Prospects! part 5: Dunedin Blue Jays - Pitching

Dark Horse: Marcus Walden
The Closer: Danny Barnes
A Tale of 2 Cities: Jesse Hernandez

Men are from: Dayton Marze

Photo: Jim Goins

The more I looked at Marcus Walden while researching this article, the more I began to think that there might be more to him than just another minor league pitcher.  To demonstrate how little information there is about him, it took me about 20 minutes of searching the internet just to find a scouting report.* The one report I managed to find (from Lansing in early 2012) suggested that Walden tired quickly and may end up in the bullpen.  Walden has been in the Jays system for a long time now (drafted in 2007), and probably has stayed under the radar due to his lack of overpowering stuff and his disastrous 2009 season where he only pitched 16 2/3 innings in Dunedin (to an 8.64 ERA), a level that was probably a bit over his head at the time.  I haven't been able to find a reason for his season being cut short (and missing the entire 2010 season), but I would suppose that it is due to injury.  He came back in 2011 to pitch a solid season in Lansing, where he opened 2011.  After 14 excellent starts there in 2012, he was promoted to Dunedin where he pitched even BETTER over 13 appearances (12 starts) and 77 2/3 innings.  He posted a 14.4% K rate (below average) there and brought his walk numbers more in line with his 2011 numbers (6.2%).  Again, while I can't find what kind of stuff he throws, it's clear from the stats that Walden's success, particularly in Dunedin came from his excellent control and his ability to have hitters hit the ball on the ground.  He has historically had VERY low HR rates (giving up only 5 in 2011 and 2012 combined), and very high ground ball rates (2.82 GO/AO in 2012; only under 2.00 twice since 2007).  Walden is now 24 years old, and will probably have to start in AA next season in order to really be viewed as a viable candidate to make the majors at some point.  However, the Jays have liked these extreme ground ball pitchers in recent years (think Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchison, and Chad Jenkins) which may give Walden a fighting chance.

Photo: Jim Goins

Danny Barnes is a 2010 college draftee of the Jays who is now 23 years old and put up a fantastic season for the Dunedin Jays coming out of the bullpen, setting a new team record for saves (34).  He compiled 51 1/3 innings while striking out 63 and walking only 16 (30.7% K rate, 7.8% BB rate).  He throws in the low-mid 90s and has a couple of options for offspeed pitches but the most recent scouting report that I read indicates that his slider is his best pitch and is particularly effective against right handed batters.  He'll probably start in New Hampshire where he got a brief look-see this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Buffalo by the end of the year.  He may have the stuff to pitch in the bigs sometime next year, but with how crowded the bullpen is looking, I don't think he'll get that chance.

Photo: Jim Goins

Pitching in Lansing, 24-year-old Jesse Hernandez looked like he belonged with the Lansing Three (Sanchez and the now traded Syndergaard, Nicolino), despite being 4 years older then any of them.  In 95 2/3 innings in Lansing, Hernandez put up a 2.26 ERA and gave up 82 hits and 19 walks.  The one thing that these cherry picked numbers didn't show is that Hernandez only struck out 16.1% of batters (61 strikeouts in the aforementioned 95 2/3 innings).  After making the jump to Dunedin, in 47 2/3 innings, Hernandez had a 6.61 ERA, maintaining (generally) his strikeout and walk ratios, but getting hit much more, particularly with the ball leaving the park (7 HR in Dunedin compared to 2 HR in almost exactly twice as many innings in Lansing).  According to a "self scouting report" from OK Blue Jays blog, Hernandez is mostly a sinker ball pitcher who has picked up a cutter.  He also says that he throws a slider and a change up.  I have a feeling that he doesn't throw all that hard, which makes any kind of projection of a 24 year old A-ball pitcher with one or two variations of a fastball very difficult.  However, if he takes his rough time in Dunedin as a learning experience, he might come out of it with further advancement through the system in 2013.

Photo: Unknown

Dayton Marze has shown up on the Jays Journal Top 50 prospects list for the last couple of years (landing at #39 in 2011) and had a very solid year at Dunedin in his age-23 season.  The most recent scouting report I could find indicates that Marze (in 2011) was throwing 89-93 with a sinker that was an effective weapon for him.  In his first season of pro-ball in Auburn (the Jays' Short-Season A affiliate before they moved it to Vancouver) he was very effective in just over 26 innings, and had another solid season as a workhorse reliever in Lansing in 2011.  There, he saw a rise in both his K% (to 19.3%) and his BB% (to 8.4%) while his ground out ratio fell (although was still good at 1.60 GO/AO).  In over 70 innigns in Dunedin this season, while he posted a very good ERA (2.82) and an improved WHIP (1.31), his GO/AO ratio (1.09) and K% (12.5%) fell and his BB% went up a tick (to 8.8%).  Marze will probably start 2013 in AA, but I'm not sure if success there will follow unless he improves his secondary pitches and can miss some bats.

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*Stats are easy to find.... scouting reports of more obscure players, not so much. 

On Risks and Rewards

The rewards are simple: A World Series championship.

The risks, however, need much more discussion before we can truly understand what is at play in the reported trade with the Mets for R.A. Dickey.

In the best case scenario, General Manager's job is basically about balancing risks against this one reward.  While some GMs may be going after a different reward (turning a profit, keeping his job), I'm working under the assumption that Alex Anthopoulos isn't one of those GMs who is under pressure from management to keep his job, or hamstring his attempts to put together a winning team by imposing a restrictive budget.

Risks are inherent in all aspects of baseball (general) managing.  There used to be 50 rounds in the major league draft.  Why? Because baseball has the largest gap between the level of skill required to succeed at the top professional level than college or high school levels of any sport.  Along the journey from draftee to major leaguer, almost ALL draftees fail.  Drafting any player is a risk.

Signing players to any contract is another risk.  They can be injured at any point along the way, or they can just fail to perform as expected.  This risk is magnified with long term contracts although GMs gamble that the player will stay healthy and contribute enough to mitigate those risks.

Anthopoulos has shown the ability, in his tenure as GM of the Toronto Blue Jays, to both minimize and maximize risk.  To minimize risk, he has greatly increased the size of the scouting staff from that of his predecessor, thus increasing the amount of information coming in to inform his decisions.  He has taken more risks by drafting more high school players and more "high upside" players, as one baseball writer (can't remember which one) has remarked in compiling his top 10 Blue Jays prospects list that the Jays have not been successful drafting high-upside batters over the past few seasons. They have also been drafting players with loads of potential that other teams are staying away from due to other concerns like signability, injury, or character (Anthony Alford, Matt Smoral, and many others).

This pattern of high-risk acquisitions has been repeated  at the major league level, by following AA's pattern of "buying low" on guys like Yunel Escobar, Colby Rasmus, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Lawrie.  He has also taken risks in signing a player like Jose Bautista to a five-year contract after his breakout season, gambling that he was really the player of 2010, not the player of the years before.

Clearly, Anthopoulos is not afraid of taking a risk.  Many people are saying that (if the rumours are true) if the Jays give up both Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard for R.A. Dickey, then they are overpaying.  However, this is clearly a calculated risk by AA.  Here's why.

1. The "Bautista Window."  Apparently, Anthopoulos promised Jose Bautista that he would do his best to make the Blue Jays competitive in the playoffs in the window provided by Bautista's 5 year contract (signed before the 2011 season).  Additionally, the Bautista Window includes the years that the Jays will have players like Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow under contract.  After the MegaTrade with Miami, Anthopoulos was already going for more than just a steadily improving young ball club that could eventually win.  Now, with the acquisition of Dickey, he's solidifying holes and trading away prospects whose impact on the major league team will be nil in 2013.

2. Prospects rarely exceed expectations at the major league level.  We saw one of these last season in Mike Trout, but it's really rare for a rookie (and a 20-year-old for that matter) to give you jaw dropping production. This is why AA is spending prospects like currency going back to the J.A. Happ trade last season.  As many other writers have said, prospects have two purposes - developing into Major Leaguers to help your team, and being traded to get Major Leaguers to help your team.

3. The nature of the Jays team and farm system.  As I've written about previously, the Blue Jays already have a pretty good offense that has gotten better over the off-season.  Combined with the return of Jose Bautista, the Jays have added Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera who will be significant improvements over the 2012 players who played SS and LF.  Additionally, the Jays will hopefully get better production out of the 2B spot.  Even without improvements by J.P. Arencibia, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind, and Colby Rasmus, this is a good offensive team.  The Jays also had a potential contributor in 2013 in Travis d'Arnaud, and still have Anthony Gose who could contribute next season as well (assuming that d'Arnaud and not Gose is included in the Dickey deal).

