Prospects! part 14: Gulf Coast League Blue Jays - hitting, and others

The Bad Boy Football "Star": Anthony Alford
The Domincan: Dawel Lugo
Gone baby gone: Wuilmer Becerra

Photo: Perfectgame.org

Much has been written about the Jays' 3rd round pick of 2012 OF Anthony Alford.  Alford is not only trying to play college football, but he has had some trouble with the law.  While he won't go to prison, he is transferring to another Mississippi school and will not even be able to play football in 2013 (due to NCAA transfer rules), but will still be practicing with the team, forcing him to leave baseball in early August.  The Jays are hoping to get him into camp for extended spring training and some at bats in rookie ball before he leaves.  What is truly a shame is that he is an extraordinary athlete that could achieve amazing things on a baseball field if he gave it the same attention he gives football.  He has explosive speed and power, but most scouts are worried that he will lose some of the most important years of his development pursuing his football dreams and won't end up at the top level in either sport.

Photo: Unknown

SS Dawel Lugo has been characterized as an above average defensive player who may develop at the plate, but will need a lot of time.  He's only 18 (signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic) and some think that his mediocre stats at Dunedin (.224/.275/.329) will improve as he matures.

Didn't Play in 2012:  Franklin Barreto, Mitch Nay, Matt Smoral

Photo: Victor Calvo

There were a few Jays who didn't play in 2012 that are on prospect radars for the coming year. 

SS Franklin Barreto was the top ranked international free agent this year and signed on with the Jays.  Barreto will only be 17 this year but scouts think that he might end up at second base or outfield due to his size (5'9") and poor footwork in the infield.  He has excellent speed and could have a decent bat in the long run.

Photo: Bluejaysplus.com

Matt Smoral is a big high-school lefty (6'8") who missed playing in 2012 due to a stress fracture in his foot.  He'll be 19 this year and he'll probably be in Bluefield or Vancouver this year.  He throws in the low 90s and has a potentially good slider.  Kiley McDaniel at Fangraphs said the he didn't throw any changeups in the instructional league while Jonathan Mayo says his changeup is solid.  McDaniel projects him as a 2/3 starter if that changeup develops into a major league average pitch. 

Photo: Battersbox.ca

3B Mitch Nay will be 19 this year after missing 2012 with an injury but has been described as being a very good defensive 3B with a really good arm.  He has a ton of power but will probably need to work on his plate discipline as he matures through the minors.

Prospects! part 13: Gulf Coast League Jays - pitching

Internationals: Yeyfry del Rosario, Adonys Cardona, Jairo Labourt
High Draftees: Chase DeJong, Tyler Gonzales

Yeyfry del Rosario posted a strong first year in the US minor leagues.  As an 18 year old in Dunedin, he had outstanding strikeout numbers (28.3%) while keeping a really low walk percentage (6.5%).  These two keys are probably the most important things to look at as Del Rosario will turn 19 this April. His FIP was only 2.24 (with a 3.63 ERA), and he was getting a lot of ground balls (1.72 GO/AO) ratio and only gave up 1 HR in 44 2/3 innings.  His stuff seems to be average at this point, but being so young, he could refine things and seems to have good command -- Bluebird Banter has him as their 22nd top prospect.

Photo: JaysProspects.com

Adonys Cardona is making top prospect lists around the blogosphere.  Bloggers and writers love the Venezuelan's stuff including his 92-93 mph heat and his good change and developing curve.  He had great strikeout numbers in 2012, his 2nd year in Dunedin, but struggled with his control.  Look for him to put up strong numbers if he can find the strike zone as he'll probably play in Bluefield or Vancouver in 2013.

As another 18 year old in Dunedin, Jairo Labourt put up decent numbers.  He struck out over a batter an inning, but walked quite a few (13.3%).  Labourt is a big lefty who can touch 93 and has a potentially average slider and a weak changeup.    Judging from the scouting report I've seen, he may end up as a bullpen option if he gets to the majors.

Photo: www.gazettes.com

Chase DeJong was the Jays' 2nd rounder in 2012 and managed to throw 12 dominant innings in Dunedin this season.  Kiley McDaniel saw him in the Fall Instructional League and said that height and arm angle give him good downwards plane on his pitches and he sits between 89 and 91 on the radar gun (with potential to pick up some velocity as he matures) and has a good and still developing changeup.  DeJong will be 19 this year and could be in either Bluefield or Vancouver coming out of extended spring training.

