2013 Blue Jays Preview, part 3

27 - LHP Brett Cecil 

Age: 26
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $510,000

Another "bounce back" candidate for the Blue Jays, Brett Cecil is looking to hold on to a major league job, now two full years removed from his breakout 15-7 2010 season.  After much publicized weight battles and velocity loss, Cecil turned to the Next Generation Velocity Program that teammate Steve Delabar used so effectively to both strengthen his shoulder from injury and increase velocity. 

This spring, Cecil came to Spring Training having kept his weight off and with some of the velocity regained.   While some of his spring numbers are a little ugly (6.61 ERA), Cecil was being used in ways that were different than he most likely will be in the season, seeing more right-handed batters.  Still, while some numbers were poor, others show real improvement: he struck out 20 batters in 16 1/3 innings.  While his hits are a bit high, the walks are in a solid range and Baseball Reference rates the opposition quality as 9.1 (with 8 being AAA calibre and 10 being MLB calibre opposition).  In seeing Brett pitch a couple of times this spring, I have to say that I feel more comfortable about him coming into a tight situation against a left-handed hitter than I feel about bringing Jeremy Jeffress or Esmil Rogers into the game.  A lot of the hits that I saw against Cecil were of the "hit in the wrong place" variety.  With Cecil being out of options, I don't see him going anywhere when Lawrie returns from the DL.  However, a trade is a definite possibility for Cecil, particularly as a lefty who has experience as a starter.

28 - CF Colby Rasmus 

Age: 26
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $4.68 million

Rasmus has been the subject of a great deal of speculation over the past two seasons.  Since arriving in Toronto from St. Louis, he has had a rough go of it, showing flashes of his incredible talent amidst long slumps.  A good defensive centerfielder, Rasmus is another Blue Jay entering a make-or-break year.  While the Blue Jays don't really have a replacement in the wings for Adam Lind if he has another poor year, the Jays have an extremely talented 22 year old centerfield prospect stashed away in Buffalo just waiting to take over as the heir to Devon White's mantle as the greatest centerfielder to patrol the Blue Jays outfield.  So, Rasmus needs to fend off the youngster and put it all together this season.

Much has been made of Rasmus's outstanding 2010 season in which he hit .276/.361/.498 for the Cardinals.  The problem, like Lind, is that his big season remains an outlier in his career.  While he had a career high strikeout rate (27.7%), he also had a career high walk rate (11.8%).  To contrast that, his strikeout rate in 2012, while still high, was 23.8%, but his walk rate was below league average at 7.5%.  In addition, in 2012, he swung at more pitches outside the strike zone and fewer pitches inside the strike zone (according to Fangraphs).  This troubling development has contributed to his batting average falling from .276 at his peak (with an unsustainably high BABIP in 2010) to .223 last year.  When you're hitting .223 and taking walks at a rate that's below league average, you're not going to be giving your team as great a chance to win.  The positives are that when he gets hits, he's hitting the ball hard (as evidenced by his good ISO numbers as well as the number of HRs he hits).  I'm sure the Jays are hoping that the enigma of Colby Rasmus is solved in 2013.

29 - RHP Dustin McGowan 

Age: 31
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $1.5 million

I really don't think that I can shed any profound light on the plight of Dustin McGowan.  He has fought back from injuries so many times that I think he falls asleep counting his surgical scars instead of sheep.  The light at the end of the tunnel is that McGowan actually got into a spring training game (against close to MLB calibre opposition) and got all three of the batters he faced out.  He's on the 15 day DL to start the season, which means that, knock on wood, the Jays have about a month and a bit to figure out what to do with him.   He's also out of options, which means that if he does come back to the Jays, someone is going to have to go. 

32 - RHP Esmil Rogers 

Age: 27
Nationality: Domincan
2013 Contract: $509,000

I wrote about Rogers once before, when the Blue Jays acquired him in the off season.  Having seen him in Spring Training, he looked ok, and has shown pretty good stuff, striking out 17 batters in 12 2/3 innings.  He has some ugly numbers too, but apparently, there was one appearance in which he was tipping his pitches so that batters were all over him.  He had two particularly bad outings, one on March 5, and one on March 14 in which he gave up 7 runs in 2 1/3 innings combined.  Outside of that, he was much better over his last five appearances in the spring.  Let's hope that the latter Rogers comes north with the team.

33 - RHP Jeremy Jeffress 

Age:25
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $495,900

Jeffress was acquired for cash from the Kansas City Royals in the off-season after the Jays decided that his past troubles with marijuana are behind him.  While he has always had a power arm, he has struggled with his control, and this remains the story with Jeffress.  The Blue Jays think that they can help him unlock the key to finding control, or else they wouldn't have kept him on the roster to break camp with the major league team.  Of the three "on-the-bubble" pitchers (Cecil, Rogers, and Jeffress), the Jays have less invested in Jeremy and thus, while they would hate to see him catch on somewhere else and come back to hurt them, there's less at stake if the Jays simply try to sneak him through waivers and back down to the minors (although, he'd likely be claimed on waivers by another team). 

Jeffress has not looked good this spring.  He threw 13 innings, striking out 14 but walking 10 and giving up 18 hits against what Baseball Reference calls inferior opposition to either Cecil or Rogers.  If he struggles with his control, he will make the Jays decision of who to send out when Brett Lawrie returns from the DL that much easier.

38 - LHP Darren Oliver 

Age: 42
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $3 million

While his awesomeness on the mound is beyond question, Oliver got the most press this off-season for the "trade me to Texas or I'll retire" ultimatum.  I'm glad that's all behind us as we roll into the season.  Oliver didn't pitch much in Spring Training, but at 42 years old he knows what he needs to get ready better than anyone else. 

What's left to say about "Black Magic"?  Just that he's posted a better ERA every year since 2007, culminating with last year's 2.06 mark which also was accompanied by the veteran lefty's best WHIP of his career. While positive aging can't continue indefinitely (as is indicated by his declining fastball velocity), I believe that he returned to the Blue Jays for two reasons.  The first is that he'd like to collect the $3 million that he signed for, and that he wants to retire after winning a World Series.  I truly believe that if the Jays hadn't revamped their lineup for 2013, Oliver doesn't come back.

43 - RHP R.A. Dickey 

Age: 38
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $5 million

Dubbed the "most interesting man in baseball" by Toronto Star columnist Rosie DiManno, Dickey is certainly more erudite than any of the other Blue Jays in the clubhouse and would probably get along well with pitcher-turned-author-turned-radio/tv analyst Dirk Hayhurst.  With so much ink (digital and otherwise) covering Dickey's travails, I'll just say this: In the same way that Dickey has no idea what his knuckleball will do after he releases it, I have no idea how he'll fare this season.  Whether he'll be the "ace" in this rotation or not, I think that he'll be at least a solid arm on the mound, and someone who is fun to watch.*  I'm also generally not very interested in reading or hearing athlete interviews, but with Dickey, I'll tune in to hear what he has to say because chances are much higher that he'll stray beyond the typical Bull Durham-esque cliches.

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* I'll confess to having always been a big fan of watching knuckleballers and thoroughly enjoyed the documentary film aptly named "Knuckleball" featuring both Dickey and Tim Wakefield.

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Opening Week Pitching Situation

So, to prove that my writing up of the player profiles is not a completely futile activity, I had a little mental sojourn while working on Brett Cecil's profile that I think merits its own short blog.

Photo: Mike Cassese, Reuters

I was trying to prognosticate what would happen with the Jays' 8-man bullpen throughout this first week as Brett Lawrie recovers from his oblique injury.  The first thought was about what the Jays are going to do with Lawrie.  Does he come back right away?  Does he get farmed out for a rehab assignment?

If the Jays are serious about getting him back in the lineup right away, he'll have been getting into some minor league games this past week (but I haven't heard any reports of that).  Is he going to just go from BP down in Florida to live "real-deal" MLB game action?  My thoughts are that he'll probably stay in Florida, play in three or four games down in Dunedin on a rehab assignment and then return to the Jays mid-way through the second week of April at the earliest.

But what happens to the pitching as this all goes down?  There are three pitchers who are kind of "on-the-bubble" and out of options.  All three of Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Esmil Rogers are considered the long guys after the three back-end guys (Janssen, Santos, Delabar), Black Magic (Darren Oliver), and lefty-specialist Aaron Loup have all got jobs sewn up.