On the other hand, the pitching in 2012 was atrocious.  And the Jays did not have a lot of help coming through the system.  Injuries to Drew Hutchison, Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, and others mean that they are not available until after the all-star break at the earliest.  The minor league system was stocked (and still isn't bare) with pitching prospects -- for the most part -- from the A-ball level down.  If Anthopoulos wants to take advantage of his good offense, he needed to get quality pitching NOW, and by trading for it, he avoids paying mediocre pitchers $18 million and locking himself in to 5 year contracts.

The way the farm system is set up, there are no pitchers coming to help the already good hitting that is present on the major league team.  Not in 2013 (ok, maybe Marcus Stroman), and the elite prospects are still 2-3 years away.  This off-season has been about taking the big risk to achieve the big reward - a World Series, and the way that Anthopoulos has had to do it was to sacrifice players who can not make an impact in 2013 to acquire the pitching that will now catch up to the hitting.

Do I like the deal?  It doesn't matter.  What matters is that Alex Anthopoulos feels that the reward -- the ability to compete for a World Series title -- will justify the risk.

Prospects! Part 4: New Hampshire Fisher Cats - Hitters

The Lost Season: C A.J. Jimenez

Under the Radar: IF Ryan Schimpf, OF Brad Glenn

The Steal: 1B Gabe Jacobo

Photo: Unknown

A.J. Jiminez (current MLB.com ranking - #18) is only 21, but he's been showing up on top prospect radars since 2009.  Jiminez is yet another catcher who may project to be a premium player, but in his injury-shortened 2012 season didn't show much with the bat.  He has been known for his defense and his contact hitting abilities (shown mostly in A-ball), but has not yet shown any power.  He'll most likely start 2013 as a DH in New Hampshire until his arm fully recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Photo: Ken Ryan/NH Fisher Cats

Ryan Schimpf has been toiling in the Jays minor league system since being a 5th round draft pick in 2009 out of LSU and was one of the real leaders in power  numbers in the Jays' system in 2012.  While his counting stats weren't impressive in 2011, you could see that he had power to spare, when he hit 10 HRs in 196 at bats in Dunedin.  He responded with another 22 HR in 472 ABs in 2012, split between Dunedin and New Hampshire.  Schimpf also shows good plate discipline (a knock on him earlier in his career), taking plenty of walks and getting on base.  it's unknown where the Blue Jays see him defensively.  In Dunedin he spent most of his time at 2B, where he made a lot of errors, while he played 3B and LF a lot in New Hampshire.  One thing is for sure, the Fisher Cats will want to get his bat in the line-up in 2013. Due to his age (24), Schimpf is not considered to be a real major league candidate for the Jays, but his versatility and his power will probably keep him employed in pro baseball for quite a while, and, if he does explode with a more eye-popping season (perhaps increasing his batting average to the .300 range, or hitting 25+ home runs in AA/AAA), he may appear on a few more radar screens.

Photo: Kevin Littlefield/NH Fisher Cats

 While OF Brad Glenn has been able to maintain his ability to hit for power in his rise throughout the Blue Jays' system, he has seen a steady drop in batting average and OBP at each level, casting great doubt on the 25-year-old's ability to ever play in the majors.  While Glenn led the Fisher Cats in home runs with 19 in 2012, his .233 batting average and .291 OBP just won't cut it.  If I was running the Jays, I'd have Glenn repeat the level, but the Jays had a large number of outfielders in AAA declare minor league free agency, and there may be a need in Buffalo next year.

Photo: Ken Ryan/NH Fisher Cats

Ok, so maybe Gabe Jacobo's not a steal, but he turned out to be a major league talent in an online league of OOTP Baseball that I'm in, and he did put up some good minor league numbers in the Jays organization in 2012 after being selected in the minor league portion of the Rule V draft.  Jacobo is also 25, so he's not really a prospect, but has been able to provide the Jays with a power hitting 1B in the high minors.  He'll probably return to AA in 2013, mainly because of the logjam at the position between the major league and AAA levels with EE, Adam Lind, Travis d'Arnaud, David Cooper, and Mike McDade all ahead of him on the depth chart.  NOTE: McDade was picked up on waivers by Cleveland since I originally wrote this post.

About Time

Since the signing of Melky Cabrera and the naming of John Gibbons manager, there hasn't been much to talk about in Blue Jay Land.

The Jays made some small moves, outrighting a couple of players to Vegas, and putting Mike McDade on waivers (where he was claimed by the Indians).  The Jays also added a couple of minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to protect them in the Rule V draft.  The most noteworthy was AA catcher A.J. Jiminez who missed most of last season after Tommy John surgery.  They Jays also chose to non-tender Bobby Wilson, and claimed Eli Whiteside off waivers from the Yankees.

Oh, and word came down today that the Miami Marlins have traded Yunel Escobar to Tampa Bay.  Looks like we'll be seeing him a fair bit as he returns to the AL East.

The Winter Meetings have also been quiet, with Alex Anthopoulos himself saying that there haven't been any significant trade talks, and there isn't likely to be a play for a significant free agent.

There has been a buzz around Hall of Fame talk as the ballot for 2013 induction was released and it includes a lot of big names that have been associated with Performance Enhancing Drugs like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, etc.

But the best recent news is that after many years of campaigning, Tom Cheek has been awarded the 2013 Ford C. Frick Award and will be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

For anyone that grew up in Toronto, Cheek's voice was the voice of summer.  Before the days when all the games were televised (on whatever channel Rogers is trying to force people to subscribe to), they were all available on the radio and baseball has always been synonymous with radio.  The game's pace lends itself to that particular medium as the announcer isn't trying to describe 16 simultaneous events like they would in a basketball or hockey game.  When I wasn't playing ball myself, I would be listening to the Blue Jays in the great years of Moseby, Bell, and Barfield, with Dave Stieb on the mound and Tony Fernandez at short.

Tom Cheek (along with Jerry Howarth) was the voice of those Blue Jays teams and I when I think of the Jays on the radio, I think of Tom's voice and the way that it just seemed to BE baseball.  Listening to the Toronto radio stations replay some of his calls today brings back a lot of memories of what baseball on the radio can be to a kid who loves the sport.

So, after a career in which he called 4306 consecutive baseball games (starting with the Blue Jays first ever game in 1977), a career and life cut short by cancer, hearty congratulations are in order for Tom Cheek and his family.  I'm sure that wherever he is, he'll touch 'em all.

Prospects! Part 3: New Hampshire Fisher Cats - Pitching

Until the end of 2012, New Hampshire was where the Blue Jays were stashing several of their more advanced pitching prospects in preparation for a jump to the big leagues.  With the Jays reaching an agreement with the Buffalo Bisons for 2013 and beyond, this will no longer be the case.  However, you can bet that New Hampshire will be the place that the Jays premiere pitching spends time in 2013 and 2014 on their way to the big leagues.   On the pitching side, there were several top prospects who plied their trades in New Hampshire this season.

Disappointments: Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins

Just getting a taste: Marcus Stroman, Sean Nolin

Surprise: Sam Dyson

On the fence: John Stilson

Photo: Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com

The biggest disappointment on the Fisher Cats in 2012 would have to be Deck McGuire (current MLB.com ranking* - #12).  McGuire is a college righty who doesn't throw particularly hard (peaking around 92mph).  He was thought to be one of the more advanced pitchers available when he was selected in the first round of the 2010 draft (11th overall).  While McGuire had an excellent 2011 that produced a lot of optimism (3.02 ERA between Dunedin and New Hampshire - 2.75 K/BB ratio, .232 OPP BA), he struggled mightily in 2012.  In 28 starts and 144 innings, he posted a 5.88 ERA, striking out only 15.1% of hitters, while walking 9.8%.  Working mostly out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League (a notorious hitter's league), he did a little better, striking out 20.4% but walking 13.0% (in only 13 2/3 innings).  The scariest thing about what has happened to McGuire is that his strikeouts are way down, while his walks are up.  Since he doesn't have overpowering stuff to begin with, this is obviously a concern that he won't be able to get batters out at higher levels in the minors.  He is still only 23 and I'll draw another comparison to a Blue Jays pitcher without overpowering stuff who struggled in the minors - Ricky Romero.  In AA in 2008, Romero posted worse K/9, BB/9, and WHIP than McGuire did in 2012.  I think there's still hope for him, but he'll have to figure out a few things quickly.  McGuire will, in all likelihood, return to AA in 2013, unless the Jays want to challenge him, in which case, he'll be in Buffalo.

