAs in Sept/Oct, 92 in July/Aug), he walked almost twice as much, struck out 50% less, hit 80 points higher, got on base about 90 points higher, and slugged about 150 points higher.  This can also potentially indicate that with more experience, Gose will not only be a useful player, but a potentially very good one.
3. Gose hits a lot of ground balls.  His GO/AO ratio was 2.17 (the Jays team average was 1.01), meaning that he was put out from balls on the ground more than twice as much as he was from balls in the air.  I don't anticipate his GO/AO ratio remaining so high.  As he gains ML experience and understands the pitchers better, he will likely begin to drive the ball more.  But even if this stat regresses slightly, it will still enable him to get on base (and wreak havoc -- see #4) more often.  Oh yeah, remember that the league average BABIP was .293?  Gose's was .340.  In 2012, when he put the ball in play, he got on base way more often than the average major leaguer.  Probably due to the fact that he hit the ball on the ground (a la Willie Mays Hayes).
4. Gose is not only scary fast, but he's a very good base stealer.  He stole 15 bases in 189 plate appearances.  But what advanced stats have shown is that getting caught stealing is much more detrimental to a team than a successful stolen base is beneficial.  Stats Gurus say that to add to a team's chances of winning, a base stealer has to be successful at least 70-75% of the time.  Gose's percentage was 83% successful (including 75% success stealing 3rd). 

So while Gose's overall skill set, particularly his ability to drive the ball for extra bases at the major league level (he only had a .319 SLG) may not be completely developed yet, he presents himself as someone who can contribute something that the Jays were lacking last year, with plenty of upside.

Gose is very interesting when compared to Colby Rasmus.** 

Photo: Frank Gunn/AP Photo The Canadian Press

While both players hit .223 last season, Rasmus is an extreme fly ball hitter.  Gose had a 2.17 GO/AO ratio, while Rasmus had a 0.72 ratio (which, incidentally was higher than his career average of 0.66). Rasmus had 11.2% of his fly balls leave the park while Gose only had 2.7% (league average: 8.7%).  Rasmus slugged .400, while Gose only slugged .319.  Rasmus got on base for at a .289 clip while Gose got on base just over 30% of the time (.303 OBP).  

Unlike Gose, Rasmus has 4 years of ML stats to look at and the 2010 season that everyone raves about as being the Rasmus that the Jays would love to see looks more and more like an outlier.  Rasmus has always shown power.  His high HR/FB% indicates that, but he strikes out at higher than league average rates (23.8% in 2012, 23.0% over his career, 19.8% LA in 2012).  However, Rasums's ability to get on base at league average or better rates appears entirely dependent on his ability to hit for average.  He has consistently posted below average BABIPs (.259 in 2012), and if he continues to post high strikeout rates, high Infield Fly Ball rates (IFFB), and low ground ball numbers, this will not change. 

Am I suggesting that the Jays replace Rasmus with Gose?  Absolutely not.  Rasmus's power is very valuable to have in your lineup and I'm sure the Blue Jays are convinced that he still can still find that 2010 form.  I'm suggesting that if the Jays don't find someone better to play left field in 2013, that Gose should be given a shot.  He has shown flashes of becoming exactly the type of hitter that they Jays just don't have right now, and could boost the overall efficiency of the offense of a team that can already hit the ball out of the park.

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* These are Baseball Reference figures.  Baseball Reference includes line drives in fly ball numbers while Fangraphs doesn't.  On Fangraphs, the Jays had 12.8% of fly balls leave the park while they calculate the league average to be 11.9%.

** Since Rasmus played so much more than Gose last year, I'll be using rate stats to compare them.