Prospects! Part 3: New Hampshire Fisher Cats - Pitching

Until the end of 2012, New Hampshire was where the Blue Jays were stashing several of their more advanced pitching prospects in preparation for a jump to the big leagues.  With the Jays reaching an agreement with the Buffalo Bisons for 2013 and beyond, this will no longer be the case.  However, you can bet that New Hampshire will be the place that the Jays premiere pitching spends time in 2013 and 2014 on their way to the big leagues.   On the pitching side, there were several top prospects who plied their trades in New Hampshire this season.

Disappointments: Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins

Just getting a taste: Marcus Stroman, Sean Nolin

Surprise: Sam Dyson

On the fence: John Stilson

Photo: Kevin Pataky/MiLB.com

The biggest disappointment on the Fisher Cats in 2012 would have to be Deck McGuire (current MLB.com ranking* - #12).  McGuire is a college righty who doesn't throw particularly hard (peaking around 92mph).  He was thought to be one of the more advanced pitchers available when he was selected in the first round of the 2010 draft (11th overall).  While McGuire had an excellent 2011 that produced a lot of optimism (3.02 ERA between Dunedin and New Hampshire - 2.75 K/BB ratio, .232 OPP BA), he struggled mightily in 2012.  In 28 starts and 144 innings, he posted a 5.88 ERA, striking out only 15.1% of hitters, while walking 9.8%.  Working mostly out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League (a notorious hitter's league), he did a little better, striking out 20.4% but walking 13.0% (in only 13 2/3 innings).  The scariest thing about what has happened to McGuire is that his strikeouts are way down, while his walks are up.  Since he doesn't have overpowering stuff to begin with, this is obviously a concern that he won't be able to get batters out at higher levels in the minors.  He is still only 23 and I'll draw another comparison to a Blue Jays pitcher without overpowering stuff who struggled in the minors - Ricky Romero.  In AA in 2008, Romero posted worse K/9, BB/9, and WHIP than McGuire did in 2012.  I think there's still hope for him, but he'll have to figure out a few things quickly.  McGuire will, in all likelihood, return to AA in 2013, unless the Jays want to challenge him, in which case, he'll be in Buffalo.

Photo: Kevin Littlefield/NH Fisher Cats

Chad Jenkins received a callup to the majors and pitched respectably out of the pen for the Blue Jays (and made three starts) picking up 32 major league innings to go along with 114.1 minor league ones.  Jenkins will be 25 in December, so this will be a make-it-or-break-it time for him.  I won't say that he particularly earned his call-up to the majors, primarily because he didn't pitch all that well in AA.  An argument was made that because Jenkins is primarily a ground ball pitcher (getting 1.24 Ground outs to Air outs in AA in 2012), he would benefit from better major league defense behind him and actually do better in the majors.  This didn't prove to be the case, as his GO/AO ratio was 0.94 for the Jays.  Jenkins is another pitcher without overpowering stuff (supported by his very low K% numbers - 11.2% in AA, 11.8% in MLB) and, like McGuire, his strikeout numbers were way down from his pace in 2011.  Unless the Jays suffer another rash of injuries, I would expect Jenkins to pitch 2013 in Buffalo.  If there's no bounce back in his strikeout percentage, I would say he has hit his ceiling.  Unless his offspeed pitches develop (his fastball is unremakable, averaging 90.9 mph for the Jays in 2012) to become swing-and-miss material, I don't see Jenkins being able to sustain success as a starter, and if anything, he could be just another bullpen guy.

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Marcus Stroman (current MLB.com ranking - #10) was selected by the Blue Jays in the first round of the 2012 draft (22 overall) and quickly signed and began his professional career in Vancouver.  After a couple of rough outings, he dominated the Short Season A opponents and was promoted to AA.  There he continued to pitch well before testing positive for Methylhexaneamine on Aug. 28, 2012 and receiving a 50 game suspension.  The organization doesn't believe this to be a large problem due to its most likely coming from a nutritional supplement that Stroman didn't know was banned.  Stroman will probably begin 2013 (after he returns from his suspension in May) in AA, but look for him to be promoted quickly.  The organization hasn't let on whether they will have him start or relieve in 2013.  Many scouts think that his size (only 5'9") and effort-laden delivery won't support him being a starter in the long term.  Comparisons have been made to Tim Lincecum of the Giants who apparently broke down this year.  Scouts and analysts think that Stroman can be in the majors in 2013 coming out of the bullpen with a good fastball and an excellent (and highly developed) slider.  Many were predicting that he'd be wearing a Blue Jays uniform in September of 2012 until his positive drug test.