Photo: Kevin Littlefield/NH Fisher Cats

Chad Jenkins received a callup to the majors and pitched respectably out of the pen for the Blue Jays (and made three starts) picking up 32 major league innings to go along with 114.1 minor league ones.  Jenkins will be 25 in December, so this will be a make-it-or-break-it time for him.  I won't say that he particularly earned his call-up to the majors, primarily because he didn't pitch all that well in AA.  An argument was made that because Jenkins is primarily a ground ball pitcher (getting 1.24 Ground outs to Air outs in AA in 2012), he would benefit from better major league defense behind him and actually do better in the majors.  This didn't prove to be the case, as his GO/AO ratio was 0.94 for the Jays.  Jenkins is another pitcher without overpowering stuff (supported by his very low K% numbers - 11.2% in AA, 11.8% in MLB) and, like McGuire, his strikeout numbers were way down from his pace in 2011.  Unless the Jays suffer another rash of injuries, I would expect Jenkins to pitch 2013 in Buffalo.  If there's no bounce back in his strikeout percentage, I would say he has hit his ceiling.  Unless his offspeed pitches develop (his fastball is unremakable, averaging 90.9 mph for the Jays in 2012) to become swing-and-miss material, I don't see Jenkins being able to sustain success as a starter, and if anything, he could be just another bullpen guy.

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Marcus Stroman (current MLB.com ranking - #10) was selected by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2012 draft (22 overall) and quickly signed and began his professional career in Vancouver.  After a couple of rough outings, he dominated the Short Season A opponents and was promoted to AA.  There he continued to pitch well before testing positive for Methylhexaneamine on Aug. 28, 2012 and receiving a 50 game suspension.  The organization doesn't believe this to be a large problem due to its most likely coming from a nutritional supplement that Stroman didn't know was banned.  Stroman will probably begin 2013 (after he returns from his suspension in May) in AA, but look for him to be promoted quickly.  The organization hasn't let on whether they will have him start or relieve in 2013.  Many scouts think that his size (only 5'9") and effort-laden delivery won't support him being a starter in the long term.  Comparisons have been made to Tim Lincecum of the Giants who apparently broke down this year.  Scouts and analysts think that Stroman can be in the majors in 2013 coming out of the bullpen with a good fastball and an excellent (and highly developed) slider.  Many were predicting that he'd be wearing a Blue Jays uniform in September of 2012 until his positive drug test.

Photo: MiLB.com

Sean Nolin (current MLB.com ranking - #19) has been climbing the ladder and impressing at every level.  He hasn't drawn as much attention as the Lansing 3, but as Mark Hulet of Fangraphs says, he was one of the big surprises of 2012.  I'm not so sure why Hulet was suprised; Nolin had an outstanding 2011 in Lansing and has simply built on those successes this year mostly in Dunedin.  Nolin has better stuff than either McGuire or Jenkins and seemingly (by looking at his walk and strikeout numbers) has learned to use his pitches pretty well.  With continued good peripheral numbers in the minors, Nolin will probably at least find a major league job in the bullpen as a lefty.  His upside, could be as high as a Ricky Romero type starter, with a slightly better fastball (although his changeup is probably not as good).  Nolin will most likely start 2012 in AA and get at least two months of work there before moving up.

Photo: AP Photo

Sam Dyson was a dark horse last season who sprung up and had a great year in New Hampshire (even getting a cup of coffee in the majors).  He went to the Arizona Fall League and was named an all-star (although he didn't pitch in the game due to his innings limit being reached).  He began the season starting in Dunedin, but really came into his own as a reliever in AA.  His peripheral numbers, however indicate that more seasoning is going to be required, due to his low strikeout numbers (although walks are under control at this point).  His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was much higher than his ERA at New Hampshire (ERA - 2.38, FIP - 4.06), which indicates that he may have troubles in the future.  His scouting report says that he has a good fastball (low-mid 90s) that sinks and gets a lot of ground balls, but his breaking pitches are well behind the fastball in development. 

John Stilson (current MLB.com ranking - #16) fell in the 2011 draft due to a shoulder injury.  The Jays snapped him up in the 3rd round and he made his professional debut in 2012.  He was strong in Dunedin, and earned a promotion to AA where he showed signs of struggling despite maintaining a good strikeout rate (5.04 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 19.6% K, 10.2% BB).  Scouts love his stuff, but durability issues may lead to Stilson's future being as a reliever.  Stilson won't turn 23 until July of 2013, so he'll have plenty of time to work his way up from AA, but look for him to try to develop his breaking stuff to go with his good heat, and probably work out of the bullpen next season. 

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* This is from MLB.com's current ranking of the player on their top 20 list of Blue Jays prospects, compiled by Jonathan Mayo. 

Blogging about the Manager

Alex Anthopoulos pulled another rabbit out of his hat with the (re)signing of John Gibbons to manage the 2013 Blue Jays.  This came as a surprise to just about everyone, except for Toronto Sun columnist Bob Elliott, who only wrote about this possibility yesterday.  Gibbons, in his opening remarks, even said how out of the blue this was.  He said that he was following the managerial search and that the media "were way off!" but did single out Elliott for getting it right.

How do I feel, as a humble blogger, about this piece of news?  Fine.  I always liked Gibby and his down-home folksy charm.  Word is that the players (with a couple of notable exceptions) loved to play for him and AA has commented that he loves Gibby's bullpen management.  Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590 on the Twitter) has also commented that he really uses platoons well, so we probably won't see much of an Adam Lind-type doing much hitting against left-handed pitching.

Many more people have brought up Gibby's incidents with Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly (you can read about it at many other blogs), but Alex Anthopoulos says that there's not much of a concern there, and Gibby himself said that he felt like he learned from the incidents.  For me, it's a non-starter: at least he seems to care.

Personally, I don't think the manager has a heck of a lot of influence on the game and Gibbons said that he feels that his role is to get the most out of the players.  That's a really refreshing thing to hear from a manager who doesn't over-inflate his self importance.

Bringing Gibbons back also gives us a super fun drinking game to play when watching Blue Jays games and listening to post-game interviews.  We can take bets on the over/under of "I'll tell you what"s that Gibbons and commentator Buck Martinez throw out there in the course of a day, or just simply drink when we hear one.

It's gonna be a fun year, I'll tell you what.

Requisite Melky Cabrera Blog Post

Alex Anthopoulos has shown that he is definitely not finished in his quest to turn the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays into a World Series contender.  He has set about transforming this team, adding depth, pitching and star-power over this off-season that is not even a month old yet. 

His latest move was to sign free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera to a 2-year, $16 million contract (Anthopoulos's biggest free agent contract in his tenure as a GM) which sent another shockwave through the baseball world.  If you've been living under a rock for the past year, it will be news to you that Cabrera, 2/3 of the way through an outstanding career year in which he was leading the NL batting race, was suspended for 50 games for elevated testosterone levels.  He then tried to cover it up by creating a fake nutritional supplement and a fake website that did not explain any potential effects of the product.  Baseball was too smart for Melky and (unlike Ryan Braun in 2011), his suspension stood up.  The World Series champions Giants did not even add Cabrera to their playoff roster despite his being eligible. 

I don't think I can say much that other bloggers and writers haven't already.  Most, like me, are all for this move.  Cabrera's last two seasons were very, very good, and even if his numbers regress (which they almost surely will), still provides a much better option in left field than either of the home grown options in Gose* or Sierra or ex-Marlin Emilio Bonifacio (whom Mike Wilner has taken to calling "Boneface"). 

Here's the other reason why I like this deal so much.  By current MLB standards, $8 million a year in a 2 year guaranteed contract is a bargain for an outfielder who can provide what even a regressed Melky Cabrera can.  AND (here comes the best part) . . . he comes aboard practically free of charge.  That's right.  The Blue Jays are (reportedly) getting exactly $8 million dollars from the Miami Marlins as part of their mammoth trade.  So the Jays have reinvested the cash coming over from Miami to further upgrading the team instead of putting into the gigantic pocket that is Rogers communications.**

You might ask, "how can Cabrera be practically free?   That only covers the first year of the 2 year deal."  Simple.  MLB reached a new national TV deal that will kick in in 2014 that pays each team $25 million more than they're getting now.  This means that when the contracts of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle rise from the low $10-million range to the $20-ish million range in 2014 and beyond, the money will be there to cover it.  And one more year of Melky Cabrera at $8 million.

