Until the end of 2012, New Hampshire was where the Blue Jays
were stashing several of their more advanced pitching prospects in preparation
for a jump to the big leagues. With the
Jays reaching an agreement with the Buffalo Bisons for 2013 and beyond, this
will no longer be the case. However, you
can bet that New Hampshire will be the place that the Jays premiere pitching
spends time in 2013 and 2014 on their way to the big leagues. On the pitching side, there were several top
prospects who plied their trades in New Hampshire this season.
Disappointments: Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins
Just getting a taste: Marcus Stroman, Sean Nolin
Surprise: Sam Dyson
On the fence: John Stilson
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| Photo: Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com |
The biggest disappointment on the Fisher Cats in 2012 would
have to be Deck McGuire (current MLB.com ranking* - #12). McGuire is a college righty who doesn't throw
particularly hard (peaking around 92mph).
He was thought to be one of the more advanced pitchers available when he
was selected in the first round of the 2010 draft (11th overall). While McGuire had an excellent 2011 that
produced a lot of optimism (3.02 ERA between Dunedin and New Hampshire - 2.75
K/BB ratio, .232 OPP BA), he struggled mightily in 2012. In 28 starts and 144 innings, he posted a
5.88 ERA, striking out only 15.1% of hitters, while walking 9.8%. Working mostly out of the bullpen in the Arizona
Fall League (a notorious hitter's league), he did a little better,
striking out 20.4% but walking 13.0% (in only 13 2/3 innings). The scariest thing about what has happened to
McGuire is that his strikeouts are way down, while his walks are up. Since he doesn't have overpowering stuff to
begin with, this is obviously a concern that he won't be able to get batters
out at higher levels in the minors. He
is still only 23 and I'll draw another comparison to a Blue Jays pitcher
without overpowering stuff who struggled in the minors - Ricky Romero. In AA in 2008, Romero posted worse K/9, BB/9,
and WHIP than McGuire did in 2012. I
think there's still hope for him, but he'll have to figure out a few things
quickly. McGuire will, in all
likelihood, return to AA in 2013, unless the Jays want to challenge him, in which case, he'll be in Buffalo.
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| Photo: Kevin Littlefield/NH Fisher Cats |
Chad Jenkins received a callup to the majors and pitched
respectably out of the pen for the Blue Jays (and made three starts) picking up
32 major league innings to go along with 114.1 minor league ones. Jenkins will be 25 in December, so this will
be a make-it-or-break-it time for him. I
won't say that he particularly earned his call-up to the majors, primarily
because he didn't pitch all that well in AA.
An argument was made that because Jenkins is primarily a ground ball
pitcher (getting 1.24 Ground outs to Air outs in AA in 2012), he would benefit
from better major league defense behind him and actually do better in the
majors. This didn't prove to be the
case, as his GO/AO ratio was 0.94 for the Jays.
Jenkins is another pitcher without overpowering stuff (supported by his
very low K% numbers - 11.2% in AA, 11.8% in MLB) and, like McGuire, his
strikeout numbers were way down from his pace in 2011. Unless the Jays suffer another rash of
injuries, I would expect Jenkins to pitch 2013 in Buffalo. If there's no bounce back in his strikeout
percentage, I would say he has hit his ceiling.
Unless his offspeed pitches develop (his fastball is unremakable,
averaging 90.9 mph for the Jays in 2012) to become swing-and-miss material, I
don't see Jenkins being able to sustain success as a starter, and if anything,
he could be just another bullpen guy.
| Photo: Battersbox.ca |
Marcus Stroman (current MLB.com ranking - #10) was selected
by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2012 draft (22 overall) and quickly
signed and began his professional career in Vancouver. After a couple of rough outings, he dominated
the Short Season A opponents and was promoted to AA. There he continued to pitch well before
testing positive for Methylhexaneamine on Aug. 28, 2012
and receiving a 50 game suspension. The
organization doesn't believe this to be a large problem due to its most likely
coming from a nutritional supplement that Stroman didn't know was banned. Stroman will probably begin 2013 (after he
returns from his suspension in May) in AA, but look for him to be promoted
quickly. The organization hasn't let on
whether they will have him start or relieve in 2013. Many scouts think that his size (only
5'9") and effort-laden delivery won't support him being a starter in the
long term. Comparisons have been made to
Tim Lincecum of the Giants who apparently broke down this year. Scouts and analysts think that Stroman can be
in the majors in 2013 coming out of the bullpen with a good fastball and an
excellent (and highly developed) slider.
Many were predicting that he'd be wearing a Blue Jays uniform in
September of 2012 until his positive drug test.
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| Photo: MiLB.com |
Sean Nolin (current MLB.com ranking -
#19) has been climbing the ladder and impressing at every level. He hasn't drawn as much attention as the
Lansing 3, but as Mark Hulet of Fangraphs says, he was one of the big surprises
of 2012. I'm not so sure why Hulet was
suprised; Nolin had an outstanding 2011 in Lansing and has simply built on
those successes this year mostly in Dunedin.
Nolin has better stuff than either McGuire or Jenkins and seemingly (by
looking at his walk and strikeout numbers) has learned to use his pitches
pretty well. With continued good
peripheral numbers in the minors, Nolin will probably at least find a major
league job in the bullpen as a lefty.
His upside, could be as high as a Ricky Romero type starter, with a
slightly better fastball (although his changeup is probably not as good). Nolin will most likely start 2012 in AA and
get at least two months of work there before moving up.
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| Photo: AP Photo |
Sam Dyson was a dark horse last season who
sprung up and had a great year in New Hampshire (even getting a cup of coffee
in the majors). He went to the Arizona
Fall League and was named an all-star (although he didn't pitch in the game due
to his innings limit being reached). He
began the season starting in Dunedin, but really came into his own as a
reliever in AA. His peripheral numbers,
however indicate that more seasoning is going to be required, due to his low
strikeout numbers (although walks are under control at this point). His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was
much higher than his ERA at New Hampshire (ERA - 2.38, FIP - 4.06), which
indicates that he may have troubles in the future. His scouting report says that he has a good
fastball (low-mid 90s) that sinks and gets a lot of ground balls, but his
breaking pitches are well behind the fastball in development.
John Stilson (current MLB.com ranking
- #16) fell in the 2011 draft due to a shoulder injury. The Jays snapped him up in the 3rd round and
he made his professional debut in 2012.
He was strong in Dunedin, and earned a promotion to AA where he showed signs
of struggling despite maintaining a good strikeout rate (5.04 ERA, 1.54 WHIP,
19.6% K, 10.2% BB). Scouts love his
stuff, but durability issues may lead to Stilson's future being as a reliever. Stilson won't turn 23 until July of 2013, so
he'll have plenty of time to work his way up from AA, but look for him to try
to develop his breaking stuff to go with his good heat, and probably work out
of the bullpen next season.
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* This is from MLB.com's current ranking of the player on
their top 20 list of Blue Jays prospects, compiled by Jonathan Mayo.
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