Photo: MiLB.com

Sean Nolin (current MLB.com ranking - #19) has been climbing the ladder and impressing at every level.  He hasn't drawn as much attention as the Lansing 3, but as Mark Hulet of Fangraphs says, he was one of the big surprises of 2012.  I'm not so sure why Hulet was suprised; Nolin had an outstanding 2011 in Lansing and has simply built on those successes this year mostly in Dunedin.  Nolin has better stuff than either McGuire or Jenkins and seemingly (by looking at his walk and strikeout numbers) has learned to use his pitches pretty well.  With continued good peripheral numbers in the minors, Nolin will probably at least find a major league job in the bullpen as a lefty.  His upside, could be as high as a Ricky Romero type starter, with a slightly better fastball (although his changeup is probably not as good).  Nolin will most likely start 2012 in AA and get at least two months of work there before moving up.

Photo: AP Photo

Sam Dyson was a dark horse last season who sprung up and had a great year in New Hampshire (even getting a cup of coffee in the majors).  He went to the Arizona Fall League and was named an all-star (although he didn't pitch in the game due to his innings limit being reached).  He began the season starting in Dunedin, but really came into his own as a reliever in AA.  His peripheral numbers, however indicate that more seasoning is going to be required, due to his low strikeout numbers (although walks are under control at this point).  His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was much higher than his ERA at New Hampshire (ERA - 2.38, FIP - 4.06), which indicates that he may have troubles in the future.  His scouting report says that he has a good fastball (low-mid 90s) that sinks and gets a lot of ground balls, but his breaking pitches are well behind the fastball in development. 

John Stilson (current MLB.com ranking - #16) fell in the 2011 draft due to a shoulder injury.  The Jays snapped him up in the 3rd round and he made his professional debut in 2012.  He was strong in Dunedin, and earned a promotion to AA where he showed signs of struggling despite maintaining a good strikeout rate (5.04 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 19.6% K, 10.2% BB).  Scouts love his stuff, but durability issues may lead to Stilson's future being as a reliever.  Stilson won't turn 23 until July of 2013, so he'll have plenty of time to work his way up from AA, but look for him to try to develop his breaking stuff to go with his good heat, and probably work out of the bullpen next season. 

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* This is from MLB.com's current ranking of the player on their top 20 list of Blue Jays prospects, compiled by Jonathan Mayo. 

Blogging about the Manager

Alex Anthopoulos pulled another rabbit out of his hat with the (re)signing of John Gibbons to manage the 2013 Blue Jays.  This came as a surprise to just about everyone, except for Toronto Sun columnist Bob Elliott, who only wrote about this possibility yesterday.  Gibbons, in his opening remarks, even said how out of the blue this was.  He said that he was following the managerial search and that the media "were way off!" but did single out Elliott for getting it right.

How do I feel, as a humble blogger, about this piece of news?  Fine.  I always liked Gibby and his down-home folksy charm.  Word is that the players (with a couple of notable exceptions) loved to play for him and AA has commented that he loves Gibby's bullpen management.  Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590 on the Twitter) has also commented that he really uses platoons well, so we probably won't see much of an Adam Lind-type doing much hitting against left-handed pitching.

Many more people have brought up Gibby's incidents with Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly (you can read about it at many other blogs), but Alex Anthopoulos says that there's not much of a concern there, and Gibby himself said that he felt like he learned from the incidents.  For me, it's a non-starter: at least he seems to care.

Personally, I don't think the manager has a heck of a lot of influence on the game and Gibbons said that he feels that his role is to get the most out of the players.  That's a really refreshing thing to hear from a manager who doesn't over-inflate his self importance.

Bringing Gibbons back also gives us a super fun drinking game to play when watching Blue Jays games and listening to post-game interviews.  We can take bets on the over/under of "I'll tell you what"s that Gibbons and commentator Buck Martinez throw out there in the course of a day, or just simply drink when we hear one.