The question of who gets sent out, and in which manner, when Lawrie comes back will have to be decided within the first two weeks of the season.  Obviously their performances are going to have something to do with it, but with the depth that the Jays have in the starting rotation, and the late-inning pitchers already decided, when are THREE EXTRA bullpen guys going to get to pitch?

So, my feeling is that John Gibbons is going to be a little extra cautious with his starters to start the season.  I would not expect to see any of them pitch more than six innings in any one start at the beginning of the season unless they are really dominating.  This will be done for two reasons: the first is to protect their arms, and not tax them too much too early, and the second will be to allow the Jays to showcase all three of Jeffress, Cecil, and Rogers.

My hunch is that the Jays are going to try to trade one of them by the time that Lawrie returns to the team.  Which one?  Whomever they can get the most for.  Personally, I've seen the least positive results from Jeffress, who has the most upside.  The Jays need to get something for Rogers, because if they don't, it will be like they gave up their manager for nothing.*

Photo: espn.go.com

I think Cecil has the most value at this point.  He's got the most successful major league experience, he's a lefty, and he has experience starting.

So, what do you think?  Are these three guys going to be showcased as trade bait?  Which is the most likely to be traded?  Who would bring the most back for the team?

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* Don't think too hard about the logic of this last sentence.

2013 Blue Jays Preview, part 2

16 - IF Mark DeRosa

Age: 38
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $750,000

While brought in primarily as a "glue guy" -- a player who is known for his clubhouse presence rather than his on-field skills -- Mark DeRosa hasn't stuck around the major leagues since 1998 because he couldn't play.  He had a five year peak between 2005 and 2009 where he was at least average and even showed some pop in his bat (he had a career high of 23 HR between the Cardinals and the Indians in 2009).  He can play a number of positions, but he's not particularly good (or even league average) at any of them.

DeRosa had a great spring hitting .442 with 2 HRs (and looked good when I was there), but he had a great spring last year with the Nationals, so I wouldn't read much into it.  Perhaps he has the kind of swing and approach at the plate that takes advantage of the lower talent levels and pitchers working on things that are much more common in Spring Training.  To demonstrate how important spring numbers are, DeRosa had a .457/.587/.600 slash line in Grapefruite League play last year, and followed it up with a .188/.300/.247 line in the regular season (101 PAs).  So, let's hope that he gets 100 ABs or so this season and does a wee bit better.

19 - OF Jose Bautista 

Age: 32
Nationality: Dominican
2013 Contract: $14 million

By now, we all know Jose Bautista's story.  Bouncing around through many organizations until he was acquired by the Blue Jays for minor league catcher Robinson Diaz, a small mechanical adjustment by the Blue Jays staff and Jose has emerged into one of the premiere power hitters in the game.  All that we can really hope for this year from Bautista is to continue the awesomeness that he's been having over the past three years and to stay healthy.

As I write this, Jose blasted a line drive home run off the left field foul pole in Philadelphia in the Jays final exhibition game.  That type of swing, which I saw firsthand when I was in Florida, is what tells me that his wrist (surgically repaired in August) is healthy and raring to go.  I saw him absolutely destroy a ball (hitting it out into a strong wind) as well as hit a ball out that he had to reach for, something that few players would be able to do.  Jose is definitely healthy and I'm sure he's just raring to get to the games that count.

21 - RHP Sergio Santos

Age: 29
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $2.75 million

Santos was originally drafted by the Diamondbacks as an infielder and joined the Blue Jays organization via a trade in 2005.  He struggled as a hitter and eventually became a pitcher with the Chicago White Sox.  With the White Sox, he became the closer in his second year in the majors (2011), putting together a pretty awesome season, striking out over 13 batters per 9 innings and saving 30 games (not that saves mean anything).

For the Blue Jays, Santos was their closer of the future but only threw five innings in 2012 before getting shut down for the rest of the year due to injury and surgery.  He appears to be healthy now and has been looking good in Spring Training.  Whether he closes or sets up, he'll be one of the two main back of the bullpen guys this season and the Jays will be relying on him.

22 - C Henry Blanco 

Age: 41
Nationality: Venezuelan
2013 Contract: $750,000

Blanco, like DeRosa, is a veteran who has been brought in for his character as well as his experience.  Amazingly, in his long career, he has never had more than 357 plate appearances in a single season, parlaying his defensive abilities into a long major league career as a backup.

While well respected as a very good defensive catcher, "Hank White" (as he's sometimes called) hasn't been able to do much with the bat (compiling a career OPS of .658), despite looking alright in Spring Training, and winning the backup catcher's position over Josh Thole hitting only .258/.294/.387 (for a slightly above career OPS of .681).  Rumour has it that Blanco was a favourite catcher for knuckleballer R.A. Dickey in 2010 for the Mets and was brought in by the Blue Jays to catch him.

23 - RHP Brandon Morrow 

Age: 28
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $8 million

Morrow was acquired by the Blue Jays in a trade of Brandons with the Seattle Mariners.  After being moved back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen in Seattle, the Mariners sent him to Toronto for reliever Brandon League.  League, since traded to and signing a huge contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, has become a very good reliever.  Morrow, on the other hand, is on the cusp of emerging as one of the league's best starting pitchers. 

Last season, Morrow made 21 starts (missing several weeks with an oblique injury) and showed the ability to much more efficient than he has in the past.  While his K% dropped (although still remaining over 21%, which is good), he got far more ground balls in 2012 (up over 5% from 2011) and cut down his fastball and slider usage, opting for more changeups and pitches that Pitchf/x classified as either cutters or splitters.  Obviously, Morrow appears to be maturing, being less of a two-pitch pitcher (fastball/slider) and having a much more well-rounded repertoire.

24 - LHP Ricky Romero 

Age: 28
Nationality: American
2013 Contract:  $7.5 million

Ricky Romero has had more ink spilled about him than any other Blue Jay this spring.  After three increasingly good seasons, Romero took a huge step backwards last year putting up one of the worst seasons by a starting pitcher in the major leagues (he had the worst ERA of all qualified pitchers in the majors).  His control was the biggest issue, walking 105 batters, leading the American League (and tied for the Major League lead) in that category and the mechanical adjustments that pitching coach Pete Walker has been making with him haven't paid off yet. 

So, Ricky stays in Dunedin to work his issues out.  Hopefully, it won't take too long and Ricky will be back to the pitcher he was even in 2010 and 2011.  That would probably make him one of the best 5th starters in baseball.

26 1B/DH AdamLind 

Age: 29
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $5 million

Another player who has endured his struggles, Adam Lind is basically playing to hold on to a major league job this season.  After returning from a stint in AAA last season, Lind was much better, but still struggles against left handed pitching.   Lind's final stats from last year were actually in the vicinity of league average.  Unfortunately, two things work against him.  As a DH/1B, league average isn't really good enough.  To really be productive at a non-premium defensive position, Lind needs to hit much better.  The second is the aforementioned problem with left-handed pitching. 

Lind's problems have been traced by bloggers to his less selective approach at the plate (as compared to his outstanding 2009 season) as well as his poor overall conditioning.  Blue Jays broadcasters have been talking up his addition of Yoga to his regime, which, hopefully will help shore up his core strength and help him avoid the pesky back injuries that have plagued him. 

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Note: All names now link to the player's Baseball Reference page!

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2013 Blue Jays Preview, part 1

Without further ado, I bring you my preview of the 2013 Blue Jays.  I've organized them by uniform number and divided them up into four groups of seven players, which will cover all 28 Blue Jays (the 25-man roster, plus 2 players on the 15-day DL and Ricky Romero) in neat, little, equal packages.  

1 – Super Utility-Man Emilio Bonifacio

Age (on Opening Day): 27
Nationality: Dominican
2013 Contract: $2.6 million

Acquired in the massive trade with Miami that brought so many other star players (Buehrle, Johnson, Reyes), Bonifacio’s versatility is his greatest weapon.  He can play all of the outfield positions and three of the infield positions and the Blue Jays think that he’s going to get a lot of playing time at second base this season but he will also be available to spell regulars in left field, center field, and third base.  Bonifacio’s next most important asset is his speed.  In parts of six seasons in the majors, “Boneface,” as he is sometimes called, has stolen 110 bases while being caught 28 times. 