Finally, what this deal does is buy the Jays some time.  They are not rushed into pressing Anthony Gose into a regular major league role which gives him another year to develop in the safety of the minor leagues.  Secondly, it gives them another year to figure out what they have in Colby Rasmus.  If, by 2014, the team thinks that Gose can give them more than Rasmus, then Anthopoulos can try to find a taker for Rasmus and bring something else useful back.  If Rasmus finds his 2010 self again, and Gose fails to develop as hoped, then Rasmus can remain with the team.  If both players blossom, then AA has a fantastic problem on his hands with 2 valuable center fielders.  And if both players regress, then at least Gose will be in the minors in 2013 and Rasmus will be able to be hidden in a much more potent lineup than the team had last year. 

If Cabrera is a bust, the Jays really aren't hurt by this deal.  If he contributes, then AA has just made another deal to strengthen the team.

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* Yes, I know that Gose wasn't drafted by the Blue Jays and can't really be considered "home grown."

** Jeffrey Loria would have said "$8 million?  Now I can buy that Italian estate I've had my eye on."

Prospects! Part 2: Las Vegas 51s

Almost there: C Travis d'Arnaud, CF Anthony Gose

Borderliners: 1B David Cooper, OF Moises Sierra

Under the Radar: 1B Mike McDade

Gone, Baby, Gone: SS Adeiny Hechevarria

Summary: Yes, there are no pitchers even to be discussed among the top prospects that played for the 51s last season.* Vegas = death to pitchers and the Jays kept anyone even close to a prospect away last season, preferring to promote to the big club rather than send them to Vegas.  Fortunately, that situation will be rectified in 2013 as the Jays' affiliations have changed to a much more convenient home in Buffalo.  Frankly, the best numbers that were posted by Las Vegas 51s in 2012 were by guys who spent significant portions of their season in the major leagues.  Top OPSs: Adam Lind (1.112), Travis Snider (1.021), Travis d'Arnaud (.975), Yan Gomes (.938), Eric Thames (.935), and David Cooper (.935).  The next player on the list with more than 200 ABs in Vegas?  Moises Sierra.  So basically, anyone who performed will in Vegas was either major leaguer/Quad-A Player (31-year-old minor league veteran Ricardo Nanita was also close to that leader board) or a top prospect.  Gose and Hechevarria weren't among the sluggers in Vegas, but did post respectable numbers, that, again, tell us very little and it's much more useful to look at their performances in their extended major league call ups last season.

Photo credit: Unknown

Travis d'Arnaud (by all measures, the Jays' top prospect in 2012**) was pulling a J.P. Arencibia by posting league MVP type numbers in the first half of the season before suffering a knee injury in June.  D'Arnaud was hitting .333 with 16 HRs and an OPS of .975.  We saw a precipitous drop in batting average from Arencibia when he made the jump to the majors, so it's very difficult to predict what may happen with d'Arnaud.  However, most scouts feels that d'Arnaud has the potential to hit for a better average than Arencibia (perhaps without quite as much power) and is a better defensive catcher.  This off-season will definitely be interesting for the Jays' catchers.  Bloggers have suggested that the Jays could trade one of d'Arnaud or Arencibia as part of a deal to add quality starting pitching this off-season (particularly with John Buck coming to the Jays in The Trade).  Frankly, I'm excited to see what d'Arnaud can do at a major league level, but he may end up getting dealt, mainly because he has more value than Arencibia. 

Photo credit: Unknown

A subject of a good chunk of one of my previous posts, Anthony Gose*** also showed significantly inflated numbers in Vegas.  In AAA, he hit .286/.366/.419 with 21 2B, 10 3B, 5 HR, 34 SB and 101 strikeouts in 420 at bats.  What is interesting is that both Gose more-or-less maintained the spacing between his batting average and on-base percentage when he made the jump to the majors.  Gose's job should be to get on base, and he was able to do so in AAA at a very good rate.  Gose is considered to be ready for the majors defensively.  He has outstanding range, great instincts and an arm that is way beyond what a centerfielder is even hoped to have.  He may return to AAA in 2013, this time playing in a more challenging hitting environment in Buffalo before returning to Toronto, most likely at some point next season.

Photo: Steve Spatafore

David Cooper is a player that really isn't considered a prospect anymore, but has done nothing but hit at every level in the minors and even showed some maturity and pop in the majors last season as a replacement for Adam Lind.  Cooper really has nothing left to prove in AAA, hitting .314/.395/.540 in 2012.   Last season, he returned to the majors as a much more patient and confident hitter, hitting .300 in 140 ABs with 15 extra-base hits.  The only concern with Cooper is the fact that he only took 4 walks in the majors and struck out 22 times, whereas, he actually walked more than he struck out in AAA (37 BB, 34 K).  If Cooper can show the plate discipline that he's shown throughout his minor league career, he could be a very productive major league player (assuming his 2012 stats were not aberrant ).  The big question with Cooper is that scouts don't think that he can hit for enough power as a first baseman to be truly valuable at the big league level, and the Blue Jays just don't have anywhere to put him, with Adam Lind and his (most likely) immovable contract in front of him as a left-handed hitting first baseman and Edwin Encarnacion breaking out in 2012 and with the organization toying with thoughts of having Travis d'Arnaud play first base if J.P. Arencibia is still around.  Cooper is pretty much the odd man out.

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Moises Sierra earned some playing time in Toronto for the injured Jose Bautista after the trades of Travis Snider and Eric Thames.  In 2012, his first AAA season, the 24 year old put up very respectable numbers, but not as PCL-inflated as you might have thought coming off the strong AA season he had last year.  The knock against Sierra is that he's a free-swinger, which showed up in his big league debut.  Sierra struck out in 28% of his plate appearances, well above the league average, and put together an OPS of only .648.  Basically, while Sierra was succeeding in AAA (.289/.360/.472), he had a rough first-exposure to ML pitching in his 147 ABs with the Jays.  The big question with Sierra is whether he's hit his ceiling or not.  He is known to be pretty good defensively and has a cannon of an arm, so he can be useful as a defensive replacement off the bench for a major league team.  He will, in all likelihood, start 2013 in Buffalo and work on his offensive game.

Photo: Dave Schofield

23 year old Mike McDade's biggest problem is that he plays 1B.  On the Jays' depth charts, he's behind Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Travis d'Arnaud, and David Cooper.  But McDade is a hitter who has been hitting for average and power since 2009 in A ball.  He has also started to address his issues with striking out too much, and not walking enough (taking more walks in 100 fewer at bats in AA in 2012 than in 2011, but strikeout numbers were still high).  While he needs some maturing, the organization will have issues as to where to put him.  If David Cooper returns to AAA in 2013, then the Jays will have McDade and Cooper splitting time at 1B while the other most likely DHs.  McDade already repeated AA for most of 2012 because of the logjam at his position and has nothing left to prove there as is evidenced by his all-star selections in 2011 and 2012.

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* The only pitcher that could even be considered a prospect is Chad Beck who struggled mightily in his time with the big club and was claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates when the Jays tried to pass him through waivers. 

 

**I will normally include rankings  from MLB.com's top 20 list of Blue Jays prospects, compiled by Jonathan Mayo.  There are many other such measures - Baseball America, Fangraphs, John Sickels's Minor League Ball rankings are but three examples.

*** By many measures, Gose is no longer considered a prospect due to his accumulation of too many major league at-bats in 2012.  He exceeded the limit to be considered for rookie eligibility by about 30 at-bats.

My Blue Jays Cap goes to ... Amsterdam

So I took a weekend trip to Amsterdam last week and, of course, brought my Blue Jays cap with me.  I snapped a few photos of the cap enjoying the sights (no, there is no photo of my Blue Jays cap smoking a joint).

Rijksmuseum

A canal

Church

Prospects! Part 1: Introduction

Since I've already summed up the Jays' regular season and with Fangraphs starting to compile their top 15 prospects lists, I thought I would go through the Blue Jays system and talk about some of the young players on their way up through the minors.  Most sites do a top 10, 15, or 20 ranking of the Jays' (or whatever team's) prospects with analysis of the players.  Many of these writers are able to see some of these players in person but since I've been away, I have not had any opportunity to make the road (or other kinds of) trips necessary to see these guys live. 

I do consider myself very plugged in to what's going on with the Jays' minor league teams and what's being written about in the blogosphere, but I can only base my musings on what I've gathered from other writers and from examining their readily available stats and scouting reports.  I hope to be able to be able to find some sort of new insight into some of the youngsters in the Jays system, but anything I hope to add will purely be speculative and subjective.  I haven't seen anything of these players live (although if I'm in Toronto during the baseball season, I'll most certainly try to get down to games in Buffalo, New Hampshire, and Lansing) so I may be completely wrong in many respects.  I have players that I've certainly been following, primarily throughout 2012, and I'll try to highlight those players throughout this series.