Tyler Gonzales didn't show much in Dunedin in 2012.  A supplemental round pick, he has some mechanical issues to work on but has shown the ability to adjust so far.  A lot is up in the air for Gonzales in 2013.  Gonzales has been showing up on the prospect radar, usually below #20, but definitely hanging around.  He’s got 2 pitches right now, with a fastball sitting 92-95 mph and a slider with at least plus potential. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel reports that his changeup is flat and he doesn’t throw it much.  While he’s shown the ability to clean up his mechanics a bit since signing, most scouts see him as a reliever when all is said and done.

Prospects! part 12: Bluefield Blue Jays - Hitting

AKA: Jorge Vega-Rosado
3TO: Eric Arce
Reversals of Fortune Needed: Jacob Anderson, Matthew Dean

Photo: Unknown

Drafted in 2011, Jorge Vega-Rosado bounced around a lot in 2012 before settling in Bluefield after an outstanding 2011 in Dunedin for the GCL Blue Jays.  He really didn't hit anywhere else, but the sample sizes were far too small to really tell anything (21 ABs in the GCL and 22 ABs in Lansing).  Generally, Vega-Rosado's numbers were down all over the place, but particularly, he only stole 7 bases (4 CS) in Bluefield to 22 in 2011.  He also goes by the name Chino Vega, so look for him, probably in Vancouver or as a backup infielder in Lansing in 2013.

Photo: Jaysprospects.com

Florida native Eric Arce was selected by the Jays in the 2011 draft and followed up an outstanding 2011 in Dunedin (GCL) with a strong 2012 in Bluefield.  Arce is making a name for himself based on his power, but has shown that he can take a walk in addition to hittin the ball out of park.  He strikes out far too much (34.6% in 2012) which can be a warning sign as he moves through the system.  He could be a 3TO (3 True Outcome) player -- one who either hits a home run, walks, or strikes out in almost every at bat.  This will be his age 21 season and Arce will probably be in Vancouver, mostly as a DH or occasional left fielder.

Photo: Futurejays.com

OF Jacob Anderson is a supplemental round pick from the big 2011 draft the Jays had.  In his first complete season, he struggled mightily, hitting .194/.271/.304.  Anderson comes as a highly touted power bat and needs to put together a good season in 2013 to redeem himself.  The organization probably still sees the potential for a bright future in him, but he's going to have to prove himself if he ever wants to get out of short-season ball. 

Photo: Bleacherreport.com

3B Matthew Dean was drafted in the 13th round of the 2011 draft and signed for a way above slot bonus. He made his pro debut this season for Bluefield and, like Anderson, had a tough year. The third baseman hit .222/.282/.353, and struck out 33% of the time. This is acceptable for someone like Arce, who had an OBP 100 points higher and a SLG almost 130 points higher than Dean, but Dean only walked in 6.6% of PAs. If he can make better contact and show more discipline, Dean could really be something, but if he can't adapt his swing and and pitch selection to the pro game, he's going to have trouble going forward.

What to Expect from Blue Jays from Away (in Toronto)

Well, Spring Training has started and it's an exciting time to be a Blue Jays fan.  I've been back in Toronto since the end of November and have FINALLY finished my PhD.  I'll be sticking around here until I really know the next step in my career, but in reality, it will probably take me somewhere else although the time frame is up in the air.

So what should you expect from this blog over the next few months?

Well, first of all, I'm not getting paid for this and I'm not writing for an established media outlet, so I don't have to write every day.  I think it's a good thing.  The blogosphere is pretty saturated with the same stories of the Jays picking up X player from waivers and DFAing another who gets picked up waivers, etc.  I also don't feel the need to summarize what other guys out there are writing about general day-to-day activity of the team, or commenting on R.A. Dickey's press conferences, etc.

In the next little bit, I'm going to finish up the Prospects! series by March 1.  There are 4 more parts, and I'll publish the second half of the the Bluefield Blue Jays report tomorrow (2/21), with the last 3 coming next week.  I'm traveling on the weekend (visiting old friends in Boston) and probably will be without the computer.