I believe that it was his 2011 season, in which he earned 641 plate appearances and put up a .296/.360/.393 slash line while stealing 40 bases, that caught GM Alex Anthopoulos’s attention.  If he can return to this level of productivity (which he has never come close to before or since), Bonifacio can become one of the most exciting players in baseball.  I think the Jays would be happy with a slight improvement on his 2012 line of (.258/.330/.316) showing a little more power to the gaps while maintaining a stolen base percentage above 80%.  Much of his value comes from his ability to talk walks in the 9% range as is evidenced by his consistent ability to put up OBPs about 60-70 points higher than his batting average.  Again, for him to be really valuable, he needs to get on base a lot and set the table for  Jose Reyes hitting behind him when the batting order turns over.

3 – IF Maicer Izturis

Age: 32
Nationality: Venezuelan
2013 Contract: $3 million

Signed as a free agent this offseason before the big Miami trade, Izturis (half-brother to former Blue Jay Cesar Izturis) was expected to finally get a chance to play every day and be the second baseman after Kelly Johnson left.  Having shown decent batting skills with the Los Angeles Angels, he is known as an above average defensive player at three infield positions. 

When he plays, he’ll be batting either 8^th or 9^th, and will be able to get on base at a decent clip (career low OBP since 2006 was last season at .320) and he can drive the ball to the gaps when he’s in the zone (he has a 162 game average of 30 doubles over his career).  He also has respectable speed and knows how to steal bases efficiently, as evidenced by his four seasons with double digit stolen bases culminating in last season’s 17 successful swipes in 19 attempts.  Anyone expecting greatness from Izturis will be disappointed, but he is a useful and solid baseball player who can be productive when he plays.

7 – SS Jose Reyes

Age: 29
Nationality: Domincan
2013 Contract: $10 million ($3 million is paid by the Marlins)

Reyes is one of baseball’s most enthusiastic and exciting players who does so many things well.  As a shortstop, he may be slight downgrade from Yunel Escobar (who went to Miami in the trade) as the available fielding metrics basically show that Reyes is around a league average defensive shortstop. 

It’s on the other side of the ball that Reyes provides a real and large upgrade over Escobar.  Since his first full season in 2005, Reyes has led the National League in triples four times, in stolen bases three times, in hits once and in batting average once.  His career OBP is .342 and hits over 30 doubles per season and has the capability to hit occasional home runs (averaging 12 over a 162 game season).  Throwing out his injury riddled 2009 season, Reyes has accumulated over 4 fWAR* every year since 2006 except for his “down” year of 2010 (where he still managed a slightly-above-league-average wRC+ of 102).  His rWAR is a little bit less generous, having his 2012 season come in a 2.94 rWAR but overall, he is just as well rated in Baseball Reference’s calculation as he is in Fangraphs’. Seeing him play in Spring Training and the WBC, I can’t wait to watch this guy in the Jays’ lineup day in and day out.

9 – C J.P. Arencibia

Age: 27 (I just noticed that J.P. has the same birthday as I do.)
Nationality: American
2013 Contract: $2.059 million

J.P. Arencibia was given the ultimate vote of confidence in the off season by Blue Jays management.  The prospect most likely to usurp his status as the starting catcher was traded away.  A first round draft pick for the Jays in 2007, Arencibia gets a lot of flack for being a poor defensive catcher and having low OBPs.  Baseball people do say that catchers mature offensively later than other position players, because they spend so much time early in their careers working on the defensive game.

Personally, I’m comfortable with Arencibia for now.  He’s a very likeable guy and many people have commented that his defense has improved to the point that he’s now a league average receiver (Baseball Reference metrics support this).  To go along with that, he has produced offensively at slightly below league average levels (according to both OPS+ and wRC+), and I have a feeling that, with a new sense of job security and comfort at the major league level, he is set to have somewhat of a breakout year in 2013.  I don’t think he’ll be an all-star, but I think he can subtly improve both his walk rate (which was a terrible 4.8% last year) and his batting average to bring up his production into the league average levels.

10 – 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion

Age: 30
Nationality: Dominican
2013 Contract: $8 million

Edwin enjoyed a Bautista-esque breakout year in 2012, hitting 42 HRS and putting up a monstrous .941 OPS, culminating in an 11th place finish in AL MVP voting.  Where did this power come from?  Well, in Edwin's case, scouts always knew he had a ton of power.  What he needed to do was become more selective and stay healthy for a full year.  In 2012, he had a career high 13% BB rate, meaning that he was much more selective about his pitches, forcing pitchers to throw him a pitch that he could destroy.  If nothing else, this is the single most similar development to Bautista.  Not that he ever had really bad walk rates, but 2012 was a huge step forward in this regard.

For his contributions, EE  was rewarded with a 3-year, $27 million contract and, with a healthy Jose Bautista, projects to be part of the slugging core of the Blue Jays lineup in this retooled roster.

11 – OF Rajai Davis

Age: 32
Nationality: American (Rajai comes from near Newtown, CT, where the tragic school massacre recently took place.) 
2013 Contract: $2.5 million

A 38th round pick of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Davis's great speed and his ability to hit lefties is what keeps him in the game.  He's not a particularly good fielder (his speed helps him make up for some poor initial reads of fly balls), and except for an outlying 2009 season, he has never been even an average hitter.  But coming off the bench, Davis is a game-changer on the bases.  He has stolen more than 20 bases every season since 2007 (his first full season), and in his two seasons with Toronto, has stolen 80. 

Where Davis can become intriguingly useful is as a DH against left-handed pitchers.  Career, he has a 121 OPS+ when facing LHP and his OPS is over 100 points higher against lefties than against righties.  While Adam Lind has looked pretty good this spring, if he continues to have trouble hitting lefties this season, Davis provides a right-handed bat to share the load and keep the production up. 

13 – 3B Brett Lawrie

Age: 23
Nationality: Canadian (Langley, BC)
2013 Contract: around MLB minimum ($490,000)

Lawrie is a tempest in a teapot who is learning to control his over-aggressive, all-out attitude towards playing baseball.  He's going to start the season on the DL after straining a core muscle in a WBC tuneup game, but shouldn't miss significant time in the season.  He's showing maturity, shutting himself down immediately, rather than trying to play through it, apparently learning his lessons from last year where he missed time due to a rib injury.

One of the big questions that face the Blue Jays this year is how will Lawrie develop and mature as a baseball player in 2013.  He's a guy with only a season and a bit of MLB playing time and has shown flashes of greatness, and long stretches of goodness.  His 2012 season, in which he hit .273/.324/.405 with 11 HRs, 26 2Bs and 3 3Bs, was thoroughly average by just about any measure -- his 97 OPS+ and 100 wRC+ demonstrate this.  His outstanding fielding at 3B added greatly to his value, which was either 4.35 rWAR (Baseball Reference) or 2.5 fWAR (Fangraphs).  The great thing is that Lawrie contributed good, or very good value in his first full season while keeping his head above water offensively.  He's still only 23 and if he develops like many other players do, he should start improving at the plate.  Many scouts and pundits, including ESPN's Keith Law, think that this is Lawrie's year to break out and take his playing to a higher level.  Let's hope they're right.

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* for more on advanced metrics, visit Fangraphs

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Jays Head (Mostly)* North

Welcome to the last weekend of the year without real baseball.  Feels good, doesn't it?  Real baseball with a team that has absolutely realistic expectations to contend is about to arrive in Toronto.  Just a long, Christian-holiday-ish weekend to go.**

What shall we do this weekend (aside from watching/listening to the 2 "fake fake" games against the Phillies)?  We can watch the season premiere of Game of Thrones.  And, we can rosterbate over the lineup and pitching staff that Alex Anthopoulos has put together for the 2013 season.

I'll be putting together some mini-profiles of the Jays and try to dig for info that you might not have read yet, although I make no promises since most of the other bloggers are pretty darn thorough covering this team, but since I'm still unemployed (and a giant baseball nerd), I'll cram it into a weekend rather than 30-something days.

Today, however, I'm going to go over some of the Grapefruit League stats and call your attention (and mine) to some interesting things that they reveal.  Since these stats don't count for anything really, this may just be an exercise in futility, but since I don't have anything else to do, futility is better than nothing.***

Fun Fact #1:  Mark DeRosa had the 3rd highest OPS on the Jays (1.207).