To try to organize things a little differently than other blogs, I'll recap prospects from each team in the Blue Jays farm system that are either highly touted or at least interesting and I'll also put together my own list of top prospects at the end of this series.  

When considering teams, I'll include players who finish the season there (with a couple of exceptions).  The Jays have a tendency to promote players who are doing well at a level to the next level towards the end of the year to give them a taste of the higher level.  Usually, players who receive these kinds of promotions (e.g., Mike McDade, Jake Marisnick, Sean Nolin) will begin the following year at level at which they ended the season.

Toronto's minor league affiliates (2012):

AAA - Las Vegas 51s (Pacific Coast League)
AA - New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Eastern League)
A+ - Dunedin Blue Jays (Florida State League)
A - Lansing Lugnuts (Midwest League)
Short Season A - Vancouver Canadians (Northwest League)
Rookie + - Bluefield Blue Jays (Appalachian League)
Rookie - Dunedin Blue Jays (Gulf Coast League)

In my next post, I'll begin with the AAA 51s and proceed to the lower levels as I go.

Holy Shnikies

Lying in bed in Berlin around 11:30pm or midnight, I noticed that activity on Twitter had picked up (@jaysfromaway).  Instead of the usual 1 new tweet per 5 minutes, there were 6 new tweets in 1 minute.  That was my first inclination that something big was going down.

The first reports (and they were reports from very solid Major League reporters like Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal) said that starting pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were coming to Toronto.  Then SS Jose Reyes's name got thrown around.  Who was going back?  At first it was just SS Yunel Escobar and SS Adeiny Hechavarria, but clearly there would have to be more . . . that's not enough for 2 starting pitchers and an all-star shortstop!  The deal got bigger:  Henderson Alvarez, Jake Marisnick, John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, Anthony DeSclafani, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino were all mentioned.

And so, after much digital ink was spilled the fog cleared, the final trade appeared to be:

Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafani, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino

for

Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, and $4 million.

A 12-player deal that rocked the baseball world.  While this trade still isn't official (any trade involving cash must be approved by the commissioner's office and is contingent on players passing physicals), it's getting a lot of press and scrutiny.  I'm not going to look too closely at the baseball side of this trade just yet, it's still early, but several revelations come out of this about the Blue Jays and the Marlins that I'll add my perspective to the digital reams that are being devoted to last night's events.

Revelation #1: Starting Pitching is expensive.

Ok. This isn't a revelation, but it's a fact of doing business in the major leagues.  While the Blue Jays instantly strengthen their pitching staff, the cost was significant.  The young talent going to Miami is already good, with the potential to be great.  I'm pretty convinced that Henderson Alvarez will find a way to strike batters out enough at the major league level to be a solid #4 starter or better.  I'm pretty convinced that Hechavarria will be able to hit enough to provide some value as a starting shortstop.  As far as the minor league talent goes, Marisnick has tons of upside on his tools and is still young and Nicolino is already very well developed despite his ceiling being the lowest of the Lansing 3.  I have a feeling that the Marlins won't be as cautious as the Jays have been with either him or DeSclafani.  Look for them to start 2013 in AA.

Additionally, the Blue Jays will be paying for this trade for many years with 5 years left on Reyes's contract and 3 on Buehrle's, each rising into the $20 million range by the end (Johnson's expires this year).  On the other side, if the Jays had signed any of the top- or second-tier free agent starters this off-season (like Anibal Sanchez) , they would most likely be locked into 5 or 6 year contracts, paying $15 million per year (rumour has it that Sanchez is asking for 6 years and $90 million).  Giving a pitcher in his late 20's or early 30's a contract that long is something that the Jays (or any team) don't want to do.  As we've seen this year, pitchers are fragile.

This trade is a risk, particularly in the sense that Johnson, Reyes, and Bonifacio have had injury issues and should something happen to any of the real high price players, the Jays are on the hook with injured or ageing players who are eating up salary.  Buehrle has been durable, but is getting older, and probably won't be providing excellent value on the $18 and $19 million he's owed in 2014 and 2015.   

Revelation #2: Jeffrey Loria is an ass.

Writers from all over the baseball world are noticing how this is a gigantic salary dump from an underperforming team.  As is Loria's M.O., the team makes a splash, appears to be being aggressive, and then tears everything apart quickly.  Look at the Marlins' World Series year.  They won it all, then dismantled the team to get young and cheap (and bad).  Loria is alienating his fans, and, his players.  Several Marlins, including the face of the franchise, Giancarlo Stanton, tweeted their shock and anger yesterday.  Stanton's (@giancarlo818) tweet was memorable: Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple.

I'm sure Stanton will be out of Miami as soon as he becomes a free agent (or sooner).  If the firesale continues, he won't be signing any team-friendly contract extensions before he is eligible for arbitration after this coming season.

Oh yeah. Loria's the pied piper who led the Expos out of Montreal, left the league holding the reins, and then bought another team in Florida.  To quote the great Joe Flaherty: "Jackass!"

Revelation #3: Alex Anthopoulos probably isn't finished yet.

The team has 4 catchers on the 40 man roster.  While Bobby Wilson is certainly a backup, I can't see both Buck and Arencibia playing every day or even having a 50/50 split of the starting duties.  Is John Buck going to be a $6 million backup catcher who didn't hit much in the last 2 years?  Since his career year in Toronto in 2010, Buck hasn't exceeded a .700 OPS and has hit under .230 both years.  People complain about Arencibia's low batting average and OBP, but at least he can hit for power, has improved his defense, and is providing better value over the past 2 seasons at a better price.  Because the Jays are now no longer in "wait for the youngsters develop" mode, they're going to be less inclined to allow d'Arnaud to grow into the role at the major league level; therefore, I see one of 4 scenarios.

1: Buck is the backup this year and the Jays eat the $6 million they owe him while JPA plays every day.* D'arnaud cools his heels in Buffalo for another year of development (and keeping his ML service time clock from starting), and Bobby Wilson is lost on waivers at the end of Spring Training.  If JPA is traded at any point after the start of the season, scenario 2 comes into effect.

2: JPA is traded at some point this off-season and d'Arnaud is called up and is given the opportunity to start. In this scenario, Wilson will probably be kept on the 25 man roster in case d'Arnaud can't produce in the majors.  D'Arnaud probably gets some playing time at 1B/DH until the Jays are confident that he's their big league starting catcher.

3: Buck is traded or given his outright release.   There's a battle for the starting catcher's position between JPA and d'Arnaud, with d'Arnaud also getting some time at 1B/DH.

4: Buck regains his batting stroke of 2010, JPA is traded, Wilson backs up, and d'Arnaud spends the year in  AAA and takes over the starting role in 2014.

This team still has holes.  There are a few questions that arise from this enormous trade.


The starting rotation, instead of being 2 quality starters deep last year (with question marks for the #3,#4,#5 roles), is now 3 quality starters deep.  We still don't know how Ricky Romero is going to rebound in 2013, and J.A. Happ, while ok as a 5th starter, might need to be improved upon should the Jays want to really make a playoff push in 2013.  Do the Jays delve into the free agent pool for someone like Shawn Marcum?  Are the Jays willing to add another $10 million in payroll for a quality starter?  With the injuries last year, the only real viable candidate to compete with Happ in spring training is Chad Jenkins, who (in my humble opinion) will probably start 2013 in Buffalo.  Drabek is not due back until mid-summer and Hutchison probably won't see any action before September (if at all this season).

Do the Jays see Izturis as the every day 2nd baseman?  Or will they try to use Bonifacio in that role?  What about left field?  If the Jays want to contend this year, Gose is not the answer there, and neither is Moises Sierra.

There are still holes on this roster and there's lots of off-season left to address them.


Revalation #4: Blue Jays fans (and players) have something to be excited about again.

The blogosphere is going crazy with praise for Alex Anthopoulos and Rogers for opening the chequebook.  Anthopoulos is also lauded for his ability to operate under the radar and then explode with big news about acquiring the pitching help that everyone knew the team needed.  People were doubting his ninja-ness.  No longer.

Jose Bautista (@JoeyBats19) tweeted "It's a good day to be a bluejay!"  Ricky Romero and Casey Janssen both expressed more cautious optimism without either official confirmation or league approval.

*****

The fact is that the Jays made a really exciting move to address a huge area of weakness (starting pitching), and upgraded a position that was solid defensively, if under-producing in 2012 (shortstop).  They also get another versatile bench player and another catcher.  They gave up a potentially good starting pitcher (or great reliever) in Alvarez, a promising young shortstop with genuine concerns about his bat in Hechavarria, a head case of another shortstop in Escobar, a backup catcher, and three prospects who are at least 2 years away from contributing.

