Prospects! part 5: Dunedin Blue Jays - Pitching

Dark Horse: Marcus Walden
The Closer: Danny Barnes
A Tale of 2 Cities: Jesse Hernandez

Men are from: Dayton Marze

Photo: Jim Goins

The more I looked at Marcus Walden while researching this article, the more I began to think that there might be more to him than just another minor league pitcher.  To demonstrate how little information there is about him, it took me about 20 minutes of searching the internet just to find a scouting report.* The one report I managed to find (from Lansing in early 2012) suggested that Walden tired quickly and may end up in the bullpen.  Walden has been in the Jays system for a long time now (drafted in 2007), and probably has stayed under the radar due to his lack of overpowering stuff and his disastrous 2009 season where he only pitched 16 2/3 innings in Dunedin (to an 8.64 ERA), a level that was probably a bit over his head at the time.  I haven't been able to find a reason for his season being cut short (and missing the entire 2010 season), but I would suppose that it is due to injury.  He came back in 2011 to pitch a solid season in Lansing, where he opened 2011.  After 14 excellent starts there in 2012, he was promoted to Dunedin where he pitched even BETTER over 13 appearances (12 starts) and 77 2/3 innings.  He posted a 14.4% K rate (below average) there and brought his walk numbers more in line with his 2011 numbers (6.2%).  Again, while I can't find what kind of stuff he throws, it's clear from the stats that Walden's success, particularly in Dunedin came from his excellent control and his ability to have hitters hit the ball on the ground.  He has historically had VERY low HR rates (giving up only 5 in 2011 and 2012 combined), and very high ground ball rates (2.82 GO/AO in 2012; only under 2.00 twice since 2007).  Walden is now 24 years old, and will probably have to start in AA next season in order to really be viewed as a viable candidate to make the majors at some point.  However, the Jays have liked these extreme ground ball pitchers in recent years (think Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchison, and Chad Jenkins) which may give Walden a fighting chance.

Photo: Jim Goins

Danny Barnes is a 2010 college draftee of the Jays who is now 23 years old and put up a fantastic season for the Dunedin Jays coming out of the bullpen, setting a new team record for saves (34).  He compiled 51 1/3 innings while striking out 63 and walking only 16 (30.7% K rate, 7.8% BB rate).  He throws in the low-mid 90s and has a couple of options for offspeed pitches but the most recent scouting report that I read indicates that his slider is his best pitch and is particularly effective against right handed batters.  He'll probably start in New Hampshire where he got a brief look-see this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him in Buffalo by the end of the year.  He may have the stuff to pitch in the bigs sometime next year, but with how crowded the bullpen is looking, I don't think he'll get that chance.

Photo: Jim Goins

Pitching in Lansing, 24-year-old Jesse Hernandez looked like he belonged with the Lansing Three (Sanchez and the now traded Syndergaard, Nicolino), despite being 4 years older then any of them.  In 95 2/3 innings in Lansing, Hernandez put up a 2.26 ERA and gave up 82 hits and 19 walks.  The one thing that these cherry picked numbers didn't show is that Hernandez only struck out 16.1% of batters (61 strikeouts in the aforementioned 95 2/3 innings).  After making the jump to Dunedin, in 47 2/3 innings, Hernandez had a 6.61 ERA, maintaining (generally) his strikeout and walk ratios, but getting hit much more, particularly with the ball leaving the park (7 HR in Dunedin compared to 2 HR in almost exactly twice as many innings in Lansing).  According to a "self scouting report" from OK Blue Jays blog, Hernandez is mostly a sinker ball pitcher who has picked up a cutter.  He also says that he throws a slider and a change up.  I have a feeling that he doesn't throw all that hard, which makes any kind of projection of a 24 year old A-ball pitcher with one or two variations of a fastball very difficult.  However, if he takes his rough time in Dunedin as a learning experience, he might come out of it with further advancement through the system in 2013.

Photo: Unknown

Dayton Marze has shown up on the Jays Journal Top 50 prospects list for the last couple of years (landing at #39 in 2011) and had a very solid year at Dunedin in his age-23 season.  The most recent scouting report I could find indicates that Marze (in 2011) was throwing 89-93 with a sinker that was an effective weapon for him.  In his first season of pro-ball in Auburn (the Jays' Short-Season A affiliate before they moved it to Vancouver) he was very effective in just over 26 innings, and had another solid season as a workhorse reliever in Lansing in 2011.  There, he saw a rise in both his K% (to 19.3%) and his BB% (to 8.4%) while his ground out ratio fell (although was still good at 1.60 GO/AO).  In over 70 innigns in Dunedin this season, while he posted a very good ERA (2.82) and an improved WHIP (1.31), his GO/AO ratio (1.09) and K% (12.5%) fell and his BB% went up a tick (to 8.8%).  Marze will probably start 2013 in AA, but I'm not sure if success there will follow unless he improves his secondary pitches and can miss some bats.

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*Stats are easy to find.... scouting reports of more obscure players, not so much. 

On Risks and Rewards

The rewards are simple: A World Series championship.

The risks, however, need much more discussion before we can truly understand what is at play in the reported trade with the Mets for R.A. Dickey.