1st and 2nd are J.P. Arencibia (1.356) and Jose Reyes (1.221), both of whom are easy to see at the top of this list.  Reyes was on fire before and after the WBC, while Arencibia was a monster after returning.  But DeRosa?

In fact, ranks 3-5 on the Blue Jays OPS leaderboard are DeRosa, Jim Negrych, and Lars Anderson.  While Anderson only had 14 at bats before being sent down to the minors, Negrych showed almost as much pop in his bat as DeRosa (again... Spring Training warning).

While this doesn't mean that DeRosa is going to rake, especially in the first week where he'll probably get more playing time with Brett Lawrie on the DL, it definitely makes me feel more comfortable than if he had shown nothing with the bat and all I was hearing from the Jays' management was that he was "good in the clubhouse."

Fun Fact #2: Josh Johnson doesn't need to be this good to be flat out awesome. 

How good was he in Spring Training?  In 16 innings, he gave up 2 earned runs on 8 hits and 1 walk.  In fact, if you erase the two home runs that he gave up this spring, he gave up 0 runs.  And he struck out 21 batters.

Obviously that's not going to happen in the regular season.  But holy bat-holes,^ Batman.  I'll take a 21/1 K/BB ratio any day.  In fact, I'll take a quarter of it.  If Johnson has even a 3/1 or 4/1 K/BB ratio in the regular season, he's going to have a phenomenal year.

Fun Fact #3: The Blue Jays went 14-17 in Grapefruit League action.

But, who cares?  The Jays went 24-7 last year and where did THAT get them?  The fact is that the Jays had the third most players on their team go to the WBC and while some of these guys were minor leaguers like Adam Loewen and Trystan Magnuson (who both played for Canada), the majority were key players like Brett Lawrie (ok, he didn't play, but he suffered an injury and wasn't available to either Team Canada or the Blue Jays), R.A. Dickey, J.P. Arencibia (Team USA), Jose Reyes, and Edwin Encarnacion (Team Dominican Republic).

With so many players away, watching the spring training games during the WBC (especially away games) was like watching minor league games.  The lack of "success" as a team in Spring Training for the Jays was pretty meaningless.  It also gave guys like Anthony Gose more playing time than they would have otherwise had.

Fun Fact #4: Justin Germano threw the most innings without allowing a walk (13).

While MLB.com stats show Aaron Loup as being a close second with 10 walk-less innings, I distinctly remember hearing him walk someone in one of the audio broadcasts with Mike Wilner and Dirk Hayhurst.

So who is this legendary pinpoint-control-artist named Justin Germano?  He's going to be a key member of the Buffalo Bisons starting rotation.  He's a 30 year old journeyman who has over 300 major league innings, including almost 65 last year split between the Cubs and the Red Sox.  He's always shown good control.  In 2011, he pitched 49 innings in Columbus (the Indians AAA club), walking only 4 batters.  His problem in the majors has been hits.  He doesn't throw hard, but has a really nice breaking ball.  Kryptonite to minor leaguers, but hardly something that fools seasoned major league hitters.

Fun Fact #5: Trivia time.

Question: Jose Bautista hit 5 HRs to lead the Jays in Grapefruit League HRs.  J.P. Arencibia was tied in for second with 4.  Who was he tied with?

Answer: 2013 International League All-Star# Andy LaRoche.  LaRoche is a 29 year old utility guy who has shown a LOT of pop early in his minor league career, culminating with 30 HRs in 2005 between A+ and AA.  He only hit more than 12 HRs in a year twice after that (in 2006 and 2007 - spending time in both years in Las Vegas).  In fact, LaRoche has only 22 HRs to show for 1180 major league at bats.

Basically, I'm saying "don't get your hopes up."

So, there's some fun facts to get you through tonight.  Profiles begin tomorrow!  Happy Easter, and Chag Sameach!

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* By "(mostly)," I'm referring to the fact that the Jays fly to Philadelphia for their two exhibition games against the Phillies this weekend, not the fact that some Jays are staying in Florida.  I'll definitely be wearing my Dunedin Blue Jays cap to my first game of the year to support guys like Ricky Romero staying behind.  And because it's way cool.

** Or, if you're like me and Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590), you just have to survive the rest of Passover.

*** That turn of phrase has really started to grow on me.  I shall adopt it as my motto!

^ No, I'm not being rude.  Lots of strike outs =  holes in the batters' bats.  Holy bat-holes.  Get your minds out of the gutter.

# I'm predicting that he'll be one.

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Don't forget to follow us on Twitter: @Jaysfromaway

2013 Blue Jays Opening Day Roster

So it appears that the Jays have decided on their Opening Roster for this season.  It's pretty much what everyone thought it would be with a couple of exceptions.  I'll do a more serious in-some-kind-of-depth look at the players in follow up blog entries (I've got to fill up this space somehow!), but here's a quick list (in alphabetical order by position).

Starting Pitchers

Mark Buehrle
R.A. Dickey
J.A. Happ
Josh Johnson
Brandon Morrow

Bullpen

Brett Cecil
Steve Delabar
Casey Janssen
Jeremy Jeffress
Aaron Loup
Darren Oliver
Esmil Rogers
Sergio Santos

Catchers

J.P. Arencibia
Henry Blanco

Infielders

Emilio Bonifacio
Mark DeRosa
Edwin Encarnacion
Maicer Izturis
Adam Lind
Jose Reyes

Outfielders

Jose Bautista
Melky Cabrera
Rajai Davis
Colby Rasmus

The only real surprises are J.A. Happ instead of Ricky Romero, and the fact that Brett Lawrie was placed on the 15-day DL (retroactive to March 22) to start the year.  The Jays have announced that they'll keep 8 pitchers in the bullpen until Lawrie can return.

Some nice surprises

I'm still trying to maintain a fairly regular blogging schedule even though I'm back in Toronto, but I don't just want to blog when there's stuff that is either a) obvious, or b) covered to death by all the other Jays bloggers.

For example: I'm not writing much about the J.A. Happ/Ricky Romero battle for the 5th starting spot because it's been covered by literally the entire planet.  I'm also not just going to give blow-by-blow reports on the Jays boxscores because, well, it's pretty boring, and you can just go to a range of websites to look at the boxscore and game reports yourself.

Today, though, there were a couple of nice surprises that I'll cover briefly.

First, from other reports, Ricky didn't pitch all that badly.  Not really a surprise, but I thought it merited a mention.

Second, a couple of really interesting fellas made an appearance in the box score today.  First was Dustin McGowan.  From other sources, McGowan threw a clean inning and hit 93 on the radar gun, so all indications are that he's back on the fast track to recovery and could possibly start the season on a rehab assignment before the team has to make a decision on what to do with him.  McGowan is out of options, so if he's going to get a regular minor league assignment he'd have to clear waivers first, and I"m sure if McGowan is healthy and throwing the way he can, he wouldn't get through without being claimed.

The other interesting name to show up in the box score was Marcus Stroman's.  Stroman, as many of you may remember, was ranked #3 on my top 20 prospect list.  He threw 2 hitless innings, giving up one walk and striking out two batters.  I saw Stroman throw Live BP while I was in Florida and the kid has major league quality stuff.  The plan is to stretch him out as a starter, but he has a lot of time to be able to do that.  He still has about 42 or 43 games remaining on his suspension, so there's not a big problem in him throwing only 2 innings this late in spring training.  He's not shooting for an April start to his season -- he's got until about the middle of May before he needs to be ready.  And knowing how the Blue Jays like to take it easy on their minor leaguers arms, having him throwing 2 innings in a big league spring game is probably just starting to get him spooled up to start when his suspension is up.

Other highlights from the game today included another HR from Adam Lind and Rajai Davis.  Both guys have been hitting well in the spring, and here's hoping that Lind especially carries this success over when the regular season starts next week.

Alrighty, that's my brief addition to the Blue Jays Blogosphere for today!  Happy Passover!

Ode to the Fallen, pt. 2

Four more Blue Jays were optioned to AAA today and a the names on today's list are a little more recognizable.  Getting their tickets to Buffalo were C Josh Thole, OF Anthony Gose, P Dave Bush, and P Brad Lincoln.  We'll probably see three of these four players with the big league squad sometime this year -- Thole, Gose, and Lincoln are all on the 40-man roster while Bush will have to really impress in AAA (or the major league squad will have to suffer a huge number of injuries) for him to get a call up.