Following the completion of the series will be my Spring Training updates.  Yes. I'll be heading to Spring Training on March 6 and see 3 games in Florida Auto Exchange Stadium and I'll do my best to get to at least one road game and several minor league games.  I hope to be able to watch as many workouts and minor league games as I can and I'd like to report daily on what I've seen, actually getting my own eyes on the players.  I hope to take some video and even get some interviews while I'm there.

In the regular season, I intend to watch as many games on TV as possible and I already have tix to a couple of games in April and May.  I'm also going to try to get to Buffalo a couple of times to check out the Bisons in person.

I'd like to give regular minor league updates, perhaps featuring a Jays' minor leaguer once a week and discussing other reports that come out.  I don't anticipate writing every day, but I'm now officially unemployed (I'll formally graduate in June, but I'm done everything), so I may have nothing better to do!

I hope that those of you who have been reading keep reading, and if you haven't been reading, well.... why not?

Prospects! part 11: Bluefield Blue Jays - Pitching

Gone, Baby, Gone: Kevin Comer, Joe Musgrove
King Scrabble the Third: Jeremy Gabryszwski
Griff:* Griffin Murphy
Keep your eye on: Alberto Tirado
Couldn't think up a catchy title: Alonzo Gonzalez
The Canadian: Tom Robson

Photo: FutureJays.com

In his first real season of professional ball, Jeremy Gabryszwski (he managed to throw only 5 1/3 innings in his draft year of 2011) had a very good season mostly as a starter for Bluefield.  He was very good at keeping the ball on the ground and limiting walks (only 4 in 46 innings), but Gaby will be 20 on opening day and needs to post better strike out numbers in order to really be effective at higher levels of ball.  At least that what John Sickels writes, who ranks Gaby as the 19th best prospect in the Jays system and wants to see the youngster's breaking ball develop more.

Photo: FutureJays.com. Yes. the 'stache is awesome.

LHP Griffin Murphy (mlb.com 2013 ranking = 17) has done enough in his first two years of pro ball to merit listing as Jays Journal's #28 ranked prospect (http://jaysjournal.com/2012/11/23/2013-top-prospects-28-griffin-murphy/).  Coming out of the bullpen (mostly) in Bluefield, Murphy was very effective, garnering 42 strikeouts in 37 innings while giving up only 24 hits and 13 walks.  Kyle Matte at Jays Journal thinks that there are some mechanical flaws in Murphy's delivery that will need to be ironed out but they like his raw stuff: an 89-92 mph fast ball (which could sit higher when he's used in relief) with good control but average movement and potentially average curveball and changeup.  Forecasters don't see much potential beyond a solid left-handed relief arm.

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Alberto Tirado  is a very young right-hander that was signed as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2011.  He made his US pro debut in 2012 to excellent results.  Since he's signed, his fastball velocity has jumped a lot - from about 87-91 to the 93-95 range.  He spent most of the season in the Gulf Coast League but managed 3 starts (and 11 innings) in Bluefield before the end of the season.  Tirado posted outstanding numbers as a 17 year old in the GCL with a 1.08 WHIP and 34 strikeouts in 37 innings and will probably start in Bluefield or Vancouver in his age-18 season.  He is definitely one to watch as he rises through the system.

Photo: smmirror.com

Alonzo Gonzalez is another pitcher who spent most of the season with the Gulf Coast League Jays before making 2 very good starts in Bluefield.  At the higher level, he threw 12 shutout innings, giving up only 6 baserunners (3 hits, 3 walks) while striking out 9.  His numbers in 37 innings in the GCL weren't as pretty, compiling a 5.15 ERA, but a respectable 1.34 WHIP, mainly due to his decent walk numbers.  His K% was only 14.3% in Dunedin though.    Gonzalez is a lefty who was drafted in the 18th round out of Glendale Community College in 2012.  According to the only scouting report I could find, he throws a high-80s fastball with a change that was his out pitch and a curve that he didn't throw much.  It's hard to say what the future will bring for Gonzalez, mainly because he's not really a "prospect" per se, although he may add fastball velocity as fills his 6'5" frame.  However, as a lefty, he could always find a niche somewhere.

Photo: Alexis Brudnicki

Drafted in the 4th round of the 2011 draft out of Delta BC, Tom Robson made his professional debut in 2012 with the Bluefield Blue Jays.  It's tough to tell anything from his stats, mainly because Robson only threw 11 innings, got hit fairly hard (2 HRs and 5 ER) but struck out 7 and didn't walk anyone.  I can't find what the injury was, but Robson was placed on the 7 day DL in the Appalachian league on July 16th, 10 days after his last appearance.