This was a "win now" move and really stabilizes the starting rotation until the prospects start to bubble up to the major league surface and the injured arms return to compete for jobs.**  It also allows the Jays to be more patient and not rush their pitching prospects along.

This is easily the single biggest trade in Blue Jays history and possibly in baseball history and could either usher in a new era in the Blue Jays being a playoff contender, or it could blow up in Alex Anthopoulos's face.  It's risky, it's exciting, it's why we're all baseball fans.

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*I'll go out on a limb and predict a .245/.295/.465 slash line with 25 home runs for Arencibia, showing marginal improvements in his eye and contact abilities in his 3rd major league season.

**I argue that neither Drabek nor Hutchison have proven or earned anything yet.  Both will need to return from injury, head to the minors (first rehab, then probably a regular assignment to Buffalo) and earn their way back to the bigs.

Oh Maicer!

Quick hit, as I'm about to leave town and go computerless for the weekend.

Jays signed Maicer Izturis to a 3 year $3mil/year contract (with a team option on 4th year at $3mil).  Great stuff.  Happy to see it.  Costs us nothing but money (and, who are we kidding, we don't really care about the money other than how some theoretical spending limit factors into baseball decisions).  

I like this move. Maicer is better than Hech is right now and is more flexible (despite Hech's playing the same 3 positions that Maicer plays last season).  He's also got the ability to contribute playing every day if necessary, with several writers saying that he's the same age and has eerily similar stats to Marco Scutaro did when the Jays made him their every day shortstop.

They Jays also sent cash to KC for (what else) hard throwing righty Jeremy Jeffress.  As people have been joking about on twitter and in the blogosphere, Jeffress has had issues with marijuana as well as his control, which is why the Jays were able to obtain a potential 100mph thrower for so little.  

He may not be around long -- he's out of options, so he needs to make the team out of spring training, or he'll be exposed to waivers before he can be shipped to the minors.  Basically, if he can't show ability to harness his stuff (which people are saying is great), he may get snapped up as another team tries to take a flyer on the fireballer while the Jays try to sneak him through waivers to send him to Buffalo.

My Blue Jays Cap goes to Alexanderplatz

The weather here in Berlin has been pretty grey this past week, making for some unspectacular photo ops with the Cap.  Fortunately I took advantage of one of the nicer days to head down to Alexanderplatz.

My Jays cap at the Weltzeituhr, Alexanderplatz, Berlin

Alexanderplatz is the major city square that was part of East Berlin.  The East Germans decided to erect their Fernsehturm (literally, TV Tower) to make sure that they could broadcast their socialist message to their people, as well as the Westerners.  I've heard it referred to as the disco ball.

Also in the picture is what's called the "Weltzeituhr" (literally, "world time clock") which is basically a list of "hours" (the numbers), with a map and cities from the world.  Sadly, Toronto isn't on it (but Montreal is).

Since the reunification of Germany in 1990, Alexanderplatz has become the major transportation hub of the city.  It's a big tourist draw and hosts, in the vicinity, major hotels, department stores, a major shopping mall, movie theatres (unfortunately, for the English films with no subtitles you have to go to Potsdamer Platz) and several Christmas Markets (very popular in Germany and Protestant Europe) which should start popping up any day now.  Despite its popularity and centrality, major civic celebrations are not held there.  They're usually held at the Brandenburg Gate, which will be featured soon.

I'm off to Amsterdam for the weekend, so you might see the cap checking out some canals soon!

The 2012 Blue Jays, part III: Pitching

Note: This discussion uses the "Wins Above Replacement," or WAR, stat extensively.  Every statistical website that uses this (or something similar) has its own way of calculating it.  In the baseball blogosphere, Fangraphs WAR is abbreviated as fWAR and BaseballReference WAR is abbreviated as rWAR.  Those are the two primary calculations that I'll be using here.

Toronto's team pitching season went into the tank around the time that three of the five starters went on the DL with extended injuries (two requiring Tommy John surgery) within four days of each other (June 12-15).  These events triggered a chain reaction of injuries, premature promotions, waiver claims, and other transactional fun that involved the Jays carrying a thirteen man pitching staff for most of the season, and using THIRTY-FOUR pitchers to fill those twelve to thirteen ML roster spots throughout the season.*

Needless to say, with a staff being held together by enough duct tape to give Red Green a full-on woody, the Jays pitching was bad.  The Jays gave up the fourth most number of runs in the AL, the most home runs, the most walks, had the fourth fewest strikeouts, and had the third worst WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched).  

Clearly, depth was a problem.  Major league teams just do not have thirty-three major league calibre pitchers (plus Jeff Mathis) available to step in when injuries decimate a staff.  In fact, this is the perfect scenario in which to discuss the concept of "Wins above Replacement" (WAR). 

For 2012, the "Wins above Replacement" (WAR) statistic is an important one to look at.  According to Baseball Reference, the Jays pitchers contributed just 5 wins above replacement (rWAR) good for fifth worst in the league, while Fangraphs pegged their pitching fWAR at 7.6 -- 2nd worst in the league.  When we talk about some of the individual players, it is important to understand that this stat is cumulative.  Players who play more will have more opportunity to contribute to the team winning and thus will be able to accumulate a higher WAR.  Additionally, if a player is REALLY bad, but still plays a lot, he has the opportunity to accumulate negative WAR. 

Of the Jays' starters, Brandon Morrow led the way with 2.4 fWAR in only 124.1 innings pitched.  Had he been able to throw 200 innings last season, Morrow could have single-handedly contributed almost 4 wins to the Blue Jays season above a replacement level player.  To compare, both Henderson Alvarez and Ricky Romero, the team's leaders in innings pitched, only contributed 0.5 fWAR each.   Over at Baseball Reference, they calculate the numbers a little differently for their version (rWAR) and in that calculation, Morrow compiled a 3.2 while Alvarez had a 0.1 figure, and Romero detracted from the team with a -1.7 rWAR.  Basically, the two pitchers who had the opportunity to log the most innings contributed a grand total of either 1 win above what replacement level players could contribute, or -1.6 wins (depending on which calculation you want to use).  Even before getting injured, Kyle Drabek was not contributing much to the success of the team (-0.1 fWAR, 0.0 rWAR).  

When I rank the Blue Jays top 6 pitchers in terms of fWAR in 2012, only one (Brandon Morrow) made more than 6 starts.**  Pitchers ranked 7-10 in fWAR were all starters with their contributions ranging from 0.5 to 0.6 fWAR. 

In an ideal world, a team's five starters would contribute about 1000 innings of work.  Last season, the Jays pitchers threw 1443 2/3 innings, meaning that, again ideally, the starters will be in the game a little over 2/3 of the time.  So basically, most of the contributions that the Blue Jays were getting from their starting pitching in 2012 was barely above what could be expected from "replacement players," who (until the bullpen was stabilized through trades) comprised much of the 2012 pitching staff.The lack of production that the Blue Jays got from the pitchers who have the most control of the team's overall success was a gigantic ouchie for the Blue Jays chances to succeed in 2012.

Now, let's turn to some of those "replacement" players. What are "replacement players?"  These players are basically theoretical players who would make the major league minimum and who are only in the majors due to injuries or failure of the big-leaguers to perform.  Among these kinds of players are what some people call AAAA (or 4A) players -- those who dominate at the AAA level, but for some reason, can't perform in the majors.   

Using Baseball Reference's figures, 18 of the 34 pitchers that the Blue Jays used contributed either no rWAR or contributed negatively.  According to Fangraphs, that number is 20.  To be fair, many of these pitchers, like David Pauley, Ryota Igarashi, Sam Dyson, and Jeff Mathis, only threw a few innings for the Jays.  If we consider pitchers who threw more than 20 innings for the Jays in 2012, we're left with 7 pitchers who contributed negative numbers in both fWAR and rWAR (although there are slight differences in who these pitchers were and how much they contributed).  So, by either measure, 7 pitchers who pitched more than 20 innings were worse than the proverbial "Replacement Player."  In addition, several pitchers who racked up much larger innings totals contributed very little to the team's success (according to this measure of overall value).  

Some of these "replacement players" filled in admirably (or as well as could be expected) like Aaron Laffey eating up just over 100 innings without being too bad (0.2 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR), while others just couldn't get major leaguers out, like Joel Carreno (-0.5 fWAR, -0.2 rWAR in only 22 innings).  But the main reason that the Blue Jays had to use thirty-four pitchers in 2012 was that they  had too few "replacement level" pitchers available to step in.  Oh, and the until his trade on July 20th, Francisco Cordero was just horrible. 