Dave Bush signed his first pro contract after being drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2002 and made his first major league appearance after only two seasons in the minors.  In 2004 and 2005, he put up some very solid numbers for the Jays before being traded to Milwaukee as part of the December 2005 deal to bring the Jays Lyle Overbay.  Bush spent 2006-2008 as a solid contributor to the Brewers rotation but hit a bump in 2009 and hasn't really been able to recover.  He spent all of 2012 in AAA with the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs - the Philadelphia Phillies' top farm team.  He was signed by the Jays to a minor league contract with the understanding that he'd be rotation depth for the team.  I'd say that he's probably around 7 or 8 on the starting pitching depth chart, and he'll be starting in Buffalo after a Spring Training in which he didn't really blow anyone away.

Brad Lincoln is a 27 year old pitcher that the Blue Jays acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates for Travis Snider on June 30th, 2012.  His spring has also been uninspiring, but mainly due to an arm injury and the flip-flopping that the Jays were doing over whether or not to try to stretch him out to be a starter in Buffalo.  Eventually, the Jays management decided that he would be best served as a reliever and will report to AAA when healthy enough.

Josh Thole was one of the "extras" that came back to Toronto in the deal that brought R.A. Dickey to town. Thole, still a young catcher (26) has been competing with the 41-year-old veteran Henry Blanco for the right to back up J.P. Arencibia.  To my eyes, Blanco has had a much better spring (although I didn't see much of Thole in Spring Training).  Management's biggest concern was whether Blanco could still hit major league pitching, and he has certainly done that in the spring (which says nothing definitive, of course) while Thole hasn't done much with the bat, hitting only .171/.237/.286 in 35 spring at bats.  The Jays rewarded Thole with a major league contract that will pay him $1.25 million a year for 2013 and 2014 (with an option for 2015) that should keep him earning big league dollars while being stashed in Buffalo in case of injury to either of the other catchers.

Anthony Gose has tantalized Blue Jays fans this spring.  The 22-year-old center fielder has shown a lot of improvement in his approach at the plate this spring in addition to flashing his unbelievable defensive skills.  Having seen what he can do in person (I was at the game against the Yankees where he made a mind-blowing catch), I'm a firm believer that he can be a game changing player, but still needs some more seasoning in AAA.  I'm interested to see how he does this season in Buffalo, particularly without the ego-stroking Vegas effects on his batting stats, but I have a feeling that some of the adjustments he's made and the experience he's gained will help him produce at the plate.  Gose has hit .267/.404/.400 so far this spring and has really impressed by taking 11 walks to go along with his 16 strikeouts.  His successful spring has made some of the media start to talk about how long it will be until Gose usurps Colby Rasmus in center field for the Jays.

Ode to the Fallen, pt. 1

From Mike Wilner:

Mike Wilner ‏@Wilnerness5904h

#Bluejays ship seven players to minor-league camp: McCoy, Velez, Schimpf, Negrych, Vargas, Ortiz and LJimenez. Camp down to 43. #Jays

None of these players are on the Jays' 40-man roster, which means that one of two things have to happen for us to see one of these guys on the Blue Jays at any point this season. 1: The player plays out of his mind in the minors. 2: A whole hell of a lot goes wrong with injuries and performances at the major league level.

So while these guys will be mostly footnotes for the Blue Jays 2013 season, I'd just like to give these guys their due.  They've been real troopers throughout a long Spring Training, particularly in this World Baseball Classic year where many Jays were away.  Some of these guys may not even remain in the Jays' system throughout the rest of Spring Training.  It is well known that Alex Anthopoulos has a verbal agreement with his minor league free agents that he won't stand in their way if the player wants a release so he can catch on with another team.

Mike McCoy has been a journeyman in the Blue Jays organization since 2010, being extremely versatile in the field, playing just about everywhere except for pitcher and catcher (although, he did pitch an inning in 2011).  McCoy is the prototypical all-glove/no-bat type of player.  He hasn't ever cracked .200 in the major leagues and really is not a good hitter at the major league level.  He has had some pretty good years in the PCL in AAA, but they were either at Colorado Springs (the Rockies' AAA club) or Las Vegas, and both locations are well known for contributing to the death of pitchers.  To my eyes, McCoy didn't look very good this spring and while I'm sure he's a great guy and teammate, he has done nothing to show that he can contribute to a major league roster.

Eugenio Velez is an almost-31-year-old minor league veteran with about 600 major league at bats under his belt.  He's listed as an infielder, but the Jays also had him in the outfield in Spring Training.  While he didn't look all that good defensively, I liked what I saw from Velez's bat and legs.  He can fly and can get hits (although without much power).  He seems to be able to get on base at a very good rate (upwards of .340) in the minors and will be a useful player in Buffalo who could come up to the majors in an emergency and give the team some decent at bats.

Ryan Schimpf looked completely overmatched in the majors, and I'm pretty sure that he got the major league invite both as a reward for a strong season in A and AA last year and also because they needed the bodies.  Now, he was only getting "garbage-time" (as they call it in basketball) at the end of games and was only getting, at most, one at bat per game.  Schimpf has kind of slid down the defensive spectrum and was, at one time, an infielder, but is now patrolling left field mostly.  I have a feeling he'll be back in New Hampshire this year, mostly because the Buffalo squad has a number of much more experienced and advanced outfielders in his way (Anthony Gose, Ricardo Nanita, Moises Sierra).

Jim Negrych is one of the non-roster players who looked really good this spring.  Playing second base (sometimes starting), he looked very comfortable at the plate, and it showed in his .429/.515/.750 slash line. He hit 2 home runs and looked really good playing the infield.  Negrych is 28 and has hovered around the high minors over the past several years.  I'm sure the Jays have him pencilled in as their starting second baseman for the Buffalo Bisons as he's shown himself to be a very solid hitter in the minors (particularly with good OBPs).  If anyone comes up from the non-roster list of players to crack the Jays squad, my gut feeling is that it will be Negrych who was very impressive in Spring Training.

Claudio Vargas is a veteran major leaguer trying to keep playing professional ball.  He had an okay spring (4.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) but had poor walk and strikeout numbers (5BB, 6K in 10 2/3 innings).  He pitched in the majors between 2003 and 2010 and is looking to make a comeback, but seeing what I saw, I'd have him well down on the minor league depth chart.

Ramon Ortiz is another veteran major leaguer looking for another chance.  at the age of 39, he didn't have a bad spring either, with a 3.27 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5K and 6 BB in 11 innings for the Jays.  He threw well in the game I saw him in, and perhaps that's giving me a slightly more positive outlook for him.  Ortiz last pitched in the majors in 2011 with the Chicago Cubs and didn't pitch badly at all.  I'd say that Ortiz is only slightly ahead of Vargas on the depth chart.

Luis Jimenez is a big immobile first baseman that will probably DH it Buffalo with Lars Anderson (already sent down) playing the field more.  Jimenez is almost 31 and got a cup of coffee in the majors with 17 at bats in Seattle last season and didn't show much.  He's shown very good hitting ability and decent power in the minors but is probably the epitome of a 4-A player who can dominate in AAA but can't put it all together in the majors, although he hasn't had much of a chance to.  He's behind Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, and Lars Anderson (as well as Mark DeRosa and Andy LaRoche) on the depth chart at 1B.

The Jays are now down to 43 men on their roster for Spring Training, so more cuts are going to be coming.  If you make it down to Buffalo this year, you'll most likely see these guys play, but the likelihood of their playing in Toronto is very low.

Romero, O Romero, Wherefore Art Thou?

So this post won't be nearly as extensive as my most recent epic tome on the subject of the assessment of prospects.

I'm going to throw my hat into the ring of Ricky Romero speculation today.

Let's review what has happened with Ricky over his career:

1. Ricky overcomes struggles in the minors to make the major league squad in 2009, posting a 2.8 fWAR season .

2. Ricky does (statistically) better and better over the following two seasons, with improvements in almost every category each year.

3. In 2012, Ricky is named Opening Day starter and anointed the staff "ace," and goes out and has a horrible year -- mainly because he can't throw strikes.