It's gonna be a fun year, I'll tell you what.

Requisite Melky Cabrera Blog Post

Alex Anthopoulos has shown that he is definitely not finished in his quest to turn the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays into a World Series contender.  He has set about transforming this team, adding depth, pitching and star-power over this off-season that is not even a month old yet. 

His latest move was to sign free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera to a 2-year, $16 million contract (Anthopoulos's biggest free agent contract in his tenure as a GM) which sent another shockwave through the baseball world.  If you've been living under a rock for the past year, it will be news to you that Cabrera, 2/3 of the way through an outstanding career year in which he was leading the NL batting race, was suspended for 50 games for elevated testosterone levels.  He then tried to cover it up by creating a fake nutritional supplement and a fake website that did not explain any potential effects of the product.  Baseball was too smart for Melky and (unlike Ryan Braun in 2011), his suspension stood up.  The World Series champions Giants did not even add Cabrera to their playoff roster despite his being eligible. 

I don't think I can say much that other bloggers and writers haven't already.  Most, like me, are all for this move.  Cabrera's last two seasons were very, very good, and even if his numbers regress (which they almost surely will), still provides a much better option in left field than either of the home grown options in Gose* or Sierra or ex-Marlin Emilio Bonifacio (whom Mike Wilner has taken to calling "Boneface"). 

Here's the other reason why I like this deal so much.  By current MLB standards, $8 million a year in a 2 year guaranteed contract is a bargain for an outfielder who can provide what even a regressed Melky Cabrera can.  AND (here comes the best part) . . . he comes aboard practically free of charge.  That's right.  The Blue Jays are (reportedly) getting exactly $8 million dollars from the Miami Marlins as part of their mammoth trade.  So the Jays have reinvested the cash coming over from Miami to further upgrading the team instead of putting into the gigantic pocket that is Rogers communications.**

You might ask, "how can Cabrera be practically free?   That only covers the first year of the 2 year deal."  Simple.  MLB reached a new national TV deal that will kick in in 2014 that pays each team $25 million more than they're getting now.  This means that when the contracts of Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle rise from the low $10-million range to the $20-ish million range in 2014 and beyond, the money will be there to cover it.  And one more year of Melky Cabrera at $8 million.

Finally, what this deal does is buy the Jays some time.  They are not rushed into pressing Anthony Gose into a regular major league role which gives him another year to develop in the safety of the minor leagues.  Secondly, it gives them another year to figure out what they have in Colby Rasmus.  If, by 2014, the team thinks that Gose can give them more than Rasmus, then Anthopoulos can try to find a taker for Rasmus and bring something else useful back.  If Rasmus finds his 2010 self again, and Gose fails to develop as hoped, then Rasmus can remain with the team.  If both players blossom, then AA has a fantastic problem on his hands with 2 valuable center fielders.  And if both players regress, then at least Gose will be in the minors in 2013 and Rasmus will be able to be hidden in a much more potent lineup than the team had last year. 

If Cabrera is a bust, the Jays really aren't hurt by this deal.  If he contributes, then AA has just made another deal to strengthen the team.

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* Yes, I know that Gose wasn't drafted by the Blue Jays and can't really be considered "home grown."

** Jeffrey Loria would have said "$8 million?  Now I can buy that Italian estate I've had my eye on."

Prospects! Part 2: Las Vegas 51s

Almost there: C Travis d'Arnaud, CF Anthony Gose

Borderliners: 1B David Cooper, OF Moises Sierra

Under the Radar: 1B Mike McDade

Gone, Baby, Gone: SS Adeiny Hechevarria

Summary: Yes, there are no pitchers even to be discussed among the top prospects that played for the 51s last season.* Vegas = death to pitchers and the Jays kept anyone even close to a prospect away last season, preferring to promote to the big club rather than send them to Vegas.  Fortunately, that situation will be rectified in 2013 as the Jays' affiliations have changed to a much more convenient home in Buffalo.  Frankly, the best numbers that were posted by Las Vegas 51s in 2012 were by guys who spent significant portions of their season in the major leagues.  Top OPSs: Adam Lind (1.112), Travis Snider (1.021), Travis d'Arnaud (.975), Yan Gomes (.938), Eric Thames (.935), and David Cooper (.935).  The next player on the list with more than 200 ABs in Vegas?  Moises Sierra.  So basically, anyone who performed will in Vegas was either major leaguer/Quad-A Player (31-year-old minor league veteran Ricardo Nanita was also close to that leader board) or a top prospect.  Gose and Hechevarria weren't among the sluggers in Vegas, but did post respectable numbers, that, again, tell us very little and it's much more useful to look at their performances in their extended major league call ups last season.