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* Yes.  I'm simultaneously referencing Back to the Future II and Married With Children.

Prospects! part 10: Vancouver Canadians - Hitting

The Backstop - Santiago Nessy
The Budding Star - D.J. Davis
The Legacy - Dwight Smith Jr.
The Veteran - Balbino Fuenmayor
The Surprise - Matt Newman
The Slugger - Art Charles
The Sleeper - Christian Lopes

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Catcher Santiago Nessy has been on scouts' and analysts' radar for the last couple of years, making Marc Hulet's Top 15 prospects list (#13 before this off-season's trades) and was #9 (of 20) on John Sickels's list at minorleagueball.com.  He is generally categorized as a solid defensive catcher who will be able to stick behind the plate with plenty of power.  The major concern is with Nessy's propensity to strike out, which, last season, was above 25% at both the Advanced Rookie level in Bluefield and in Vancouver.  Nessy had a solid season last year in Bluefield, hitting for a .256/.320/.456 line.  While his batting average was 50 points down from his .306 season in Dunedin, his slugging was quite a bit higher as he hit 16 extra-base hits (including 8 home runs) in 160 ABs in Bluefield.  Nessy has shown improvements in his ability to take a walk, and if he can make strides in this area of the game Nessy could get people excited.  He will most likely start 2013 in Vancouver, although he could end up in Lansing if he shows promise in spring training and extended spring training (or if injuries strike).

Photo: Battersbox.ca

OF D.J. Davis (mlb.com ranking = #4) was the Jays' first selection in the 2012 draft and impressed the Blue Jays staff enough in his time last season to get advanced from the lowest minor league level, the Gulf Coast League, all the way to Short-Season A in Vancouver.  While the raw numbers aren't all that great, they should be taken with a grain of salt -- the Gulf Coast League, where he had most of his at bats, is a very difficult level on hitters.  He did show surprising power, hitting 4 HR, 7 2B and 2 3B in Dunedin at the GCL, and carried that success over to the Appalachian League (Bluefield) hitting .340 with 3 2B, 1 3B and 1 HR in only 47 ABs.  While Davis still strikes out a fair bit (28.4% in Dunedin, 18.9% in Bluefield), he has started taking walks and posted solid OBPs wherever he went.  He also has great speed and defense, stealing 25 bases last season (in only 266 PAs).  Davis will be 18 to start the season but, according to Jays Journal, he may begin 2013 as high as Lansing.  I can see the Jays starting him there to get at bats in, but then demote him to Vancouver when the Short Season schedule begins. 

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Dwight Smith Jr. (mlb.com ranking = 17) was selected 53rd overall in 2011 and made his professional baseball debut this season, playing 41 games in Bluefield and 18 games in Vancouver.  Unlike Davis, Smith struggled, only putting up a 78 wRC+*in Bluefield.  He didn't strike out that much (12.7% in Bluefield, 15.5% in Vancouver), but really has not shown the ability to hit for average.  Smith will most likely start in Vancouver, and Jonathan Mayo thinks that he'll end up being a LF in the long run.

Photo: Vancouver Canadians/MilB.com

Balbino Fuenmayor  has been around the Jays system since 2007, moving around between Rookie, Short Season A and Full Season A ball.  He hasn't really been successful but had a strong year in Vancouver last year, hitting .282/.325/.471.  His biggest problems are not enough walks and too many strikeouts, but he hit 20 2B and 9 HR in 2012.  He's a little old for Vancouver and if he doesn't start in Lansing, it may be time to write him off.

Photo: Kyle Rosetta

Matt Newman was a non-drafted Free Agent in 2011 who joined the Jays and has climbed to Vancouver in his 2 pro seasons.  Newman posted solid numbers and displayed a fair bit of speed, with 5 triples and 6 stolen bases.  His K% isn't good (23.8%) but he had a very respectable 11.7 BB%.  That, combined with solid contact contributed to a .262/.352/.462 line and a 129 wRC+.  Newman is old for the level (24 in 2013) and should start in Lansing, probably as a backup.