4. Ricky comes into 2013 Spring Training as the 5th starter due to the newly acquired studs.

5. Ricky doesn't show much improvement in Spring Training despite trying to throw more sinkers at first.

6. The Blue Jays announce that he's going to be working on a mechanical adjustment in his next start.

I'm going to peer into my crystal ball and say that there's a VERY good chance that Ricky Romero will start 2013 in Buffalo.

There are a whole lot of factors that have gone into this particular instance of crystal ball peerage.  The first is that Ricky hasn't been better, or shown any indications that he WILL be better, in Spring Training this year.  The second is that J.A. Happ has consistently outpitched Romero.  While the Jays have assured the media that Ricky would be #5 and Happ would start in AAA (as the #6 starter), John Gibbons has gone on the record to say that they were going to take the best team north to Toronto.  The team that gives them the best chance to win (at this point) is one that includes J.A. Happ over Ricky Romero.

The third factor is the public discontentment that Happ has expressed about going back to the minors as a guy who has a track record as a completely useful, decent enough ML calibre #5 starter.  While the large contract that the Jays signed Happ to in the off-season is indicative of a reward to compensate him for possibly spending time in Buffalo (the Jays signed a similar deal with Josh Thole), no one wants to be in the minors instead of the majors.  While the Jays probably wouldn't care about what Happ says, in this case, he is the player that is performing better and the Jays will have to deal with him at some point if they are going to avoid him spreading grumpiness in Buffalo.

The last factor is that the mechanical change offers the Jays and Romero an excuse to have him start in AAA if they don't result in immediately better performances on the field.  At the end of Spring Training, the Jays can simply say that Romero hasn't quite adjusted to his mechanical tweaks and that they want him to spend some time away from the intensity of a season in which the team has very high expectations.

Ricky, meet Buffalo.

On Skill and Talent

"Baseball is ninety percent mental.  The other half is physical."

- Yogi Berra

Baseball is unlike the other "big four" sports -- football, basketball, and hockey.  Except for notable exceptions, successful players take three to five (or more) years to reach the major leagues after being drafted.  However, most never make it.  In hockey, most of the supremely talented "can't miss" prospects don't miss at all and end up in the NHL as very good players, or better.  The same occurs in the NBA and the NFL has a slightly more muddy outlook.

For many of these other athletes, things have to break wrong for them to miss their opportunities.  Injuries, addictions, legal troubles, character issues, and other obstacles separate them from reaching the pinnacle of their sport.

The more I learn about baseball, the more I'm convinced that things have to break right for anyone to reach the major leagues, even the most supremely "talented" athletes.

This past week marked the confluence of several baseball related activities for me.  First of all, I attended my first Spring Training, spending about 9 days in Dunedin, Florida, the spring home of the Blue Jays.  During this time, I had the chance to speak to some scouts and baseball writers, particularly about scouting and evaluation of talent and prospects.  Second, I've been reading Dirk Hayhurst's books, "The Bullpen Gospels" and "Out of My League" which chronicle his journey through the minor leagues and his first taste of big league life.  Third, I finally read "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis.  I had seen the movie, of course, but reading the book at this particular time really set my brain in motion.

I'm convinced that baseball hasn't changed all that much since "Moneyball" came out.  The book examines the Oakland A's of 1999-2003 (with 2002 the prime focus) and their General Manager, Billy Beane.  What Lewis reveals is that Beane, a failed über-prospect himself, had to change the paradigm of talent evaluation and acquisition in order to compete with a far smaller payroll than most of the other major league teams.  By using sophisticated systems of statistical analysis, Beane and his staff (including assistant GM Paul DePosdesta) were successful in being the first major league team to quantify the achievement of wins and find players who could contribute disproportionately to the size of their salaries.

A narrative thread in the book that comes through particularly strongly in the sections on Billy Beane's failures at the highest levels of the game and Scott Hatteberg's successes is that skill, not talent, is the defining factor in the development of major league talent.  Billy Beane, with raw power, speed, and the ability to play defense, never did much in the majors.  What did he have to show for his outsized talent?  He only compiled 315 Plate Appearances in 6 years, hitting .219/.246/.296.  Scott Hatteberg, who couldn't run, or field, and never had awesome power, managed to put it all together in a way that enabled him to not only exceed his expectations, but dominate in his own way (at least for a time).  Hatteberg played in the majors for thirteen seasons, compiling around a league average OPS (.772) in 4876 plate appearances, but owning a lifetime .361 OBP and even at the age of 37, had a career year with the Cincinnati Reds in 2007 putting up a .310/.394/.474 slash line.

What can we learn from this?  Hatteberg had enough talent but excelled at developing his skill as a hitter.*  He was not just a player who relied on his talent, but honed his abilities to control the strike zone throughout his long career.  It was his skill and his commitment to the craft of hitting (particularly the mental approach) that set him up as a major league regular for over 10 years.

Another example of this is the case of Dirk Hayhurst.  Hayhurst, a long-time minor leaguer in the Padres' system, was never a top prospect or had the physical gifts of a top prospect.  In "Out of My League," he talks about how he never lit up the radar gun and how some members of the Padres' coaching staff thought that he must have been drafted as a favour to someone.  So how did Hayhurst, a guy who played three seasons of high-A ball, end up in the majors?  Since his books are more about the experience of playing minor league ball than about minor league ball itself, the nuts and bolts are a little vague.  But it's perfectly clear that Hayhurst made adjustments in his mental approach.  He didn't suddenly develop a killer new pitch.  He didn't add 5 mph on his fastball.  He unlocked the mental skill of pitching and learned how to get batters out.  Hayhurst is another example of a "non-prospect" who could make the most of his physical gifts and rise against overwhelming odds to earn a spot in the major leagues, although he did so in the Padres system rather than with the A's.

Some of Billy Beane's innovations are in much wider use today.  Major league teams are much more aware of the value of OBP and are definitely stressing the "traditional" numbers -- batting average, RBIs, stolen bases -- less than they were before.  However, teams still draft "talent" or "tools."  The Blue Jays are a great example of this.  When Alex Anthopoulos took over as the GM, he went about reconstructing a much more traditional scouting structure that his predecessor, J.P. Ricciardi (who was an assistant to Billy Beane in Oakland), had decimated.  He understood the human element in seeing and evaluating a player firsthand, rather than solely through statistics.**

In my conversations with scouts and writers, they still look at players the same way.  "He's got a great body," they say.  They love players with speed, and pitchers with tall, slim frames who throw hard or who have great "bite" to their breaking-ball.  But while they talked about players' tools, they rarely discussed the players skills.  No scouts I talked to ever discussed an amateur pitcher's ability to work a count.***  None of them talked about a batter's ability to make adjustments.  My guess is that because these skills are so much more difficult to evaluate, especially when seeing a player once or twice, they're not very apparent.

The Oakland A's of the early 2000s HAD to do what they did.  They had to find the rejects and castoffs from other teams by identifying the things that they did well that were undervalued by everyone else.  Today's Blue Jays don't need to do that.  They can afford to keep players who command larger salaries and they can afford to pay large sums of money to prospects as signing bonuses.  And while the Jays are getting some great "high-ceilinged" talent, particularly on the pitching side, they're also getting a lot of guys who seem to not be able to make the most of it on the hitting side.

The more I learn, the more I become convinced that excellence in baseball happens between the ears.  Examples abound at the major league level.  Take Jose Bautista, for example.  Has his talent level changed since bouncing around after signing with Pittsburgh in 2003?  An amateur scout with Pittsburgh at the time, Alvin Rittman told me that they always loved his "intangibles" -- intelligence, leadership, work ethic -- but never expected him to be able to hit with such power.  So how did he become such a dominant offensive force in the game?  He developed his skill which "unlocked" his talent."  A slight mechanical adjustment led to his ability to maximize what he already had.  He always had the ability to get on base -- this was evident even in his first few seasons in Pittsburgh where he consistently put up OBPs 75 to 100 points higher than his batting average.  When he unlocked his ability to destroy many of the pitches he made contact with, it forced pitchers to pitch around him, contributing to some astronomical OBPs, much along the lines of Barry Bondsian numbers.

Jose Bautista understands the skill of hitting.  There are other, very talented players who will never understand this skill.  The more I see out of Colby Rasmus, the more I feel that he's one of these players who has gotten by on talent but ultimately won't be able to put it together at the major league level.  In the minors, there are even more examples of these "toolsy" batters that the Jays scouts have loved, but haven't been able to put it together in pro-ball yet.  Matthew Dean, Dwight Smith Jr., and Jacob Anderson are all high school players that they Jays drafted in early rounds.  These guys have lots of talent, but haven't developed their hitting skills against pro competition where the talent level is much higher than in high school ball.