In the best case scenario, General Manager's job is basically about balancing risks against this one reward.  While some GMs may be going after a different reward (turning a profit, keeping his job), I'm working under the assumption that Alex Anthopoulos isn't one of those GMs who is under pressure from management to keep his job, or hamstring his attempts to put together a winning team by imposing a restrictive budget.

Risks are inherent in all aspects of baseball (general) managing.  There used to be 50 rounds in the major league draft.  Why? Because baseball has the largest gap between the level of skill required to succeed at the top professional level than college or high school levels of any sport.  Along the journey from draftee to major leaguer, almost ALL draftees fail.  Drafting any player is a risk.

Signing players to any contract is another risk.  They can be injured at any point along the way, or they can just fail to perform as expected.  This risk is magnified with long term contracts although GMs gamble that the player will stay healthy and contribute enough to mitigate those risks.

Anthopoulos has shown the ability, in his tenure as GM of the Toronto Blue Jays, to both minimize and maximize risk.  To minimize risk, he has greatly increased the size of the scouting staff from that of his predecessor, thus increasing the amount of information coming in to inform his decisions.  He has taken more risks by drafting more high school players and more "high upside" players, as one baseball writer (can't remember which one) has remarked in compiling his top 10 Blue Jays prospects list that the Jays have not been successful drafting high-upside batters over the past few seasons. They have also been drafting players with loads of potential that other teams are staying away from due to other concerns like signability, injury, or character (Anthony Alford, Matt Smoral, and many others).

This pattern of high-risk acquisitions has been repeated  at the major league level, by following AA's pattern of "buying low" on guys like Yunel Escobar, Colby Rasmus, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Lawrie.  He has also taken risks in signing a player like Jose Bautista to a five-year contract after his breakout season, gambling that he was really the player of 2010, not the player of the years before.

Clearly, Anthopoulos is not afraid of taking a risk.  Many people are saying that (if the rumours are true) if the Jays give up both Travis d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard for R.A. Dickey, then they are overpaying.  However, this is clearly a calculated risk by AA.  Here's why.

1. The "Bautista Window."  Apparently, Anthopoulos promised Jose Bautista that he would do his best to make the Blue Jays competitive in the playoffs in the window provided by Bautista's 5 year contract (signed before the 2011 season).  Additionally, the Bautista Window includes the years that the Jays will have players like Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, and Brandon Morrow under contract.  After the MegaTrade with Miami, Anthopoulos was already going for more than just a steadily improving young ball club that could eventually win.  Now, with the acquisition of Dickey, he's solidifying holes and trading away prospects whose impact on the major league team will be nil in 2013.

2. Prospects rarely exceed expectations at the major league level.  We saw one of these last season in Mike Trout, but it's really rare for a rookie (and a 20-year-old for that matter) to give you jaw dropping production. This is why AA is spending prospects like currency going back to the J.A. Happ trade last season.  As many other writers have said, prospects have two purposes - developing into Major Leaguers to help your team, and being traded to get Major Leaguers to help your team.

3. The nature of the Jays team and farm system.  As I've written about previously, the Blue Jays already have a pretty good offense that has gotten better over the off-season.  Combined with the return of Jose Bautista, the Jays have added Jose Reyes and Melky Cabrera who will be significant improvements over the 2012 players who played SS and LF.  Additionally, the Jays will hopefully get better production out of the 2B spot.  Even without improvements by J.P. Arencibia, Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind, and Colby Rasmus, this is a good offensive team.  The Jays also had a potential contributor in 2013 in Travis d'Arnaud, and still have Anthony Gose who could contribute next season as well (assuming that d'Arnaud and not Gose is included in the Dickey deal).

On the other hand, the pitching in 2012 was atrocious.  And the Jays did not have a lot of help coming through the system.  Injuries to Drew Hutchison, Kyle Drabek, Luis Perez, and others mean that they are not available until after the all-star break at the earliest.  The minor league system was stocked (and still isn't bare) with pitching prospects -- for the most part -- from the A-ball level down.  If Anthopoulos wants to take advantage of his good offense, he needed to get quality pitching NOW, and by trading for it, he avoids paying mediocre pitchers $18 million and locking himself in to 5 year contracts.

The way the farm system is set up, there are no pitchers coming to help the already good hitting that is present on the major league team.  Not in 2013 (ok, maybe Marcus Stroman), and the elite prospects are still 2-3 years away.  This off-season has been about taking the big risk to achieve the big reward - a World Series, and the way that Anthopoulos has had to do it was to sacrifice players who can not make an impact in 2013 to acquire the pitching that will now catch up to the hitting.

Do I like the deal?  It doesn't matter.  What matters is that Alex Anthopoulos feels that the reward -- the ability to compete for a World Series title -- will justify the risk.