Photo credit: Unknown

Travis d'Arnaud (by all measures, the Jays' top prospect in 2012**) was pulling a J.P. Arencibia by posting league MVP type numbers in the first half of the season before suffering a knee injury in June.  D'Arnaud was hitting .333 with 16 HRs and an OPS of .975.  We saw a precipitous drop in batting average from Arencibia when he made the jump to the majors, so it's very difficult to predict what may happen with d'Arnaud.  However, most scouts feels that d'Arnaud has the potential to hit for a better average than Arencibia (perhaps without quite as much power) and is a better defensive catcher.  This off-season will definitely be interesting for the Jays' catchers.  Bloggers have suggested that the Jays could trade one of d'Arnaud or Arencibia as part of a deal to add quality starting pitching this off-season (particularly with John Buck coming to the Jays in The Trade).  Frankly, I'm excited to see what d'Arnaud can do at a major league level, but he may end up getting dealt, mainly because he has more value than Arencibia. 

Photo credit: Unknown

A subject of a good chunk of one of my previous posts, Anthony Gose*** also showed significantly inflated numbers in Vegas.  In AAA, he hit .286/.366/.419 with 21 2B, 10 3B, 5 HR, 34 SB and 101 strikeouts in 420 at bats.  What is interesting is that both Gose more-or-less maintained the spacing between his batting average and on-base percentage when he made the jump to the majors.  Gose's job should be to get on base, and he was able to do so in AAA at a very good rate.  Gose is considered to be ready for the majors defensively.  He has outstanding range, great instincts and an arm that is way beyond what a centerfielder is even hoped to have.  He may return to AAA in 2013, this time playing in a more challenging hitting environment in Buffalo before returning to Toronto, most likely at some point next season.

Photo: Steve Spatafore

David Cooper is a player that really isn't considered a prospect anymore, but has done nothing but hit at every level in the minors and even showed some maturity and pop in the majors last season as a replacement for Adam Lind.  Cooper really has nothing left to prove in AAA, hitting .314/.395/.540 in 2012.   Last season, he returned to the majors as a much more patient and confident hitter, hitting .300 in 140 ABs with 15 extra-base hits.  The only concern with Cooper is the fact that he only took 4 walks in the majors and struck out 22 times, whereas, he actually walked more than he struck out in AAA (37 BB, 34 K).  If Cooper can show the plate discipline that he's shown throughout his minor league career, he could be a very productive major league player (assuming his 2012 stats were not aberrant ).  The big question with Cooper is that scouts don't think that he can hit for enough power as a first baseman to be truly valuable at the big league level, and the Blue Jays just don't have anywhere to put him, with Adam Lind and his (most likely) immovable contract in front of him as a left-handed hitting first baseman and Edwin Encarnacion breaking out in 2012 and with the organization toying with thoughts of having Travis d'Arnaud play first base if J.P. Arencibia is still around.  Cooper is pretty much the odd man out.

Photo: Battersbox.ca

Moises Sierra earned some playing time in Toronto for the injured Jose Bautista after the trades of Travis Snider and Eric Thames.  In 2012, his first AAA season, the 24 year old put up very respectable numbers, but not as PCL-inflated as you might have thought coming off the strong AA season he had last year.  The knock against Sierra is that he's a free-swinger, which showed up in his big league debut.  Sierra struck out in 28% of his plate appearances, well above the league average, and put together an OPS of only .648.  Basically, while Sierra was succeeding in AAA (.289/.360/.472), he had a rough first-exposure to ML pitching in his 147 ABs with the Jays.  The big question with Sierra is whether he's hit his ceiling or not.  He is known to be pretty good defensively and has a cannon of an arm, so he can be useful as a defensive replacement off the bench for a major league team.  He will, in all likelihood, start 2013 in Buffalo and work on his offensive game.