While many replacement level players will come from teams' AAA affiliates, several of the pitchers who joined the bullpen parade for the Jays also came from AA.  As many other bloggers have written, with the AAA affiliate in Las Vegas (a notoriously horrendous place to pitch), the Blue Jays stashed most of their prime pitching prospects in the much more forgiving environment in Manchester, NH.***  However, it became clear that these pitchers were just not ready for the major leagues, all except for Aaron Loup who, with an excellent rookie season (5th on the team in fWAR, 6th in rWAR), stands a great chance of being the main lefty specialist in the bullpen in 2013. 

While some of these AA pitchers were successful, or at least able to put up replacement-level numbers, they were put in a difficult situation due to injury/depth issues as well as the very strange situation that the Jays were in -- having their pitching prospects avoid AAA like the plague.  Therefore, the Vegas pitching staff was filled with organizational guys (who the team thinks will never significantly contribute at the major league level), major/minor league retreads signed as minor league free agents, or claimed off of waivers from other organizations (although this will change in 2013).

What does this tell us?   Alex Anthopoulos had a really difficult job last year.  It's extremely hard to pick up freely available players who can positively contribute.  The ones that the Jays managed to find mid-way through the year in 2012 were the ones that required them to give something up.  Steve Delabar, Brandon Lyon,  and J.A. Happ all came to the Jays in trades and contributed greatly to stabilizing the bullpen in the second half of the season, but were not cheap.  Delabar cost the Jays Eric Thames while Lyon and Happ came to the Jays in a trade that sent a whole pile of prospects to Houston.  Brad Lincoln came to the Jays (from Pittsburgh in exchange for Travis Snider) and didn't pitch particularly well.  The only other mid-season addition that turned out to be a big-time contributor was Aaron Loup, showing that it is possible to make the jump from AA to the majors, but it's easier when you're being used as a left-handed specialist coming out of the bullpen.  Almost all of the pitchers that the Jays picked up on waivers or in deals that they did not need to give up much of anything proved to be ineffective in the major leagues.

If the Jays want to be able to cope with inevitable injuries and still succeed against a tough AL East division, the players stocked in the minor leagues will need to be able to contribute more than what a "replacement player" would, and the starting pitchers who are expected to be major league regulars need to step up and make their innings count for more. Which means that Alex Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him this off-season.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

*Ok.  Thirty-three if we don't count backup catcher Jeff Mathis, who threw 2 innings in 2012.

** J.A. Happ (who made 6 starts) had a 1.1 fWAR for the Jays in his 40.1 innings but only a 0.2 rWAR.

*** Indicative of this, of course, is when the Jays demoted Brett Cecil.  They asked him if he'd like to be sent to Vegas or New Hampshire, and he chose New Hampshire, despite it being a lower level.

Who is Esmil "Ted" Rogers?

Today, word came down that the Blue Jays have sent newly acquired infielder Mike Aviles and Brazilian utility man Yan Gomes to Cleveland for (what else) a Dominican born,2 7 year old relief pitcher - Esmil Rogers.

Photo: Jack Dempsey/AP Photo

Rogers was originally signed by the Colorado Rockies as an infielder in 2003 and began his pro career in the Dominican Summer League in 2003.  He played three seasons in the DSL without much success with the bat.  In 2006, the Rockies converted him into a pitcher and put up some pretty awful numbers in the Advanced-Rookie Pioneer League.  He spent the next two seasons as a starter in the minors and fared much better.  In the South Atlantic (Low A) League, he made 18 starts in 2007 and posted very respectable numbers, including a 3.75 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and struck out 90 in 117.2 innings.  In 2008, Rogers was promoted to Modesto in the California league (Advanced A) where he built on the successes of the previous season.  He made 25 starts, amassing 143.2 innings, lowering his WHIP to 1.33, and striking out 116 batters.  In 2009, he split the season between Tulsa of the Texas League (AA) and Colorado Springs of the Pacific Coast League (AAA), and despite some ugly numbers in AAA, he made his major league debut starting the game on September 12, 2009 with 4 innings of 2 run ball. 

In 2010, Rogers split time between the Rockies and their AAA affiliate putting up numbers that may very well be altitude-inflated, and 2011 was more of the same, despite a stint on the disabled list for a lat muscle strain.  Rogers has only really found success at the major league level while pitching in Cleveland for the last half of 2012.  He posted far better numbers in his 53 innings in Cleveland than he ever did in Colorado. 

Rogers tends to keep the ball on the ground (a good thing for a pitcher in Colorado) and in 2012, his first full year as a reliever, was able to strike batters out at a rate of more than 1 per inning and 24% of all batters he faced.  In Colorado, walks had always been a problem for Rogers but he seemed to figure that issue out in Cleveland.  Whether that's an aberration or a permanent fix is unknown at this point, however, from a couple of the appearances that I watched (from September of this year), Rogers' control isn't pinpoint, and he will probably need to be more precise pitching in the AL East.  Interestingly, in 2012, right-handed batters hit better off of him (.817 OPS) than lefties (.676 OPS).

I watched a couple of Rogers's appearances (courtesy of my apparently still valid subscription to MLB.tv) and noted that Rogers is a hard throwing righty (averaging over 95) whose velocity seems to come very easily.  His delivery is quite the opposite of a "drop and drive"er like Casey Janssen.  He stands up tall, pitches without much of a wind up and seems to fall off towards first base a little bit (much like Kyle Drabek does when he's struggling) as he follows through.  I noticed a fastball that hit 96 without much apparent effort, a curveball in the low-mid-80s, and a slider in the high-80s.  I couldn't really tell how much movement his fastball had on it.  I noticed that Rogers was most effective when he kept the ball down (like every pitcher), particularly with his slider.  There were a couple of times that he left it up and hitters were all over it.  I liked what I saw out his curveball -- it had quite a sharp break to it and it looked like there wasn't really any difference in his release point or delivery when he threw it.  If he's coming out of the pen full time, there's no reason that his good heat and good curveball shouldn't suffice on their own. 

Daniel George at Jays Journal commented that he thinks that Rogers could take Carlos Villanueva's role as a long-man and spot starter should he sign elsewhere.  Rogers has started 22 games in the majors although the numbers aren't promising (caveat: all the starts were in Colorado). 

From what I saw and what the Cleveland numbers say, Rogers could be a very useful pitcher in the 2012 Toronto bullpen.  Or he could be part of another trade.  It's still early in the off-season.

The 2012 Blue Jays, part II: Offense

I want to take a look at the season that the Blue Jays had in 2012.  This edition of Blue Jays from Away will look at the  season that the team had with the bats and then look at something interesting that I came across while going over some stats.  

So.  As a team, the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays finished in 4th place in the AL East with a record of 73-89, 22 games behind the 1st place Yankees.

According to fWAR (Fangraphs' Wins Above Replacement statistic), the Blue Jays ranked 11th (out of 14) with 15.8 wins produced by the offense.  This is well below the league leading Angels offense which contributed 37.4 fWAR and not so far above the league worst Indians whose batters contributed 11.9 fWAR.  On the Baseball Reference side (rWAR), the batters contributed 17.8 wins (including their fielding values) which places them 7th in the AL.  When we take the fielding out of the equation for rWAR, the Blue Jays fare much worse, with 13.9 oWAR (offensive Wins Above Replacement) good for 13th in the league.

So the question comes up.  Why was the Blue Jays' offense so bad last year?  Well, when we look at the huge number of injury problems that plagued the team, I think it's kind of an unfair question to ask.  The team's best best hitter whose presence would negate at least one of the real glaring deficiencies (low OBP) spent much of the season on the DL (Jose Bautista).  With other regulars spending extended time on the DL, the Jays had a couple of months fielding a lineup of not-yet-ready-for-prime-time players (aka minor leaguers) and guys who severely underperformed their career averages and expectations (Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Colby Rasmus). 

We know the offense sucked last year.  But I'm going to try to develop a theory about exactly WHAT sucked, and how it could get better in 2013.  I must preface this discussion with a disclaimer:  I am not a mathematician.  The guys at Fangraphs and Beyond the Box Score are much more effective at this type of analysis, but I think I've noticed something that bears development perhaps by someone with more time and energy to track down more specific numbers than me. 

I've been looking at two things:  A) Some of the advanced stats and comparisons  between teams that sites like Fangraphs and Baseball Reference awesomely make available for general consumption, and B) the batted ball data that is also available. 

So, what did they do well (or at least well enough that it was considered above league average)?  Well, the Jays hit for power.  And they didn't hit into that many double plays (4th fewest in the AL with 109 - top was 156, bottom was 95).