Prospects! Part 4: New Hampshire Fisher Cats - Hitters

The Lost Season: C A.J. Jimenez

Under the Radar: IF Ryan Schimpf, OF Brad Glenn

The Steal: 1B Gabe Jacobo

Photo: Unknown

A.J. Jiminez (current MLB.com ranking - #18) is only 21, but he's been showing up on top prospect radars since 2009.  Jiminez is yet another catcher who may project to be a premium player, but in his injury-shortened 2012 season didn't show much with the bat.  He has been known for his defense and his contact hitting abilities (shown mostly in A-ball), but has not yet shown any power.  He'll most likely start 2013 as a DH in New Hampshire until his arm fully recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Photo: Ken Ryan/NH Fisher Cats

Ryan Schimpf has been toiling in the Jays minor league system since being a 5th round draft pick in 2009 out of LSU and was one of the real leaders in power  numbers in the Jays' system in 2012.  While his counting stats weren't impressive in 2011, you could see that he had power to spare, when he hit 10 HRs in 196 at bats in Dunedin.  He responded with another 22 HR in 472 ABs in 2012, split between Dunedin and New Hampshire.  Schimpf also shows good plate discipline (a knock on him earlier in his career), taking plenty of walks and getting on base.  it's unknown where the Blue Jays see him defensively.  In Dunedin he spent most of his time at 2B, where he made a lot of errors, while he played 3B and LF a lot in New Hampshire.  One thing is for sure, the Fisher Cats will want to get his bat in the line-up in 2013. Due to his age (24), Schimpf is not considered to be a real major league candidate for the Jays, but his versatility and his power will probably keep him employed in pro baseball for quite a while, and, if he does explode with a more eye-popping season (perhaps increasing his batting average to the .300 range, or hitting 25+ home runs in AA/AAA), he may appear on a few more radar screens.

Photo: Kevin Littlefield/NH Fisher Cats

 While OF Brad Glenn has been able to maintain his ability to hit for power in his rise throughout the Blue Jays' system, he has seen a steady drop in batting average and OBP at each level, casting great doubt on the 25-year-old's ability to ever play in the majors.  While Glenn led the Fisher Cats in home runs with 19 in 2012, his .233 batting average and .291 OBP just won't cut it.  If I was running the Jays, I'd have Glenn repeat the level, but the Jays had a large number of outfielders in AAA declare minor league free agency, and there may be a need in Buffalo next year.

Photo: Ken Ryan/NH Fisher Cats

Ok, so maybe Gabe Jacobo's not a steal, but he turned out to be a major league talent in an online league of OOTP Baseball that I'm in, and he did put up some good minor league numbers in the Jays organization in 2012 after being selected in the minor league portion of the Rule V draft.  Jacobo is also 25, so he's not really a prospect, but has been able to provide the Jays with a power hitting 1B in the high minors.  He'll probably return to AA in 2013, mainly because of the logjam at the position between the major league and AAA levels with EE, Adam Lind, Travis d'Arnaud, David Cooper, and Mike McDade all ahead of him on the depth chart.  NOTE: McDade was picked up on waivers by Cleveland since I originally wrote this post.

About Time

Since the signing of Melky Cabrera and the naming of John Gibbons manager, there hasn't been much to talk about in Blue Jay Land.

The Jays made some small moves, outrighting a couple of players to Vegas, and putting Mike McDade on waivers (where he was claimed by the Indians).  The Jays also added a couple of minor leaguers to the 40-man roster to protect them in the Rule V draft.  The most noteworthy was AA catcher A.J. Jiminez who missed most of last season after Tommy John surgery.  They Jays also chose to non-tender Bobby Wilson, and claimed Eli Whiteside off waivers from the Yankees.

Oh, and word came down today that the Miami Marlins have traded Yunel Escobar to Tampa Bay.  Looks like we'll be seeing him a fair bit as he returns to the AL East.

The Winter Meetings have also been quiet, with Alex Anthopoulos himself saying that there haven't been any significant trade talks, and there isn't likely to be a play for a significant free agent.

There has been a buzz around Hall of Fame talk as the ballot for 2013 induction was released and it includes a lot of big names that have been associated with Performance Enhancing Drugs like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, etc.

But the best recent news is that after many years of campaigning, Tom Cheek has been awarded the 2013 Ford C. Frick Award and will be enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

For anyone that grew up in Toronto, Cheek's voice was the voice of summer.  Before the days when all the games were televised (on whatever channel Rogers is trying to force people to subscribe to), they were all available on the radio and baseball has always been synonymous with radio.  The game's pace lends itself to that particular medium as the announcer isn't trying to describe 16 simultaneous events like they would in a basketball or hockey game.  When I wasn't playing ball myself, I would be listening to the Blue Jays in the great years of Moseby, Bell, and Barfield, with Dave Stieb on the mound and Tony Fernandez at short.

Tom Cheek (along with Jerry Howarth) was the voice of those Blue Jays teams and I when I think of the Jays on the radio, I think of Tom's voice and the way that it just seemed to BE baseball.  Listening to the Toronto radio stations replay some of his calls today brings back a lot of memories of what baseball on the radio can be to a kid who loves the sport.

So, after a career in which he called 4306 consecutive baseball games (starting with the Blue Jays first ever game in 1977), a career and life cut short by cancer, hearty congratulations are in order for Tom Cheek and his family.  I'm sure that wherever he is, he'll touch 'em all.