Photo: Dave Schofield

23 year old Mike McDade's biggest problem is that he plays 1B.  On the Jays' depth charts, he's behind Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Travis d'Arnaud, and David Cooper.  But McDade is a hitter who has been hitting for average and power since 2009 in A ball.  He has also started to address his issues with striking out too much, and not walking enough (taking more walks in 100 fewer at bats in AA in 2012 than in 2011, but strikeout numbers were still high).  While he needs some maturing, the organization will have issues as to where to put him.  If David Cooper returns to AAA in 2013, then the Jays will have McDade and Cooper splitting time at 1B while the other most likely DHs.  McDade already repeated AA for most of 2012 because of the logjam at his position and has nothing left to prove there as is evidenced by his all-star selections in 2011 and 2012.

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* The only pitcher that could even be considered a prospect is Chad Beck who struggled mightily in his time with the big club and was claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates when the Jays tried to pass him through waivers. 

 

**I will normally include rankings  from MLB.com's top 20 list of Blue Jays prospects, compiled by Jonathan Mayo.  There are many other such measures - Baseball America, Fangraphs, John Sickels's Minor League Ball rankings are but three examples.

*** By many measures, Gose is no longer considered a prospect due to his accumulation of too many major league at-bats in 2012.  He exceeded the limit to be considered for rookie eligibility by about 30 at-bats.

My Blue Jays Cap goes to ... Amsterdam

So I took a weekend trip to Amsterdam last week and, of course, brought my Blue Jays cap with me.  I snapped a few photos of the cap enjoying the sights (no, there is no photo of my Blue Jays cap smoking a joint).

Rijksmuseum

A canal

Church

Prospects! Part 1: Introduction

Since I've already summed up the Jays' regular season and with Fangraphs starting to compile their top 15 prospects lists, I thought I would go through the Blue Jays system and talk about some of the young players on their way up through the minors.  Most sites do a top 10, 15, or 20 ranking of the Jays' (or whatever team's) prospects with analysis of the players.  Many of these writers are able to see some of these players in person but since I've been away, I have not had any opportunity to make the road (or other kinds of) trips necessary to see these guys live. 

I do consider myself very plugged in to what's going on with the Jays' minor league teams and what's being written about in the blogosphere, but I can only base my musings on what I've gathered from other writers and from examining their readily available stats and scouting reports.  I hope to be able to be able to find some sort of new insight into some of the youngsters in the Jays system, but anything I hope to add will purely be speculative and subjective.  I haven't seen anything of these players live (although if I'm in Toronto during the baseball season, I'll most certainly try to get down to games in Buffalo, New Hampshire, and Lansing) so I may be completely wrong in many respects.  I have players that I've certainly been following, primarily throughout 2012, and I'll try to highlight those players throughout this series.

To try to organize things a little differently than other blogs, I'll recap prospects from each team in the Blue Jays farm system that are either highly touted or at least interesting and I'll also put together my own list of top prospects at the end of this series.  

When considering teams, I'll include players who finish the season there (with a couple of exceptions).  The Jays have a tendency to promote players who are doing well at a level to the next level towards the end of the year to give them a taste of the higher level.  Usually, players who receive these kinds of promotions (e.g., Mike McDade, Jake Marisnick, Sean Nolin) will begin the following year at level at which they ended the season.

Toronto's minor league affiliates (2012):

AAA - Las Vegas 51s (Pacific Coast League)
AA - New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Eastern League)
A+ - Dunedin Blue Jays (Florida State League)
A - Lansing Lugnuts (Midwest League)
Short Season A - Vancouver Canadians (Northwest League)
Rookie + - Bluefield Blue Jays (Appalachian League)
Rookie - Dunedin Blue Jays (Gulf Coast League)

In my next post, I'll begin with the AAA 51s and proceed to the lower levels as I go.

Holy Shnikies

Lying in bed in Berlin around 11:30pm or midnight, I noticed that activity on Twitter had picked up (@jaysfromaway).  Instead of the usual 1 new tweet per 5 minutes, there were 6 new tweets in 1 minute.  That was my first inclination that something big was going down.