What didn't they do well?  They Jays did not did not hit for average or get on base. They posted a .245 team batting average (10 points below the league average of .255), good for 11th in the AL, and they were the second worst team in the AL in OBP with a .309 percentage (league average = .320).  They slugged slightly below league average (.411) with a .407 SLG.  They struck out at above league average pace and walked slightly below it.  

One of things that intrigued me was that the Jays had quite a high Home Run percentage, going yard in 3.3% of all plate appearances (league average (LA)was 2.9%), as well as a high HR/FB percentage at 10% (league average = 8.7%).*  Interestingly, the Jays had a higher percentage of fly balls stay in the infield than any team other than Seattle (16% - LA=14%).  The Jays were close to league average in Ground ball - Fly ball ratio with 0.80 ground balls for every fly ball (LA = 0.82) but were well below the league average in Ground Outs to Air Outs (GO/AO) (which includes line-drives).  League average = 1.07; jays = 1.01.  So the Blue Jays didn't necessarily hit the ball on the ground less than other teams, but a GREATER PERCENTAGE OF THEIR OUTS came from air outs. We can also see that the Blue Jays' BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is well below the league average (Jays=.281; LA=.293).  It is a well known fact that balls hit in the air turn into outs more often than balls hit on the ground, but they go for extra base hits more often.

Can this chunk of statistical noise -- the Fly ball/Ground ball data -- tell us something about the Blue Jays' season?   The team with the highest ratio of GO/AO is the Minnesota Twins, the worst team in the AL (overall), but the #5 offense according to both rWAR and fWAR.  The team with the second highest ratio of GO/AO is the LA Angels (of Anaheim) who by either measure of WAR was the best offense in the league (by far).  The team with the third highest ratio of GO/AO was the New York Yankees.  The Yankees ranked second in both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference versions of batter WAR.  While there may be an indirect correlation between GO/AO ratios and actual run production, there are too many other factors at play to actually connect the dots this simply.  On the other hand, if we look at all of this information, there may very well be a pattern.

So, at least last year, teams that got more ground outs than air outs tended to produce more offense.  The 2012 Blue Jays had several factors that contributed to a sluggish offense:

• They hit for a low batting average.  
• They didn't walk much.  
• They struck out a lot. 
• They hit fly balls as opposed to line drives (which translate better to hits/runs) at a much higher rate than the league average, to go along with a low number of ground balls. 

What does all of this information mean?   Well, first of all, strike outs are pretty bad.  When you strike out a lot, you're vastly limiting the number of at bats that your team has in which to do damage.  By not getting on base a lot (low BA, low walks), the Jays are limiting the options for getting those runners around the bases to score.  Fly balls are a little complicated.  Fly balls produce home runs, which are good, but are much less likely to be productive when they do not leave the park.  By getting a larger proportion of their outs via the air rather the ground, the Jays' limited the possibilities of runners advancing or scoring on these outs. 

  

Additionally, ground balls turn into hits more often than fly balls which would, in turn, contribute to the batting average and on base percentage.   And when fewer men get on base, there are fewer runners scoring on the home runs that the team hits.  According to Baseball Reference, the Jays placed towards the bottom of the league in "Productive Outs" in which runners advanced due to an out occuring.  Could this be related to the ratio of GO/AO?

Unfortunately, these numbers bring up more questions than they provide answers.  Is this tendency to hit fly balls a result of the coaching?  Is it a result of the players themselves?  Is the tenuous correlation between GO/AO perecentage and offensive performance in 2012 just a random occurrence? 

Because of the home run power that the Jays have shown (despite being Bautista-less for half the year), it is my opinion that if the Jays could solve the OBP issue and have a couple of players who hit more ground balls than fly balls, their offense could be among the best in the league. 

It is with this in mind that I submit the following: If the Jays can't find a better option for 2013, Anthony Gose should get the opportunity to play left field and develop at the big-league level.  While I wouldn't go so far as to suggest that he take over for Colby Rasmus in CF in 2013, I think Gose can bring everything mentioned above to the table, and with more development in Spring Training and experience at the big league level, I think he's not far off from being exactly what they need.

Photo: Seth Wenig/Associated Press

I was able to watch Gose a little bit last year (on MLB.tv) and, while I wasn't able to see him really drive the ball, I did see several occasions where he put the ball on the ground and got on base.  When I took a look at his numbers, I was actually surprised by a few things. 

1. His OBP was 80 points higher than his BA.  He took 17 walks in 189 plate appearance - a 9% rate, which was OVER the MLB average of 8%.  This shows a real improvement in plate discipline, despite Gose's well known problems with the strikeout (he struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances last season, with a ML average of 19.8%).  Since Gose is still young (22) and has made progress in several areas of his game throughout his minor league career, I believe that it is reasonable to assume that with experience he will improve his strikeout rate. He may never strike out at league average rates, but he can certainly do better than he has so far.  
2. Despite writers saying that he's not ready for the majors, Gose's OBP was .303 - only 17 points below league average and only 6 points below the team average. When Gose returned to the Jays in September after a demotion, he put up much better numbers.  In fact, in September/October, when he compiled slightly more Plate Appearances than in July/August (97 PAs in Sept/Oct, 92 in July/Aug), he walked almost twice as much, struck out 50% less, hit 80 points higher, got on base about 90 points higher, and slugged about 150 points higher.  This can also potentially indicate that with more experience, Gose will not only be a useful player, but a potentially very good one.
3. Gose hits a lot of ground balls.  His GO/AO ratio was 2.17 (the Jays team average was 1.01), meaning that he was put out from balls on the ground more than twice as much as he was from balls in the air.  I don't anticipate his GO/AO ratio remaining so high.  As he gains ML experience and understands the pitchers better, he will likely begin to drive the ball more.  But even if this stat regresses slightly, it will still enable him to get on base (and wreak havoc -- see #4) more often.  Oh yeah, remember that the league average BABIP was .293?  Gose's was .340.  In 2012, when he put the ball in play, he got on base way more often than the average major leaguer.  Probably due to the fact that he hit the ball on the ground (a la Willie Mays Hayes).
4. Gose is not only scary fast, but he's a very good base stealer.  He stole 15 bases in 189 plate appearances.  But what advanced stats have shown is that getting caught stealing is much more detrimental to a team than a successful stolen base is beneficial.  Stats Gurus say that to add to a team's chances of winning, a base stealer has to be successful at least 70-75% of the time.  Gose's percentage was 83% successful (including 75% success stealing 3rd). 

So while Gose's overall skill set, particularly his ability to drive the ball for extra bases at the major league level (he only had a .319 SLG) may not be completely developed yet, he presents himself as someone who can contribute something that the Jays were lacking last year, with plenty of upside.

Gose is very interesting when compared to Colby Rasmus.** 

Photo: Frank Gunn/AP Photo The Canadian Press

While both players hit .223 last season, Rasmus is an extreme fly ball hitter.  Gose had a 2.17 GO/AO ratio, while Rasmus had a 0.72 ratio (which, incidentally was higher than his career average of 0.66). Rasmus had 11.2% of his fly balls leave the park while Gose only had 2.7% (league average: 8.7%).  Rasmus slugged .400, while Gose only slugged .319.  Rasmus got on base for at a .289 clip while Gose got on base just over 30% of the time (.303 OBP).  

Unlike Gose, Rasmus has 4 years of ML stats to look at and the 2010 season that everyone raves about as being the Rasmus that the Jays would love to see looks more and more like an outlier.  Rasmus has always shown power.  His high HR/FB% indicates that, but he strikes out at higher than league average rates (23.8% in 2012, 23.0% over his career, 19.8% LA in 2012).  However, Rasums's ability to get on base at league average or better rates appears entirely dependent on his ability to hit for average.  He has consistently posted below average BABIPs (.259 in 2012), and if he continues to post high strikeout rates, high Infield Fly Ball rates (IFFB), and low ground ball numbers, this will not change. 

Am I suggesting that the Jays replace Rasmus with Gose?  Absolutely not.  Rasmus's power is very valuable to have in your lineup and I'm sure the Blue Jays are convinced that he still can still find that 2010 form.  I'm suggesting that if the Jays don't find someone better to play left field in 2013, that Gose should be given a shot.  He has shown flashes of becoming exactly the type of hitter that they Jays just don't have right now, and could boost the overall efficiency of the offense of a team that can already hit the ball out of the park.

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* These are Baseball Reference figures.  Baseball Reference includes line drives in fly ball numbers while Fangraphs doesn't.  On Fangraphs, the Jays had 12.8% of fly balls leave the park while they calculate the league average to be 11.9%.

** Since Rasmus played so much more than Gose last year, I'll be using rate stats to compare them.