So what does all of this mean?  Evaluating amateur players in terms of tools is much sexier than talking about a batter's ability to control the strike zone, or a pitcher's ability to out-think the hitter.  Scouts can dream on the player's talent and imagine what he could be if everything goes right.  Unfortunately in baseball, talent only gets you so far.  The pitchers in pro ball have much higher talent levels and the batters, who are forced to react to the pitchers, must develop the skill of hitting in order to progress.  As batters mature, the pitchers can no longer get by on stuff alone and have to learn to mess up the hitter's timing and put the ball in places where the batter can't do much with it.  This spiralling arms race results in an environment in which only the players that can make adjustments to the other side make it in the major leagues.  Once players' weaknesses are discovered and exploited by the other side (remarkably quickly in today's age of internet and video study by ML teams), players who can't adjust don't last long.

So how can teams find a greater number of draftees and prospects who will develop these skills in the long run?  Well, the Oakland A's did have an idea to do it, and that was by selecting players out of college rather than looking for high school players.  The college statistics can be more helpful in finding those players who can take walks and lay off "pitcher's pitches."  Additionally, with a more consistent level of competition in college than in high school, scouts can see how players respond to a higher quality of pitching.  The drawback in this philosophy is that the general understanding is that players with higher ceilings will come more from high school than college.

In addition to having such a large minor league system to fill (compared to the other major sports), I believe that this is why baseball drafts so many players every year.  With forty rounds in which to choose players, teams can focus on "toolsy" players in the early rounds and more "fringey" guys in the later rounds.  The toolsy players have the potential to be superstars IF everything breaks just right.  With the later picks, a team can focus on guys that have demonstrated some skill, but will, most likely, not have the high ceiling of some of the toolsy, high school players.^  These players have usually developed their skills in the college system, and have a chance to really become good players because their skills will translate better into professional ball.

So, it's a toss up.  If you want a player who could become a superstar, look for a high school kid with gobs of talent.  But it's unlikely that the player will develop enough skill to succeed at the major league level.  If you want someone who is more likely to make the major leagues, look for a college player with high skill levels. But these guys may not be superstars or even major league regulars.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.  As the college and high school seasons have begun, teams send their legions of scouts to watch these players in anticipation of the June draft.  Teams will hope to find players with both the tools, and the ability to develop them into major league calibre skills.

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* In "Moneyball," Hatteberg recalls that the Boston Red Sox organization tried to prevent him from developing these skills by being more aggressive at the plate.

** He said as much in an interview with Peter Mansbridge on CBC television.

*** They do talk about pro pitchers' "pitchability," which means how well a pitcher uses what he has and how he understands how to pitch.  Usually, they're talking about pitchers with average or below average tools to explain why they've succeeded, and it's usually used as a secondary evaluation tool.

^ The current financial rules of the draft also play into the need to draft highly touted high school players early because they demand more bonus money for teams to essentially buy them out of going to college.

Follow us on Twitter: @jaysfromaway

Follow Dirk Hayhurst: @thegarfoose

Interview with Zach Mortimer part 3

One of the great things about coming down to Spring Training is that you meet so many fans from all over.  Sure, there are a lot of Canadians down here to catch a glimpse of the Blue Jays or maybe an autograph, but there are also a lot of scouts and baseball writers.

One such person who I've met in Dunedin is Zach Mortimer, a writer for Baseball Prospectus who has been checking out the Blue Jays camp over the past several days.  We got to talking last week and caught up this afternoon for an interview after the Blue Jays intrasquad games today.  It wasn't a long chat -- we got chased away by a security guard who wanted to close up the complex -- but Zach shed some interesting light on the world of scouting and what he thought of the Blue Jays organization, as well as some of the prospects he's seen over the past few days.

Ok, this isn't really part of the interview, but I got Zach to send me his list of the Blue Jays' top 10 prospects.  In fact, one of the first thing we talked about when we met down in Dunedin was my top 20 list that I published just a few days before I went down to Florida.  So it's only fitting that we conclude our discussion with Zach with his top 10 list.

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Zach Mortimer's Blue Jays Top 10

1.       Aaron Sanchez RHP: Plus Plus Fastball, potential for a plus CB and CH. Very impressive starter kit for a number 2 starter.

2.       Daniel Norris LHP:  Plus fastball, Potential for plus CB and CH. All background reports how great the makeup is. Still only 19 and if you want to look at stats from last year look at these:

FIP 3.82, K/9 8.95, and a BABIP over .375. In layman's terms Norris got about as unlucky as humanly possibly last year. Potential 2/3 starter.

3.       Robert Osuna RHP: Plus Fastball, plus CB, solid avg CH. Body lacks physical projection. He is sort of a what you see is what you get. Advanced pitchability for someone his age. Projects as a solid number 3 starter.

4.       Alberto Tirado RHP: Easy Plus Fastball maybe more, Slider could be the same thing getting potential  7 grades, and the changeup is a little further behind but people like the life on it and he is able to throw it with consistent armspeed.

5.       Marcus Stroman RHP: Plus fastball, Plus Plus Slider. I think he is the closer of the future for the Blue Jays and it won’t be long until he is there.

6.       Matt Smoral LHP: Potentially Plus FB, SL, and CH. Could be an absolute monster. Huge frame with long levers. Long way to go but could be more than a number 3 starter.

7.       Sean Nolin LHP: Avg FB, Plus CH, Above avg CB and SL. He is going to be a big leaguer. I’m not sure he will be more than a number 4 starter but he won’t be worse than a 5.

8.       DJ Davis CF: Elite speed, plus arm, plus power potential, hit tool and routes in the OF need a lot of work. Could be a monster, could never get to AA.

9.       Santiago Nessy C: Plus power and plus arm. Big frame good receiver behind the plate. Seemed like a good leader also. Really like this kid reminds me a lot of Royals Sal Perez. He might not have as much pop but they seem like similar players.

10.   Chase DeJong RHP: Currently Avg Fb, with slightly below avg CB/CH. However scouts really like this kids future saying that each of his pitches have the ability to go up atleast a full grade. Could be a mid rotation guy, long way to go.

Honorable Mention:

Adonys Cardona
Franklin Barretto
Mitch Nay
Anthony Alford

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That completes the interview/discussions with Zach Mortimer.  Zach will send me some tidbits throughout the season, so I look forward to hearing more from him!

Part 1 of the interview can be found here: Part 1
Part 2 of the interview can be found here: Part 2

Don't forget to follow us on Twitter -- @jaysfromaway

If you want to find Zach, you can find him on Twitter -- @zachmort

Spring Training Interlude: Interview with Zach Mortimer part 2

One of the great things about coming down to Spring Training is that you meet so many fans from all over.  Sure, there are a lot of Canadians down here to catch a glimpse of the Blue Jays or maybe an autograph, but there are also a lot of scouts and baseball writers.

One such person who I've met in Dunedin is Zach Mortimer, a writer for Baseball Prospectus who has been checking out the Blue Jays camp over the past several days.  We got to talking last week and caught up this afternoon for an interview after the Blue Jays intrasquad games today.  It wasn't a long chat -- we got chased away by a security guard who wanted to close up the complex -- but Zach shed some interesting light on the world of scouting and what he thought of the Blue Jays organization, as well as some of the prospects he's seen over the past few days.

Here is part 2 of the interview with Zach.  He talks more specifically about Blue Jays prospects.  He's already sent me his own Blue Jays top 10 prospects list.  I'm going to get together and talk to him about it and I'll put that up as part 3 of the interview.

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Blue Jays from Away: What else have you seen in some of these Blue Jays prospects at the minor league complex.  We saw a couple of minor league intrasquad games here today.  What have you seen that was promising, what have you seen that is not as much as you hoped from some of these guys?