The first reports (and they were reports from very solid Major League reporters like Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal) said that starting pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle were coming to Toronto.  Then SS Jose Reyes's name got thrown around.  Who was going back?  At first it was just SS Yunel Escobar and SS Adeiny Hechavarria, but clearly there would have to be more . . . that's not enough for 2 starting pitchers and an all-star shortstop!  The deal got bigger:  Henderson Alvarez, Jake Marisnick, John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, Anthony DeSclafani, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino were all mentioned.

And so, after much digital ink was spilled the fog cleared, the final trade appeared to be:

Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, Jake Marisnick, Anthony DeSclafani, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino

for

Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, and $4 million.

A 12-player deal that rocked the baseball world.  While this trade still isn't official (any trade involving cash must be approved by the commissioner's office and is contingent on players passing physicals), it's getting a lot of press and scrutiny.  I'm not going to look too closely at the baseball side of this trade just yet, it's still early, but several revelations come out of this about the Blue Jays and the Marlins that I'll add my perspective to the digital reams that are being devoted to last night's events.

Revelation #1: Starting Pitching is expensive.

Ok. This isn't a revelation, but it's a fact of doing business in the major leagues.  While the Blue Jays instantly strengthen their pitching staff, the cost was significant.  The young talent going to Miami is already good, with the potential to be great.  I'm pretty convinced that Henderson Alvarez will find a way to strike batters out enough at the major league level to be a solid #4 starter or better.  I'm pretty convinced that Hechavarria will be able to hit enough to provide some value as a starting shortstop.  As far as the minor league talent goes, Marisnick has tons of upside on his tools and is still young and Nicolino is already very well developed despite his ceiling being the lowest of the Lansing 3.  I have a feeling that the Marlins won't be as cautious as the Jays have been with either him or DeSclafani.  Look for them to start 2013 in AA.

Additionally, the Blue Jays will be paying for this trade for many years with 5 years left on Reyes's contract and 3 on Buehrle's, each rising into the $20 million range by the end (Johnson's expires this year).  On the other side, if the Jays had signed any of the top- or second-tier free agent starters this off-season (like Anibal Sanchez) , they would most likely be locked into 5 or 6 year contracts, paying $15 million per year (rumour has it that Sanchez is asking for 6 years and $90 million).  Giving a pitcher in his late 20's or early 30's a contract that long is something that the Jays (or any team) don't want to do.  As we've seen this year, pitchers are fragile.

This trade is a risk, particularly in the sense that Johnson, Reyes, and Bonifacio have had injury issues and should something happen to any of the real high price players, the Jays are on the hook with injured or ageing players who are eating up salary.  Buehrle has been durable, but is getting older, and probably won't be providing excellent value on the $18 and $19 million he's owed in 2014 and 2015.   

Revelation #2: Jeffrey Loria is an ass.

Writers from all over the baseball world are noticing how this is a gigantic salary dump from an underperforming team.  As is Loria's M.O., the team makes a splash, appears to be being aggressive, and then tears everything apart quickly.  Look at the Marlins' World Series year.  They won it all, then dismantled the team to get young and cheap (and bad).  Loria is alienating his fans, and, his players.  Several Marlins, including the face of the franchise, Giancarlo Stanton, tweeted their shock and anger yesterday.  Stanton's (@giancarlo818) tweet was memorable: Alright, I'm pissed off!!! Plain & Simple.

I'm sure Stanton will be out of Miami as soon as he becomes a free agent (or sooner).  If the firesale continues, he won't be signing any team-friendly contract extensions before he is eligible for arbitration after this coming season.

Oh yeah. Loria's the pied piper who led the Expos out of Montreal, left the league holding the reins, and then bought another team in Florida.  To quote the great Joe Flaherty: "Jackass!"

Revelation #3: Alex Anthopoulos probably isn't finished yet.

The team has 4 catchers on the 40 man roster.  While Bobby Wilson is certainly a backup, I can't see both Buck and Arencibia playing every day or even having a 50/50 split of the starting duties.  Is John Buck going to be a $6 million backup catcher who didn't hit much in the last 2 years?  Since his career year in Toronto in 2010, Buck hasn't exceeded a .700 OPS and has hit under .230 both years.  People complain about Arencibia's low batting average and OBP, but at least he can hit for power, has improved his defense, and is providing better value over the past 2 seasons at a better price.  Because the Jays are now no longer in "wait for the youngsters develop" mode, they're going to be less inclined to allow d'Arnaud to grow into the role at the major league level; therefore, I see one of 4 scenarios.