Photo: Yourvancs.com

Art Charles, 22, is another older player (at least for Vancouver) who's looking to being moving up through the full season meat of the Blue Jays system.  Charles is a slugging 1B/DH and has power to spare, slamming 13 HRs between Bluefield and Vancouver last season, but his OBP dropped off a cliff when he crossed the border.  Charles, a 2010 20th round draftee went from a 26.8% BB rate in Bluefield and a 9.2% BB rate in Vancouver.  His strikeout rate remained about the same, as did his batting average, so if Charles can be more patient, he could be quite productive.  Which level he'll open 2013 at is questionable.  He may stay back in Vancouver another year, or start in Lansing.

Photo: Unknown

Christian Lopes (mlb.com ranking = #12) is a sleeper infielder who's starting to get some attention (now that the top prospects in the system have been traded).  The 20 year old was drafted in the 7th round of 2011 and made his pro debut in 2012.  Like many other top prospects, he started at Bluefield and was moved up to Vancouver to end the season.  The middle-infielder is being projected to have a solid bat and good glove, although he needs more time adjust to playing 2B.  In 2012, he showed an ability to make contact, posting lower K%s than a lot of the players discussed here, but he could also be more patient.  He's definitely someone to keep an eye on in 2013, and I'd look for him to start in Lansing, or at least be an early call if there are injuries in the infield after the season starts.

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* wRC+ is a kind of catch-all statistic called "weighted Runs Created Plus." Basically it looks at how the player creates runs while taking into account ballpark factors.  The "plus" in some baseball statistics takes the basic stat and turns it into a number that compares it to league average.  100 is average, and every number above and below 100 means that the player's performance was better or worse than league average by 1 per cent.  So a 78 wRC+ means that the player was 22% below league average according to wRC.  See Fangraphs.com for more information.

Baseball Returns

Today's post is partially to remind myself that I'm still out here in baseball land, and partially to get some of the Spring Training excitement out of my system.

I haven't written much lately, mostly because I've been gearing up for the defense of my PhD dissertation (and making subsequent revisions).  With everything about to be finally handed in this week, I'm just about to be ready for baseball overload!

In terms of what to expect from the blog over the coming weeks, here it is.  I'm getting close to being done my 2012 prospect wrap ups (almost finished the writing part, I'll get to posting them by the end of March).

Also, it looks like I'll be heading down to Florida for a week or so of Spring Training, which, I hope, will get me some great content for the blog.

I did think about writing a preview of the coming season and what we can expect/not expect from this revamped 2013 Blue Jays squad, but just about every blogger has pretty much beaten me to it (I've been busy with other things).

While some think the Jays are going to be the "Beast in the East" (like Yahoo!'s Tim Brown), personally, I'm not so sure.  I have a lot of questions about this team.  While we're far deeper than we were last year with a much more balanced team on offense and defense, there are still things that we can't count on.

Questions:

1. Which version of Ricky Romero will show up?
2. Is Melky for real?
3. Who's gonna play second base, and whoever it is, can he hit enough to not wish for Aaron Hill back?
4. Can Jose Reyes stay injury free?
5. Is Jose Bautista's wrist good to go?
6. Is EE for real?
7. Can Mark Buehrle give us another 200 inning season of solid ball?
8. How does Josh Johnson hold up in the AL East?
9. Does Brett Lawrie progress or not?
10. Bullpen pt. 1: Are Casey and Sergio ready for opening day?
11. Bullpen pt. 2: Can Steve Delabar and Esmil Rogers repeat what they did after their mid-season trades last year?
12. Bullpen pt. 3: Who's gonna make the last couple of spots?
13. Anyone remember Adam Lind?
14. Mark Delarosa?  Really?
15. Will Colby Rasmus actually be able to be good.... ever?

So as you can see, there are a lot of questions.  However, I think it bodes well to see that my question about Brett Lawrie is #9.  However, it doesn't bode all that well to think that John Gibbons is talking about batting him 5th in the order.

So here's my biggest concern:  You've got a potentially fantastic top 4 in the order in Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista and Encarnacion IF they all have good years.  But they all have questions about their ability to come back and put up those kinds of numbers in 2013.  Reyes's durability, Cabrera's PED-less body, Bautista's wrist and Encarnacion's one big season all beg the kinds of questions that could make the Blue Jays somewhat less than they are expected to be.

With a 5-9 of Lawrie, Rasmus, Arencibia, Izturis/Bonifacio, and Lind/Davis, there are a lot of IFs in this lineup.

Only time will answer these questions.