Zach Mortimer: First, I want to address that the way the Blue Jays approach amateur scouting, I believe is the best way that you can go after it.  They've gone after high-ceiling guys that can be game changing players.  You go after the pitchers with the very, very large frames, that are very projectable that can grow into their bodies, and they may not be throwing 90 now -- but you look at a guy like Matt Smoral, and whatever he's throwing -- Smoral could be throwing 90-91 now, he's 6'9" who knows in 3 years, he could be throwing 98-99.  The arm could come, he could add it, he's got long levers, he's gonna have a ton of deception, and his is just natural deception and not the created deception.  So I would say -- things that I liked from the Blue Jays are: they go after athletes, they go after big-framed pitchers and they go after al ot of velocity and arm speed -- that's important things..  Things that I have not liked -- their hitters are a little behind where their pitching is at.  They had to make the trade to get rid of Jake Marisnick and players like that -- they had to make those trades.  You hate to give up a Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard but, you know what, they got major league talent.  They may win this year because of the farm that they built previously.  And they've applied it to the big league level.  They've gone all in and fans of the Blue Jays need to understand that they may lose on these trades in the long run, BUT if they go all in this year and they make the playoffs and they make a deep run in the playoffs, is that worth it?  I would say yes, it is worth it.

BJfA: And what have you seen from the players today?  Who has surprised you positively, and who has surprised you negatively?

ZM: I was negatively surprised with D.J. Davis --there's no one that's going to be higher on his boat than I am, personally, and I'm still extremely high.  He's just got a little longer to go than I thought, he struggles with pitch recognition and plate coverage, and he's gonna have to work on it.  But he flashes some really loud tools and I would not backtrack on that.  A guy that we saw -- Tucker Donahue -- he made a positive effect on me today.  We looked it up -- he got paid $5000 as a 4th round sign -- he was a guy who was picked solely for the reason he would sign for $5000 and they could use his bonus money on a guy like Matt Smoral or use it for a Marcus Stroman in the first round or D.J. Davis.  So, a guy who said, "Hey, you know what, I'm not going to take a big bonus, I'm not going to take whatever," then he came out here and  he threw 92-94 with a showable slider -- a guy for $5000 -- you're not going to find a guy for $5000 that throws 92-94.  That's a great, great job by the scouting department.

BJfA: We also saw someone like John Stilson today and you saw Sean Nolin (who I didn't see) -- These guys are showing up on a lot of top 20 or top 30 prospect lists for the Jays.  What do you think about those guys?

ZM: Sean Nolin, I'll start with.  My guys at BP ranked him at 4th in the Blue Jays top 20, I believe.  I may be a guy who's not that high on Sean Nolin because he's not really my type of player.  He's definitely a major league piece and he definitely will pitch in the big leagues one day, I guarantee that.  But I think his ceiling is somewhere around a 4th starter because he doesn't have an impressive fastball.  He sat 86-89, topped out at 90,91.  He gets a little run from the left side, so he's got a major league average fastball at best.  His curveball is pretty good -- he had a 2-plane breaking ball and he did a good job with that.  The changeup flashed.  He had some command issues with the changeup.  Eventually, I think he can project into a major league piece.  Secondly, you talked about John Stilson.  He's a guy who fell down draft boards in his draft year because there were worries about his elbow and that he was gonna have Tommy John.  He's fought through it, they've fixed that.  he was up to 96 today, the velocity fell off at the end.  The breaking balls were a little farther behind.  I'm also not going to be very high on him, I think he can be a major league piece, but I just think he's a reliever and he still needs work before he sees major league innings. He has to be able to maintain fastball velocity, and have better command of all secondary pitches. I also worry about him mechanically because he has a lot of moving pieces in delivery which has a little more effort than you would want.

BJfA: You told me that you saw Osuna throwing live BP yesterday.  What did you think about him?

ZM: I thought Osuna looked good.  Another guy who's gonna be a mid-tier starter.  He's got a good fastball - up to 96... 91 to 96. He's got a decent breaking ball, he shows how to spin the curveball pretty well, the changeup's a work in progress but it has pretty good downward action.  The way he projects going forward -- as long as he can maintain his body, that he will be good.  The only thing that you need to worry about with Osuna is that he has a body that could get away from him, he has wide hips.  He's one of those guys where you don't want him to eat his way out of the major leagues.

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Part 1 of the interview can be found here: Part 1
Part 3 of the interview can be found here: Part 3

Don't forget to follow us on twitter @Jaysfromaway 

You can follow Zach @zachmort

Spring Training: part 7

While I'm taking today off of the baseball action (the Jays are out of town in Bradenton and the minor leaguers are just working out today -- no games), I did stumble into some Jays action yesterday.

Yesterday was my day to check out Bright House Field in Clearwater, spring home of the Philadelphia Phillies.  It was a grey day, but I felt like I lucked out with the chance to see Roy Halladay pitch!  I was pretty pumped as I got into the park.  While aesthetically beautiful, I have definitely enjoyed my ballpark experiences more elsewhere.

view from my seat

Doc on the mound

The Tiki Bar

View from the Tiki Bar

Philly Phanatic

More Doc

The concourse of Bright House field is open, meaning that you can stroll around, buying your ballpark snacks and/or merchandise all the while still watching the game.  What ended up happening was there was so much noise coming from the concourse as well as the conversations in the stands that the game seemed almost secondary, whereas at other ballparks I've been to, it's been the primary attraction.  Additionally, Bright House Field seemed to be like a senior's centre more than a ballpark.  People were constantly greeting their old friends and the occasion was more of a social gathering than a baseball game.

Unfortunately, the game was a dog.  Doc threw 2 2/3 innings, giving up 6 hits, 7 runs and walking 4.  It was ugly.  Detroit RF Andy Dirks continued to impress me though, by making consistent, solid contact every time he was up to bat.

I ended up leaving the game early and, on a last-minute inspiration, wandered to the adjoining minor league complex where the Blue Jays AAA and AA teams were playing the Phillies squads.*  I was kicking myself at this point.  I was told that I had missed seeing Brandon Morrow throw in the minor league game, as well as Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez in the other game.

As a result, I only saw a few players further down on the depth charts.  I did have a nice chat with Alvin Rittman, a pro scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Rittman played a couple of years of minor league ball as an infielder in 1989 and 1990 after being selected by the Mariners in the 48th round of the 1989 draft.  He gave me some pointers on looking at players as well as shared some info about being an amateur scout when the Pirates signed Jose Bautista.  He told me that they always loved his makeup and intangibles, thought that he wouldn't end up playing the infield, but never thought that he'd explode for as much power as he did.

I watched reliever Shawn Griffith throw a couple of innings against the Phillies minor leaguers.  I situated myself near Aaron Sanchez who was working the radar gun and noted that he was throwing mostly fastballs (around 90mph) and cutters (sitting 84-86) and throwing in an occasional curveball in the high 70s.  Griffith split the year between Lansing and Dunedin last year and will probably end up in Dunedin again this year.  He seemed to struggle with his control last year.  He got hit hard and his cutter didn't appear to move an awful lot.  I don't think there's enough movement on the cutter or fastball to be successful without throwing the curveball.  And if he can't throw strikes with the curveball, he'll have a very difficult time this year.

I watched Chorye Spoone and Joel Carreno with Alvin.  Alvin commented that Carreno had put on some weight and that his windup was "methodical," meaning "slow."  Spoone didn't throw a lot of strikes and while Carreno did at first, he was leaving a lot of things up in the zone.  After he got hit a bit with his stuff up in the zone, he started bringing it down, but missing in the dirt.  You could tell that Carreno has a very good offspeed pitch, with two-plane break (meaning that it broke both horizontally and vertically), but the problem yesterday was location.  Carreno has posted very good numbers everywhere except for his stint in Las Vegas last year (including around 15 innings in the majors in 2011), so let's hope that Buffalo treats him better than the desert did.

Of the hitters I saw, Leo Hernandez had a nice hit (Hernandez has been in the Jays system since signing as an international free agent from Venezuela in 2007, but hasn't progressed beyond Short-Season A ball), and Chris Hawkins really impressed me with his speed.  Hawkins is a big guy (he's got to be more than the 195 that he's listed at on Milb.com), but runs really well.  He seems to hit the ball a long way in BP but that hasn't translated to big power in game action, however, yesterday, Hawkins beat out an infield hit that seemed like a routine grounder to short.

That was my day yesterday.  I'll leave you with a photo of a Jays batter at the plate.  I think it's Kevin Pillar.

Jays batter with the ball in flight

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* I use AAA and AA somewhat loosely.  Many AAA players are still with the major league clubs and the rosters are filled out with whoever the team wanted to send over.