1: Buck is the backup this year and the Jays eat the $6 million they owe him while JPA plays every day.* D'arnaud cools his heels in Buffalo for another year of development (and keeping his ML service time clock from starting), and Bobby Wilson is lost on waivers at the end of Spring Training.  If JPA is traded at any point after the start of the season, scenario 2 comes into effect.

2: JPA is traded at some point this off-season and d'Arnaud is called up and is given the opportunity to start. In this scenario, Wilson will probably be kept on the 25 man roster in case d'Arnaud can't produce in the majors.  D'Arnaud probably gets some playing time at 1B/DH until the Jays are confident that he's their big league starting catcher.

3: Buck is traded or given his outright release.   There's a battle for the starting catcher's position between JPA and d'Arnaud, with d'Arnaud also getting some time at 1B/DH.

4: Buck regains his batting stroke of 2010, JPA is traded, Wilson backs up, and d'Arnaud spends the year in  AAA and takes over the starting role in 2014.

This team still has holes.  There are a few questions that arise from this enormous trade.


The starting rotation, instead of being 2 quality starters deep last year (with question marks for the #3,#4,#5 roles), is now 3 quality starters deep.  We still don't know how Ricky Romero is going to rebound in 2013, and J.A. Happ, while ok as a 5th starter, might need to be improved upon should the Jays want to really make a playoff push in 2013.  Do the Jays delve into the free agent pool for someone like Shawn Marcum?  Are the Jays willing to add another $10 million in payroll for a quality starter?  With the injuries last year, the only real viable candidate to compete with Happ in spring training is Chad Jenkins, who (in my humble opinion) will probably start 2013 in Buffalo.  Drabek is not due back until mid-summer and Hutchison probably won't see any action before September (if at all this season).

Do the Jays see Izturis as the every day 2nd baseman?  Or will they try to use Bonifacio in that role?  What about left field?  If the Jays want to contend this year, Gose is not the answer there, and neither is Moises Sierra.

There are still holes on this roster and there's lots of off-season left to address them.


Revalation #4: Blue Jays fans (and players) have something to be excited about again.

The blogosphere is going crazy with praise for Alex Anthopoulos and Rogers for opening the chequebook.  Anthopoulos is also lauded for his ability to operate under the radar and then explode with big news about acquiring the pitching help that everyone knew the team needed.  People were doubting his ninja-ness.  No longer.

Jose Bautista (@JoeyBats19) tweeted "It's a good day to be a bluejay!"  Ricky Romero and Casey Janssen both expressed more cautious optimism without either official confirmation or league approval.

*****

The fact is that the Jays made a really exciting move to address a huge area of weakness (starting pitching), and upgraded a position that was solid defensively, if under-producing in 2012 (shortstop).  They also get another versatile bench player and another catcher.  They gave up a potentially good starting pitcher (or great reliever) in Alvarez, a promising young shortstop with genuine concerns about his bat in Hechavarria, a head case of another shortstop in Escobar, a backup catcher, and three prospects who are at least 2 years away from contributing.

This was a "win now" move and really stabilizes the starting rotation until the prospects start to bubble up to the major league surface and the injured arms return to compete for jobs.**  It also allows the Jays to be more patient and not rush their pitching prospects along.

This is easily the single biggest trade in Blue Jays history and possibly in baseball history and could either usher in a new era in the Blue Jays being a playoff contender, or it could blow up in Alex Anthopoulos's face.  It's risky, it's exciting, it's why we're all baseball fans.

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*I'll go out on a limb and predict a .245/.295/.465 slash line with 25 home runs for Arencibia, showing marginal improvements in his eye and contact abilities in his 3rd major league season.

**I argue that neither Drabek nor Hutchison have proven or earned anything yet.  Both will need to return from injury, head to the minors (first rehab, then probably a regular assignment to Buffalo) and earn their way back to the bigs.